Why a new malpractice crisis is coming

This article predicts escalating premiums and a greater risk of malpractice suits based on the increasing frequency and cost of claim payouts. The number of insurance claims increased by 12% in 1978 after a decrease of 11% in 1976 and by 2% in 1977. The percentage of premium income paid out has followed the same pattern. It was a high of 66.5% in 1975 and then fell into the 40% range in the next two years. Last year it bounced back to 60.6%. Some insurance authorities view the 1976-77 drop in claims as artificial and attribute it to a reluctance to file suits during the period immediately following new malpractice laws. The reluctance to sue has apparently relaxed. About 16% of the cases actually go to court. Out of those, 90% of the verdicts favor doctors. The rise in cases going to court shows that reform! legislation passed in several states to reduce malpractice litigation is not yet working. The average payout was up 20% between 1976 and 1978 with the greatest rise in large awards; million-dollar settlements are not uncommon. Escalating payouts are attributed to general inflation anf rising medical costs. In addition, the public has become better medically informed and been taught that for every wrong ther is a remedy.     

Forecasting derived product demand in commercial construction

This article presents a practical scheme for forecasting derived demand for an industrial product used in the nonresidential construction industry. The method proposed includes a basic product requirement model to be used in conjunction with lagged construction award data. Twelve-month moving averages are used to smooth the basic construction contract award data which is analyzed by construction type and by geographic region.The methodology described enables accurate product sales potential estimation, and when compared with smoothed historical sales data, provides a means of evaluating market penetration. Although the method presented is concerned primarily with forecasting in the relatively short term, the scheme may be extended to a medium term corresponding roughly to the construction cycle. The article deals with application to a specific industry segment. However, the forecasting and evaluation procedure is adaptable to other industrial products.     

A passenger demand model for air transportation in a hub-and-spoke network

This paper develops an air passenger model that deals with city-pair demand generation and demand assignment in a single framework. Using publicly available and regularly collected panel data, the model captures both time series and cross-sectional variation of air travel demand. The empirical analysis finds that pattern of correlations among alternatives can be described by a three-level nested logit model. Fare, frequency, flight time, direct routing, on-time performance, income, and market distance have significantly effects on air demand. Correcting for the problem of endogenous air fares using instrumental variables yields more plausible estimates of price sensitivity and value of time.     

Agency Costs in Apartment Property Management Contracts

Because fees for property management services are based on gross rental collections rather than on net operating incomes, property managers may not always act in the best interest of property owners. This study is an examination of the agency costs that result from the conflict of interests between owners and managers. A nationwide proprietary sample of 242 apartment properties is analyzed to compare agency costs of four distinct types of ownership structures. Agency costs, measured as operating expenses per square foot, are found to be significantly higher for institutional owners than for noninstitutional owners, but not significantly higher in cases where no competition for property management services exists. We conclude that agency costs of property management contracts are significant and the fee provisions of standard property management contracts should be changed to better align the interests of managers and owners.     

Are there economies of scale in underwriting fees? Evidence of rising external financing costs

This study examines the behavior of spreads paid in firm underwrittenseasoned common stock offerings and straight bond offerings.Estimates indicate that up to 85% of the spread is variablecost and that the marginal spread is rising. Further, offeringsthat are likely to require greater underwriting services encounterhigher marginal spreads. These findings are consistent withthere being a family of U-shaped spreads, with lower qualityofferings priced on higher spreads, unlike the economies ofscale view of spreads. They agree with the views that underwritersprovide valuable services and that the marginal cost of externalfinance is rising.