Fractal market time

Ané and Geman (2000) observed that market returns appear to follow a conditional Gaussian distribution where the conditioning is a stochastic clock based on cumulative transaction count. The existence of long range dependence in the squared and absolute value of market returns is a ‘stylized fact’ and researchers have interpreted this to imply that the stochastic clock is self-similar, multi-fractal (Mandelbrot, Fisher and Calvet, 1997) or mono-fractal (Heyde, 1999). We model the market stochastic clock as the stochastic integrated intensity of a doubly stochastic Poisson (Cox) point process of the cumulative transaction count of stocks traded on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). A comparative empirical analysis of a self-normalized version of the stochastic integrated intensity is consistent with a mono-fractal market clock with a Hurst exponent of 0.75.     

Racial Discrimination and Mortgage Lending

Looking at a sample of conventional fixed-rate mortgages, this paper examines whether lending practices are consistent with the competitive hypothesis that the racial and ethnic composition of the borrower??s neighborhood affects the contract rate charged only to the extent that these characteristics objectively influence the probability of the loan defaulting or prepaying. Our results, however, reject this hypothesis, showing instead that borrowers in predominantly black neighborhoods pay a significantly higher contract rate than is consistent with evidence of their behavior.     

后金融危机时代实体经济的发展

金融危机远未结束,但世界经济增长是可以预期的。除了一些较小的欧洲国家之外,收入下降充其量也只是个小问题,最大的问题是失业,失业本身具有很大的危害性。欧元区要实现经济复苏,政府开支应该增加5%左右。世界需求的减少对中国经济的影响是有限的,当出口急剧下降时,中国经济以几乎相同的速度继续增长。中国目前已进入设计和创新更为重要的阶段,应该更多地发明自己的技术,创造自己的品牌,设计自己原创的产品。中国应该没有劳动力短缺的问题,但教育非常重要。到2020年之前,中国经济增长将减缓。未来除了人们的收入会增加之外,一切都是不确定的。     

A Dynamic Analysis of the Demand for Life Insurance

Prior research suggests that neither the choice to own life insurance nor the amount purchased is consistently related to the presence of children in the household. While these perplexing findings are based on a static framework, we alternatively examine life insurance demand in a dynamic framework as a function of changes in household life cycle and financial condition. Our results indicate both a statistically and economically significant relation between life events, such as new parenthood, and the demand for life insurance. We also provide new evidence in support of the emergency fund hypothesis: households in which either spouse has become unemployed are more likely than other households to surrender their whole life insurance.     

Imperfect credibility and the zero lower bound

As the nominal interest rate cannot fall below zero, a central bank with imperfect credibility faces a significant challenge to stabilize the economy in a New Keynesian model during a large recession. We characterize the optimal monetary policy at the zero lower bound for the nominal interest rate if credibility is imperfect. Confronting monetary policy communication of the U.S. Federal Reserve and the Swedish Riksbank with such a framework, the credibility of both institutions is shown to have been low in the aftermath of the 2008 economic crisis.     

Vertical integration to avoid contracting with potential competitors: Evidence from bankers' banks

We examine a vertical integration decision within the commercial banking industry. During the last quarter of the 20th century, some community banks reduced their traditional reliance on correspondent banks for upstream products and services by joining bankers' banks, a form of business cooperative. Research on vertical integration focuses primarily on firm-specific investment, market power, and government regulation. However, this case is difficult to explain in terms of these standard vertical integration motives. Our evidence suggests that bankers' banks are a response to technological change and deregulation that results in increased costs faced by community banks in dealing with correspondent banks as both suppliers and potential competitors. For instance, loan participations require sharing proprietary information about major loan customers, something a community bank would not want to provide to a potential competitor.     

Earnings conference calls and stock returns: The incremental informativeness of textual tone

Quarterly earnings conference calls are becoming a more pervasive tool for corporate disclosure. However, the extent to which the market embeds information contained in the tone (i.e. sentiment) of conference call wording is unknown. Using computer aided content analysis, we examine the incremental informativeness of quarterly earnings conference calls and the corresponding market reaction. We find that conference call linguistic tone is a significant predictor of abnormal returns and trading volume. Furthermore, conference call tone dominates earnings surprises over the 60 trading days following the call. The question and answer portion of the call has incremental explanatory power for the post-earnings-announcement drift and this significance is primarily concentrated in firms that do not pay dividends, illustrating differences in investor behavior based on the level of cash flow uncertainty. Additionally, we find that a context specific linguistic dictionary is more powerful than a more widely used general dictionary (Harvard IV-4 Psychosocial).     

Gibrat’s Law with Mild Nonrandom Growth

Gibrat’s Law (GL) has repeatedly failed to gain full empirical confirmation in specific industries. This study offers a deliberately favorable opportunity for full confirmation in the truckload sector of the U.S. trucking industry where firms are highly homogeneous. As such, most nonrandom determinants of growth remain very similar for all firms, so significant differences in growth rates are not expected. Still, there is only incomplete support: (1) long term growth rates are not equal for all firms, but the differences are small and not size-related except for the smallest firms, and (2) the size distributions better approximate lognormal when the smallest firms are excluded, but in no case does the variance rise over time. This suggests that for most other industries, where nonrandom growth should be much stronger, GL would seem unlikely to play more than a minor role in portraying actual firm growth or the evolution of market structure.     

Customer value propositions in business markets

Examples of consumer value propositions that resonate with customers are exceptionally difficult to find. When properly constructed, value propositions force suppliers to focus on what their offerings are really worth. Once companies become disciplined about understanding their customers, they can make smarter choices about where to allocate scarce resources. The authors illuminate the pitfalls of current approaches, then present a systematic method for developing value propositions that are meaningful to target customers and that focus suppliers' efforts on creating superior value. When managers construct a customer value proposition, they often simply list all the benefits their offering might deliver. But the relative simplicity of this all-benefits approach may have a major drawback: benefit assertion. In other words, managers may claim advantages for features their customers don't care about in the least. Other suppliers try to answer the question, Why should our firm purchase your offering instead of your competitor's? But without a detailed understanding of the customer's requirements and preferences, suppliers can end up stressing points of difference that deliver relatively little value to the target customer. The pitfall with this approach is value presumption: assuming that any favorable points of difference must be valuable for the customer. Drawing on the best practices of a handful of suppliers in business markets, the authors advocate a resonating focus approach. Suppliers can provide simple, yet powerfully captivating, consumer value propositions by making their offerings superior on the few elements that matter most to target customers, demonstrating and documenting the value of this superior performance, and communicating it in a way that conveys a sophisticated understanding of the customer's business priorities.     

The Role of Ownership in Managing Interfirm Opportunism: A Dyadic Study

We extend research on transaction cost theory that shows that vertical integration enables firms to protect their investments in exchange relationships better than market mechanisms. However, extant research finds ownership to exacerbate, rather than limit, exchange partner opportunism. Hence, the purpose of this study is to investigate conditions under which ownership can be effective for constraining an exchange partner's opportunism. Using matched dyadic data for 296 hotel brands, we conduct multi-level hierarchical linear modeling and identify conditions under which common ownership limits hotel opportunism. Findings indicate that ownership can limit hotel opportunism when brand headquarters can easily monitor the hotel's activities.