The Status of Lobbying in Croatia

The positions of lobbying and the lobbyist, well established in developed democratic societies, are far less clear in transitional countries. The aim of this paper is to present the current status of lobbying in Croatia through a discussion of its reputation in the media, citizens’ attitudes and the perceptions of business sector representatives. For that purpose, three groups of research results are presented. (1) In order to characterize the reputation of lobbying in the media, the results of a quantitative content analysis of information published in daily and weekly newspapers, magazines and on Internet portals are given. (2) To understand the attitudes of citizens to lobbying, the views of the young are considered. (3) Finally, to define perceptions of lobbying in the public sector and business, the results of a survey conducted among 50 employees in government institutions and 50 in the enterprise sector are presented and analyzed.     

Great Recession and Macroeconomic Theory: A Useless Crisis?

ABSTRACT

The global financial crisis of 2007–08 and the subsequent Great Recession have pushed many economists to acknowledge a fundamental limit in the theoretical models elaborated after the monetarist counter-revolution: these models disregard the financial system. The years following the Great Recession have thus been marked by the development of what can be called the ‘Financial Frictions Approach’, a theoretical approach based on the addition of the financial system to the New Keynesian DSGE model. The results of this line of research are beginning to appear also in macroeconomics textbooks. Significant examples are the publication of the seventh edition of Blanchard’s textbook, and the publication of the third edition of the textbook co-authored by Blanchard, Amighini and Giavazzi. The objective of this work is twofold: (i) to show that the new model presented by Blanchard, Amighini and Giavazzi, which reflects the results of the ‘Financial Frictions Approach’, does not allow to elaborate a coherent explanation of the Great Recession and (ii) to present the pillars of an alternative theoretical model based on the lessons of Keynes, Schumpeter and Minsky.     

Drivers of productivity in Vietnamese SMEs: the role of management standards and innovation

Using a rich panel dataset of small and medium scale manufacturing enterprises (SMEs) active in the manufacturing sector in Viet Nam, this paper investigates the drivers of firm productivity, focusing on the role played by international management standards certification. We test the hypothesis that, accounting for technological innovation (product and process) and other variables related to technological capabilities, international standards are conducive to higher productivity, through improved management practices and business organization. In line with the requirement of continuous improvement implied by most international standards, the main findings show that the possession of an internationally recognized standard certificate leads to significant productivity premium. We further find that the effect of certification on productivity is particularly strong for firms with technological innovation, located in southern provinces, and operating in more scale-intensive industries.     

Investment opportunities in the source country and temporary migration

Abstract This paper examines how attractive investment opportunities available to temporary migrants at home affect their saving behaviour and the optimal duration of stay abroad. The model predicts an inverse U‐shaped relationship between migration duration and the expected rate of return on repatriated savings. A higher rate provides an incentive to go back earlier and consume less abroad, while it can also trigger emigration aimed at generating the savings required for investment after return. The paper illustrates how the behaviour of temporary migrants reflects the interaction between their preferences and the opportunities available in labour and capital markets of both countries.     

Credit allocation and the financial crisis: evidence from Spanish companies

The worldwide financial crisis of 2007–2008 raised serious concerns about the soundness of banks’ activities and about the extent to which banking regulation should supervise banks’ investment decisions. We contribute to this topic by examining the Spanish case, which has been emblematic of the bubble and burst dynamics in the credit market. In particular, we study the allocation of bank credit among Spanish companies from 1999 to 2014, showing that larger companies accumulated greater amounts of bank loans per unit of total assets, thus leading to a notable concentration. We also find that, during the Spanish boom period, bank loans shifted from the manufacturing to the construction industry, and in particular to the largest companies of the latter sector. This happened in spite of the high leverage of large construction firms, which was increasing also due to their growing debt. We argue that the higher operating benefits, reflecting the increase of the housing price during the boom period, overvalued construction firms as potential borrowers. The bankruptcy of several large construction companies during the Spanish crisis supports the need for monitoring and regulation, to avoid an excessive concentration of bank credit to a few large companies, especially if they belong to a specific sector.

     

The role of satisfaction in labor diaspora dynamics: An analysis of BREXIT effects

In diaspora research, people's international mobility is often understood as a response to pull-push forces on an economic macro-level or as part of diasporic waves. However, labor diaspora formations are also influenced by micro-level (i.e., individual perceptions) drivers related to work per se, such as satisfaction. This explorative qualitative study takes a novel angle and focuses on the role of Portuguese nurses’ satisfaction with the evaluation of the Brexit scenario and its effects on this labor diaspora's mobility and stability. The findings illustrate that satisfaction, although affected by uncertainty, mainly relates to perceived working conditions and legislation and the possibilities to communicate with locals and other diasporans. This paper provides suggestions for future research and contributes to the development of theory on staying and human stickiness, explaining the dynamics of exit and entry in (re-)migration decision making.     

Inflation in New EU Member States: A Domestically or Externally Driven Phenomenon?

This article empirically analyzes the domestic and external inflation determinants for eight non-eurozone new EU member states (NMS), using a structural vector autoregression model. Results indicate that foreign shocks are a major factor in explaining inflation dynamics in the medium run, while the short-run inflation dynamics are mainly influenced by domestic shocks. Moreover, the importance of the foreign inflation component has had a rising trend in the precrisis period in all NMS and mostly coincided with their accession to the EU. This trend ended with the onset of the global financial crisis. The study implicates the need to augment the classical Taylor rule with foreign factors in the case of small open economies.     

Valuing Mortgage Insurance Contracts in Emerging Market Economies

We develop a new option-based method for the valuation of mortgage insurance contracts in closed form in an economy where agents are risk neutral. While the proposed valuation method is general and can be used in any market, it may be particularly useful in emerging market economies where other existing methods may be either inappropriate or are too difficult to implement because of the lack of relevant data. As an application, we price a typical Serbian government-backed mortgage insurance contract.     

Fed funds futures variance futures

We develop a novel contract design, the fed funds futures (FFF) variance futures, which reflects the expected realized basis point variance of an underlying FFF rate. The valuation of short-term FFF variance futures is completely model-independent in a general setting that includes the cases where the underlying FFF rate exhibits jumps and where the realized variance is computed by sampling the FFF rate discretely. The valuation of longer-term FFF variance futures is subject to an approximation error which we quantify and show is negligible. We also provide an illustrative example of the practical valuation and use of the FFF variance futures contract.     

Origins of regional divergence: economic growth in socialist Yugoslavia†

Relative to western Europe, we know very little about the determinants of economic growth at the regional level within socialist Europe. This is somewhat unusual, given that socialist policy-makers have put great emphasis on equitable regional development. This article analyses the regional patterns of growth and divergence in socialist Yugoslavia. New estimates of output and inputs are constructed, and an analysis of output growth, factor accumulation, structural modernization, and productivity is provided. Two novel empirical findings are uncovered. The first is that the sources of growth across the regions were fundamentally different. Total factor productivity was a much more important source of growth in the richer regions than it was in the poorer ones. The second finding is that the source of the regional income divergence lies in the failure of the less developed regions to converge towards the employment rates and total factor productivities of the more developed regions. These failures are interpreted, at least partially, as symptoms of the governing objective and the soft budget constraint of the labour-managed firms that operated in Yugoslavia. It is argued that Yugoslavia's development model was less suited to the pre-conditions that prevailed in the less developed parts of the country.