Modelling volatility by variance decomposition

In this paper, we propose two parametric alternatives to the standard GJR-GARCH model of Glosten et al. (1993), based on additive and multiplicative decompositions of the variance. They allow the variance of the model to have a smooth time-varying structure. The suggested parameterizations describe structural change in the conditional and unconditional variances where the transition between regimes over time is smooth. The main focus is on the multiplicative decomposition of the variance into an unconditional and conditional components. Estimation of the multiplicative model is discussed in detail. An empirical application to daily stock returns illustrates the functioning of the model. The results show that the ‘long memory type behaviour’ of the sample autocorrelation functions of the absolute returns can also be explained by deterministic changes in the unconditional variance.     

Turn-of-the-month and intramonth effects in government bond markets: Is there a role for macroeconomic news?

This paper focuses on the turn-of-the-month (TOM) and intramonth anomalies in government bond returns. In particular, we examine whether the TOM and intramonth effects exist in government bond markets, and moreover, whether these anomalies are related to the release of macroeconomic news as suggested in recent stock market studies. Using data on the 2-year and 10-year US Treasury Notes and German government bonds, we document a modest TOM effect in government bond returns. This effect does not disappear after controlling for the release of macroeconomic announcements, thereby suggesting that the origin of the TOM effect is not necessarily the same across asset classes.     

Intertemporal efficiency analysis of sales teams of a bank: Stochastic semi-nonparametric approach

The primary role of a bank branch is evolving from a service provider towards a sales channel. Previous branch-level studies of sales efficiency consider a static setting of a single time period, ignoring the stochastic nature of sales outcomes. In this paper, we examine efficiency and performance of sales teams in a bank branch network over time, taking into account the changing demand and operational conditions, as well as random disturbances. The intertemporal sales frontier is estimated from the panel of monthly data over the years 2007–2010 using the stochastic semi-nonparametric envelopment of data (StoNED) method. The efficiency scores of sales teams and the trajectories of performance over time allow managers and the sales force to learn from past events and to develop the managerial and work practices across the network. While this study focuses on the case of a specific bank, some of the innovative features of our approach are applicable to sales efficiency assessment in other banks and financial institutions, as well as other network-based sales organizations.     

Is corruption grease,grit or a gamble? Corruption increases variance of productivity across countries

The effect of corruption on economic growth has attracted interest in empirical development economics. The conventional view of corruption as impediment for growth has been challenged by the ‘grease-on-the-wheels’ hypothesis. We take a new perspective on the issue and suggest corruption as macro risk, referred to as a ‘gamble’ hypothesis. Using cross-country data and two alternative indicators of corruption, we find corruption to be a significant driver of heteroscedasticity in total productivity. This supports the new gamble hypothesis. We also note some misleading interpretations in the previously published frontier applications. To avoid these shortcomings, we apply a flexible semi-nonparametric estimator.     

Testing parameter constancy in linear models against stochastic stationary parameters

This paper considers testing parameter constancy in a linear model when the alternative is that a subset of the parameters follows a stationary vector autoregressive process of known finite order. This kind of a linear model is only identified under the alternative, which usually precludes finding a test statistic with an analytic null distribution. In the present situation, however, it is still possible to derive a test statistic with an asymptotic chi-squared distribution under the null hypothesis and this is done in the paper. The small-sample properties of the test statistic are investigated by simulation and found statisfactory. The test retains its power when the alternative to parameter constancy is a random walk parameter process.     

The Political Economy of Occupational Family Policies: Comparing Workplaces in Britain and Germany

With a shift in the political debate to more market‐driven social policy approaches during the past decade, politicians in a number of European countries have argued that employers should take on greater responsibilities in the provision of social policy. But why should employers get involved? After reviewing the relevant literature on firm‐level social policy, we analyse the conditions and causal pathways that lead to their provision. Our findings show that (i) the skill structure and level of the workforce are important conditions for firm‐level engagement; (ii) employers have usually been the ‘protagonists’; (iii) the role of unions has been more limited — in Germany they can largely be characterized as ‘consenters’, whereas in Britain, their impact is negligible; (iv) in accordance with the specific systems of industrial relations, the design in Germany very much follows the concept of social partnership; in Britain the design is usually based on unilateral management decisions; and (v) based on these conditions and causal pathways, ‘enclave social policy’ is the likely result of the expansionary policy development, although in Germany, these policies have the potential of becoming an element of ‘industrial citizenship’.     

The Fed's policy decisions and implied volatility

This study examines how the Fed's monetary policy decisions affect the implied volatility of the S&P 500 index. The results show that stock market uncertainty is significantly affected by the Fed's policy decisions. In particular, we find that implied volatility generally decreases after FOMC meetings, while the relationship between target rate surprises and market uncertainty appears positive. However, our results also suggest that the apparent positive relationship between policy surprises and implied volatility is mostly driven by the volatility‐reducing effects of negative surprises. We further document that implied volatility is affected by both scheduled and unscheduled policy actions, with the scheduled path surprises having the strongest impact on volatility. Finally, our findings indicate that the impact of monetary policy decisions on implied volatility is more pronounced during periods of expansive policy. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark     

Specification and Estimation of Production Functions Involving Damage Control Inputs: A Two-Stage, Semiparametric Approach

Productivity assessment of damage control inputs (such as pesticides) is complicated because their effect depends on the exposure to damage agents (such as pests). We discuss some open specification and estimation issues. The contribution is threefold. First, we elaborate the separability conditions for the damage control function and production function. Second, we employ a two-stage semiparametric technique to combine attractive features of both nonparametric and parametric approaches. Third, we model the interaction between pest exposure and damage control inputs by using slope dummies. An application to productivity analysis of small scale Bt cotton production in China illustrates the approach.