Uniform Commercial Policy, Illegal Trade, and the Real Exchange Rate: A Theoretical Analysis

Countries on fixed exchange rates sometimes use uniform tariffcum subsidy (UTCS) schemes as a way of achieving a real depreciationwithout disturbing the nominal exchange rate. A potential drawbackof this policy in relation to an across-the-board devaluationis that a UTCS scheme provides incentives for illegal trade.Using an optimizing model with currency convertibility and illegaltrade. I find that welfare is lower under a UTCS scheme thanunder a corresponding across-the-board devaluation and thatin some cases the real exchange rate actually appreciates inresponse to an increase in the UTCS rate.     

A note on forecasting international tourism demand in Spain

This paper considers the extent to which price and income proxy variables help in forecasting tourist demand in Spain. Contrary to some recent studies, we found that the inputs' contribution in terms of fitting and forecasting is nil when compared with alternative univariate models. Whether these findings are the results of the restrictions embedded in building the proxy inputs or in a poor specification of the dynamics of these models remains to be seen. We also contend that when dealing with medium, long-term forecasting comparisons, the use of the traditional aggregate accuracy measures like RMSE and MAPE help very little in discriminating among competing models. In these situations, predicted annual growth rates may be a better alternative.     

Changes in REIT Liquidity 1990–1994: Evidence from Intra-day Transactions

This study uses data on intra-day transactions to analyze whether real estate investment (REIT) liquidity as measured by the bid-ask spread changed from 1990 to 1994, a period during which the industry's market capitalization increased from $8.7 billion to $45 billion. REIT percentage spreads (spread as percentage of share price) narrowed significantly, primarily attributable to higher share prices rather than narrower dollar-value spreads. An empirical model is used to analyze the determinants of percentage spreads. Return variance and share price, not market capitalization are found to be the primary determinants of percentage spreads in both periods. This suggests that the liquidity of REIT securities is similar to that of non-REIT securities with similar prices and return variance. In addition, percentage spreads are wider for REITs trading on the NASDAQ.     

Optimal Generic Advertising with a Rationed Related Good: The Case of Canadian Beef and Chicken Markets

An optimal advertising rule is derived for a good sold in an open market (beef) when a related substitute good (chicken) is production rationed and whose imports are subject to trade restrictions. Such a rule is developed using a multi-market equilibrium displacement model that reflects demand interrelatedness, open trade of the advertised good (beef), with rationed production and restricted trade of the related good (chicken). The optimal rule nests earlier optimal advertising rules under a variety of conditions. Results underscore the importance of accounting for cross-product advertising effects. When these effects are present (absent), the optimal generic beef advertising intensity in Canada is shown to fall (rise) with elimination of supply management in Canada's chicken sector.
L'auteur dérive une règie sur l'optimisation de la publicité pour un produit vendu sur un marché libre (bœuf) en présence d'un produit de substitution rationné dont on restreint les importations. Pour parvenir à une telle règie, l'auteur a utilisé un modèle de déplacement du point d'équilibre sur un marché multiple illustrant les liens entre la demande des produits concernés, le libre-échange du produit faisant l'objet de la publicité (bœuf) et la restriction de la production et des importations du produit apparenté (poulet). La règie d'optimisation englobe les règles antérieures sur l'optimisation de la publicité dans diverses situations. Les résultats soulignent qu'il est important de prendre en compte les retombées de la publicité sur les autres produits. Au Canada, en présence (absence) de telles retombées, le degré optimal de publicité générique sur le bœuf diminue (augmente) avec l'abolition de la gestion de l'offre de poulet.