The first Great Divergence and the evolution of cross-country income inequality during the last millennium: the role of institutions and culture

Using a millennium of data for 12 countries in the East and in the West, this article tests the extent to which contracting institutions, property right institutions and culture can explain economic development and the Great Divergence. It is tested whether these theories influence growth through science and technology or through human capital or channels that are independent of these two channels. It is found that culture, contracting institutions and property right institutions have all been relevant for growth and development.     

Leading Indicators of Currency Crises: Are They the Same in Different Exchange Rate Regimes?

We investigate whether leading indicators of currency crises differ across exchange rate regimes using data for 88 countries in the period 1981–2010. Our estimates suggest that in fixed exchange rate regimes external indicators, such as deviations of the real exchange rate from trend and the growth of international reserves, have the strongest predictive power. In contrast, in floating exchange rate regimes monetary policy and credibility indicators, such as domestic credit growth and inflation, are the best leading indicators of currency crises. Both credibility and external economic indicators have predictive power in intermediate exchange rate regimes.     

Women's work and wages in the sixteenth century and Sweden's position in the ‘little divergence’

We use a unique source from the Swedish royal demesnes to examine the work and relative wages of women in sixteenth-century Sweden, an economic laggard in the early modern period. The source pertains to workers hired on yearly contracts, a type more representative of historical labour markets than day labour on large construction sites, and this allows us to observe directly the food consumed by workers. We speak to the debate on the ‘little divergence’ within Europe, as women's work and gender differentials in pay is a key indicator of women's relative autonomy and seen as a cause for the economic ascendency of the North Sea region during the period. We find small gender differentials among both unskilled and skilled workers, indicating that Sweden was a part of the ‘golden age’ for women. We argue that despite superficial equality, women's economic outlooks were restrained in many other ways – including their access to higher-skilled work and jobs in the expanding parts of the economy – adding important nuance to the discussion about the relationship between women's social position and economic growth in the early modern period.