Humor and cognitive responses to advertising stimuli: A trace consolidation approach

Despite the predictions of several attitude change theories, most empirical research suggests that humorous communications are no more persuasive than their serious counterparts. The present study adopted a trace consolidation theory approach and tested the hypothesis that humorous appeals are more persuasive than serious appeals when time for trace consolidation is allowed. The trace consolidation theory hypothesis was supported most directly by shifts in cognitive responses. On some measures, sex differences were also observed. Specifically, males were found to be more susceptible than females to the humorous persuasive appeal.     

Sales expectations and inventory changes in retail trade

In this paper a single equation inventory investment model is estimated for the United States retail sector. Monthly data for the 1970s are utilized. In estimating the model it is alternatively assumed that expectations were formed according to a seasonal model, to perfect foresight, and to a narrowly rational expectations model. We find that a model in which expected sales and the expected rate of inflation are narrowly rational can explain most of the variation in retail inventory investment during the time period studied. The results of the estimation imply that retailers have a relatively short forecast horizon, that they can react quickly to either unexpected sales or to a deviation of actual from desired inventory stocks, and that an increase in the real of interest has a statistically negative impact on retail inventory investment.     

Prospects for the international oil market

The OPEC price conference in Geneva on May 25–26, 1981 did not resolve the disagreement among OPEC member countries over official prices. As a result of this stalemate, Saudi Arabia with its intention to moderate prices will in the foreseeable future probably not be prepared to make substantial reductions in its high volume of production with which it puts pressure on prices. What short- and medium-term perspectives for the international oil market arise from this situation?     

United States concessions in the Kennedy Round and short-run labor adjustment costs

This paper reports on an econometric analysis of the exemptions awarded to United States industries from the across-the-board 50 percent tariff cut imposed in the Kennedy Round. It is shown that as much as 50 percent of the inter-industry variation in reductions in nominal tariff and non-tariff rates may be accounted for by variables that proxy labor adjustment costs. In particular, certain industrial characteristics are significantly related to the Kennedy Round reductions: declining industries, and industries with a high proportion of unskilled or old workers, are associated with low reductions.     

Macroeconomic stabilization through monetary and fiscal policy coordination: Implications for European Monetary Union

In a two-country model, we consider the implications of monetary and fiscal policy coordination for macroeconomic stabilization. We show that the optimal regime is one of monetary and fiscal policy coordination under flexible exchange rates. In the context of the European Community, this suggests that the desire to fix exchange rates may not be costless. In addition, we show that fiscal coordination requires a relatively high degree of flexibility in fiscal policy. This result suggests that limits on the flexibility of fiscal policies, as suggested in the Delors Report, may hinder macroeconomic stabilization.     

Debt rescheduling and the choice between bonds and loans for LDCs' foreign debt

This paper examines less developed country (LDC) borrowers' choice of financing methods. I devleop and test the hypothesis that ex-ante consideration of rescheduling affects LDC borrowers' choice between bonds and commercial loans. Banks can monitor and distinguish between permanent and temporary shocks, while bondholders cannot. Therefore, debt rescheduling based on the nature of economic shocks is feasible with loan financing. Our empirical findings indicate the debt rescheduling is considered exante in LDC lending. In addition, default risk and contract size affect the choice of financing instruments.     

Testing for non-linear dependence in inter-war exchange rates

Testing for Non-Linear Dependence in Inter-War Exchange Rates. — This paper tests weekly inter-war floating exchange rate data for the pound-dollar, pound-franc and pound-reichsmark for non-linearity. Initial tests reveal strong evidence of generic non-linearity in these series and indicate neglected non-linear structure in the residuals of linear representations. Attempts to model this structure using GARCH residual processes have only been partially successful. Thus, two parametric models of such non-linearity were estimated. Comparing the forecasts from these models shows the mean square forecast errors of linear-GARCH and bilinear models to be lower than those from linear forecasts for all series, and that SETAR model forecasts outperform all other models for the pound-dollar.