The demographic cycle and optimal schooling choices

A model is developed that enables the authors to estimate the effects of demographic cycles on both earnings and schooling. The model is tested using data from the 1991 Korean Occupational Wage Survey. The results indicate that cohorts following large birth cohorts in the cycle choose relatively less formal schooling compared to pre-peak cohorts, and that post-peak cohorts also have lower incomes. This result concerning South Korea is consistent with findings from previous studies concerning the United States.     

THE EFFECTS OF VERTICAL MARKETS ON TRADE POLICY REFORM

Typically, analysis of trade liberalization ignores the impactthat intermediate stages in the production and distributionsystem may have on the pass-through of changes in tariffs tofinal goods' prices. Using a model of a multi-stage system,this paper shows that both the number of vertical stages andthe degree of imperfect competition at any specific stage canaffect the degree of tariff pass-through. Simulation of themodel with respect to recent changes in the European Union bananaregime suggests that ignoring vertical market structure is likelyto over-estimate the benefits to consumers of trade liberalization.     

Roads, Land Use, and Deforestation: A Spatial Model Applied to Belize

Rural roads promote economic development, but they also facilitatedeforestation. To explore this tradeoff, this article developsa spatially explicit model of land use and estimates probabilitiesof alternative land uses as a function of land characteristicsand distance to market using a multinomial logit specificationof this model. Controls are incorporated for the endogeneityof road placement. The model is applied to data for southern Belize, an area experiencingrapid expansion of both subsistence and commercial agriculture,using geographic information system (GIS) techniques to selectsample points at 1-kilometer intervals. Market access, landquality, and tenure status affect the probability of agriculturalland use synergistically, having differential effects on thelikelihood of commercial versus semisubsistence farming. Theresults suggest that road building in areas with agriculturallypoor soils and low population densities may be a "lose-lose"proposition, causing habitat fragmentation and providing loweconomic returns.     

Health care fraud control: understanding the challenge

The study summarized here examined the fraud-control apparatus currently used within the health care industry, and assessed the assumptions, policies, and systems that constitute the industry's current approaches to fraud control. The objective was to develop a better understanding of the strengths and weaknesses of existing approaches. Since 1992, with Health Care Reform under debate, the issue of health care fraud has received unprecedented legislative and administrative attention. Nevertheless disturbing and somewhat surprising lapses in control persist. The fraud problem shows no sign of abatement. Background knowledge of the health care fraud issue was derived from literature searches and from four years of interaction with concerned public and private organizations. Fraud control systems, policies and procedures were examined in detail at eight field sites, representing a cross section of private, not-for-profit, and public programs. The National Institute of Justice funded the study under grant number #94-IJ-CX-K004. This study finds the science of fraud control scarcely developed and little understood by industry practitioners. Academia has paid little attention to the problem. Within the health care industry, the task of fraud control is complicated by the social acceptability of insurers as targets, the invisible nature of most fraud schemes, the separation between administrative budgets and "funds", the respectability of the health care profession, and the absence of clear distinctions between criminal fraud and other forms of abuse. Existing approaches to control are more effective in controlling billing errors, overutilization, medical unorthodoxy, and other forms of abuse than in dealing with criminal fraud. The complexity of the fraud control challenge is seriously underestimated by the health care industry Existing control systems are not targeted on criminal fraud and cannot be expected to control it. Scientific measurement of the fraud problem is a prerequisite effective control.     

What's wrong with strategy?

Why is it that successful strategies are rarely developed as a result of formal planning processes? What is wrong with the way most companies go about developing strategy? Andrew Campbell and Marcus Alexander take a common sense look at why the planning frameworks managers use so often yield disappointing results. Companies often fail to distinguish between purpose (what an organization exists to do) and constraints (what an organization must do in order to survive), the authors say. Many executives mistakenly believe, for example, that satisfying stakeholders is an objective that drives thinking about strategy. In fact, it's a constraint, not an objective. Companies that don't win the loyalty of stakeholders will go out of business. Strategy is not about plans but about insights, the authors add. Strategy development is the process of discovering and understanding insights and should not be confused with planning, which is about turning insights into action. Furthermore, because executives develop most of their insights while actually doing the real work of running a business, it is important for companies not to separate strategy development from implementation. Is there a better way? The answer is not new planning processes or more effort. Instead, managers must understand two fundamental points: the benefit of having a well-articulated, stable purpose and the importance of discovering, understanding, documenting, and exploiting insights about how to create value.     

Developing products on Internet time

The rise of the World Wide Web has provided one of the most challenging environments for product development in recent history. The market needs that a product is meant to satisfy and the technologies required to satisfy them can change radically--even as the product is under development. In response to such factors, companies have had to modify the traditional product-development process, in which design implementation begins only once a product's concept has been determined in its entirety. In place of that traditional approach, they have pioneered a flexible product-development process that allows designers to continue to define and shape products even after implementation has begun. This innovation enables Internet companies to incorporate rapidly evolving customer requirements and changing technologies into their designs until the last possible moment before a product is introduced to the market. Flexible product development has been most fully realized in the Internet environment because of the turbulence found there, but the foundations for it exist in a wide range of industries where the need for responsiveness is paramount. When technology, product features, and competitive conditions are predictable or evolve slowly, a traditional development process works well. But when new competitors and technologies appear overnight, when standards and regulations are in flux, and when a company's entire customer base can easily switch to other suppliers, businesses don't need a development process that resists change--they need one that embraces it.