Beyond point forecasting: Evaluation of alternative prediction intervals for tourist arrivals

This paper evaluates the performances of prediction intervals generated from alternative time series models, in the context of tourism forecasting. The forecasting methods considered include the autoregressive (AR) model, the AR model using the bias-corrected bootstrap, seasonal ARIMA models, innovations state space models for exponential smoothing, and Harvey’s structural time series models. We use thirteen monthly time series for the number of tourist arrivals to Hong Kong and Australia. The mean coverage rates and widths of the alternative prediction intervals are evaluated in an empirical setting. It is found that all models produce satisfactory prediction intervals, except for the autoregressive model. In particular, those based on the bias-corrected bootstrap perform best in general, providing tight intervals with accurate coverage rates, especially when the forecast horizon is long.     

Stock return predictability and the adaptive markets hypothesis: Evidence from century-long U.S. data

This paper provides strong evidence of time-varying return predictability of the Dow Jones Industrial Average index from 1900 to 2009. Return predictability is found to be driven by changing market conditions, consistent with the implication of the adaptive markets hypothesis. During market crashes, no statistically significant return predictability is observed, but return predictability is associated with a high degree of uncertainty. In times of economic or political crises, stock returns have been highly predictable with a moderate degree of uncertainty in predictability. We find that return predictability has been smaller during economic bubbles than in normal times. We also find evidence that return predictability is associated with stock market volatility and economic fundamentals.     

Segmenting Overseas Golf Tourists by the Concept of Specialization

A main goal of this study was to use the concept of specialization to segment and better understand Korean overseas golf holiday tourists' demographics, motivations, overseas golf tourism destination attributes, and preference for overseas golf tourism destination attributes. A total of 424 questionnaires were collected and 370 questionnaires were used for further statistical analysis. According to results of data analyses, the advanced segment was more likely to be motivated by the quality of overseas golf resorts and other benefits (such as business opportunities), compared to the beginner and intermediate segments. The beginner group was more likely to be a company employee or housewife who earn the least at between US$35,000–US$50,000 per annum, travel on full package tours, use information from family or relatives, and have a stronger preference for the Philippines or China as golf destinations. The study's results showed potential benefits using the concept of specialization in a sport tourism setting even though the concept has been popularly applied in the outdoor setting.     

Inflation in a newly industrialized country: The case of Korea

This paper investigates the nature and causes of inflation in Korea, a newly industrialized country. The basic framework is the two-way causation between prices and wages. The estimated results show that the postulated hypotheses are upheld and that there are multiple causes of inflation. In particular, capital and material costs, which may be considered as external factor costs in Korea, play a significant role, implying that the impact of external inflation on internal inflation in a rapidly developing country is substantial.     

Diversifying acquisitions and financial relationships: Testing 1974-1976 behaviour

Fifty-four diverisifying acquisitions in manufacturing and mining industries from 1974 to 1976 are investigated in terms of sales growth rate, rate of return on assets, and current ratio of the acquiring and acquired companies. The average characteristics of acquired companies, classified by the characteristics of their acquiring companies, are compared. Results indicate significant structural matches between the acquired and acquiring companies to exploit strengths and avoid weaknesses in growth, profitability, and liquidity. It appears that firms try to balance their business segments in terms of product life cycle stages within a limit of maintaining proper levels of profit.     

Antecedents of travellers’ repurchase behaviour for luxury cruise product

This study proposed and tested a theoretical model in which image congruence, affect, satisfaction, switching costs, and trust have an influence on travellers’ decision to repurchase a luxury cruise product by considering the moderating impact of conspicuousness. The model was evaluated using a quantitative approach. The original model included a satisfactory fit and prediction power. The results of the structural analysis revealed that the hypothesized associations between the study variables were generally supported, and such variables had a significant mediating role. In addition, conspicuousness of product use had a moderating impact on the affect–satisfaction–switching costs linkages. Moreover, the prominent role of satisfaction and trust was identified. The findings of this study extended our understanding of the complex of the relationships among study variables in forming luxury cruise passengers’ repurchase intention.     

Effect of credit guarantee policy on survival and performance of SMEs in Republic of Korea

This study evaluates the effect of credit guarantee on SMEs at the firm level. To estimate the effect of credit guarantee, we analyze relations between credit guarantee, the survival of guaranteed firms, and their productive performance. The result indicates that credit guarantee frequency enabled guaranteed firms to achieve good performances in general. On the contrary, the effect of guarantee amounts is ambiguous in that there is difference between the contemporary effect and the lagged effect. Therefore, we conclude that credit guarantee satisfied partially its goal to alleviate SMEs’ difficulty in acquiring finance and to stabilize employment.

Analyst reputation and management earnings forecasts

Prior studies show that analysts with high reputation are influential in the market. This paper examines whether managers consider analyst reputation in shaping their voluntary disclosure strategy. Using Institutional Investor magazine’s All-American (AA) rankings as a proxy for analyst reputation, we find that the coverage of AA analysts is positively associated with the likelihood of quarterly management earnings forecasts (MEFs). We also find that AA analysts’ forecast optimism is more positively associated with the likelihood of MEFs than non-AA analysts’ forecast optimism when the firm is covered by AA analysts. Analyses based on AA analyst coverage changes and AA status changes confirm the relation between analyst reputation and MEFs. We further find that analyst reputation influences other MEF properties, such as forecast news, bias, and revisions, and that our results are robust to alternative measures of analyst reputation. Further analyses show that market reactions at quarterly earnings announcements are more positive (negative) when firms meet/beat (miss) AA analysts’ forecasts than when firms meet/beat (miss) non-AA analysts’ forecasts. Collectively, our findings suggest that managers strategically provide voluntary forecasts by taking into account the reputation of individual analysts following their firms.     

State-owned enterprises' political capital,city administrative rank and economic resources acquisition: Empirical evidence from Chinese capital markets

This paper examines the impact of Chinese State-Owned Enterprises' (SOE) corporate political capital and the administrative rank of the city where the firm is located on their ability to acquire economic resources. The study found that the stronger the political capital owned by SOEs and the higher the administrative rank of the cities in which SOEs were located, the easier it was for them to obtain more loans and subsidies. We also found that as the city administrative rank increased, the positive effect of SOEs' political capital on economic resources acquisition also increased. When SOEs were divided into commercial competitive versus specific functional enterprises, the administrative rank of the city in which the enterprise was located played a significant positive role in obtaining economic resources for commercial competitive enterprises, while the role of their political capital played a limited role. For specific functional enterprises, their own political capital played the more significant positive role. This paper expands the research scope of corporate political connections with a new perspective.     

The work–family interface in Korea: can family life enrich work life?

Using data obtained from 363 Korean civil servants, we examine the mechanism of family-to-work enrichment. Although individualistic Western work–family literature predicts that resources from the family role, both instrumental and affective, will improve the work role by mitigating the negative job stress–job satisfaction relationship, data from collectivistic Korean society show an unexpected opposite effect – an accentuating, not a mitigating moderating effect. Family resources – especially affective resources – may function as an additional work stressor rather than enrich the work role under collectivists' weak identity separation between work and family roles. This study thus reveals the cultural biases in the extant Western work–family literature by showing that the cultural variance in role identity separation/integration may underlie the mechanism of family-to-work enrichment.