The use of mixtures of market and experimental choice data in establishing guideline weights for evaluating competitive bids in a transport organisation

The government sector is increasingly using competitive bidding for service deliveries such as the provision of bus and rail services as well as the purchasing of professional engineering services such as project planning, design, and project supervision. As part of a program to simplify and introduce consistency in the tender evaluation process, one government transport agency in New Zealand financed a study to investigate the potential of combined revealed and stated preference methods as a way of establishing weights to attach to the criteria used to evaluate offers of engineering services. These techniques have mainly been used in the study of travel choices; yet they have a much broader appeal in studying the decision making process of organisations. In this paper we use a data-mixing model to capture the decision expertise of a transport organisation through the revelation of preference weights for each evaluation criterion. Using choice information based on both market-driven and experimentally derived choice sets, we should be able to increase the robustness of the evaluation weights in comparison to the weights obtained from single data-sourced models. The resulting parameterised tool can be used in subsequent tender evaluations to provide an additional source of advice to supplement or replace that provided by current members of a bid evaluation team.     

Energy use in the Namibian economy from 1995 to 1998

As part of a natural resource accounting project being undertaken in Namibia, energy accounts have been compiled and are used to analyse energy use by different economic sectors. Households account for most energy use, especially of traditional fuels, and many households continue to rely on firewood even when they have access to electricity. A new paraffin tax was introduced in 1999, because it was believed that the price differential between diesel (which was already taxed) and paraffin encouraged substitution, but there is little indication that substitution was actually taking place. The policy goal of increasing mines' use of electricity at the expense of fossil fuels appears to have been met during the period studied, but this is entirely due to the problems of one mining company which is expected to resume operations shortly. The results also suggest that there is room for improved efficiency in energy use for water supply, and that instituting measures against theft and non-payment of electricity might save substantial amounts of electricity.     

The Effects of Temporary Exchange-Rate-Based Stabilizations when Money Serves a Productive Role

This paper investigates the effects on production, consumption, and welfare that result from a temporary exchange-rate-based (ERB) stabilization plan. The analysis is based on a dynamic optimizing model of a small open economy where real money is assumed to be a factor that is used in the production of goods. The assumption of money serving a productive role makes the model capable of generating a boom-bust cycle in output, as is often experienced during ERB stabilization plans. It is shown that if the stabilization plan is expected not to be too short and/or the costs associated with the breakdown of the plan are not too high, a temporary decrease in the rate of exchange rate devaluation will increase economic welfare. It is also found that if some of the increase in output in the initial phase of the stabilization plan is saved for periods after the plan has broken down, there is a greater chance that the ERB plan will increase economic welfare. On the other hand, if the plan is not sufficiently credible at the outset, or there is not enough intertemporal transference of output, the stabilization plan is likely to be harmful to economic welfare.

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Capacity constraints, asymmetries, and the business cycle

We study how an occasionally binding capacity constraint affects the properties of business cycles. A real business cycle model is constructed where production takes place at individual plants and the number of plants operated varies over the cycle. The capacity constraint binds in states where all plants are operated. We derive the aggregate production function for this economy, which turns out to differ from the standard Cobb–Douglas function while retaining its desirable properties. The business cycle features of this one-sector growth model are similar to those of a standard real business cycle model in most respects. Our model does, however, display some properties of actual economies that standard models do not. In particular, business cycles in our model are asymmetric—troughs are deeper on average than peaks are tall. Also, labor's share of income is counter-cyclical, as it is in US data.     

Morphological analysis for health care systems planning

Health care planners are continually challenged by the difficulty of ordering and understanding of the complexities of health care delivery systems. Methods are needed which can aid in extending thought processes into multi-dimensional solution space and rationalizing the thinking of various health care interests. This paper describes a useful approach to designing and evaluating health care systems utilizing a case study of a large metropolitan community.     

Verbraucherabteilungen in Unternehmen — eine Chance für Unternehmen und/oder Verbraucher? Zu Fornells Beitrag in ZVP, 2, 1978/4

Ohne Zusammenfassung     

Asymptotic normality of narrow-band least squares in the stationary fractional cointegration model and volatility forecasting

We consider semiparametric frequency domain analysis of cointegration between long memory processes, i.e. fractional cointegration, allowing derivation of useful long-run relations even among stationary processes. The approach is due to Robinson (1994b. Annals of Statistics 22, 515–539) and uses a degenerating part of the periodogram near the origin to form a narrow-band frequency domain least squares (FDLS) estimator of the cointegrating relation, which is consistent for arbitrary short-run dynamics. We derive the asymptotic distribution theory for the FDLS estimator of the cointegration vector in the stationary long memory case, thus complementing Robinson's consistency result. An application to the relation between the volatility realized in the stock market and the associated implicit volatility derived from option prices is offered.     

Stability and self-decomposability of semi-group valued random variables

A random variable X on IR₊ is said to be self-decomposable, dif for all c∈ (0, 1) there exists a random variable X_c on IR₊ such that X=^dcX+X_c . It is said to be stable if it is self-decomposable and X_c=^d (1 - c)X' , where X and X' are identically and independently distributed. The notions of stability and self-decomposability for infinitely divisible random variables are generalised to abelian semi-groups ( S, + ) with S having an identical involution, by using characteristic functions. The generalised definitions involve semi-groups of scaling operators T . There operators can be interpreted in a slightly different context as generalised continuous-time branching processes (with immigration). The underlying importance of the generator of the semi-groups T in the characterisation of stability and self-decomposability is stressed.     

Intraregional productivity differences in São Paulo state manufacturing plants

Zusammenfassung Intraregionale Produktivit?tsdifferenzen zwischen Fabriken im Staate S?o Paulo. - Dieser Aufsatz untersucht intraregionale Produktivit?tsdifferenzen zwischen neuen Fabriken im Staate S?o Paulo in Brasilien. In einer Region wie S?o Paulo, in der die Produktion r?umlich sehr konzentriert ist, erscheint es einleuchtend, die Einflüsse der Agglomeration anhand der Fahrzeit zum Stadtzentrum zu messen. Anscheinend ist dieser Aspekt der Erreichbarkeit tats?chlich mit einer h?heren Produktivit?t verknüpft. Die Produktivit?t ist ebenfalls h?her in Fabriken, die in irgendeiner Form eng mit ausl?ndischen Firmen verbunden sind, was darauf hindeutet, da\ nützliche Informationen innerhalb des Firmenbereichs ausgetauscht werden. Schlie\lich vermittelt die Analyse, da sie sich auf neue Fabriken konzentriert, ganz aktuelle Einzelheiten über die Produktivit?tsvorteile st?dtischer Produktion.

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Resumen Diferencias intraregionales de productividad entre los establecimientos industriales del Estado de S?o Paulo. - Este trabajo analiza diferencias intraregionales de productividad entre los establecimientos industriales nuevos del Estado de S~ao Paulo en el Brasil. En una región como S?o Paulo en la cual la producción está altamente concentrada es plausible medir la influencia de la aglomeración usando el tiempo de viaje necesario para llegar al centro de la cuidad. La evidencia indica que este aspecto de la accesibilidad está, en efecto, asociada con una productividad más alta. La productividad también resulta superior en establecimientos con calidad de subsidiarias o sucursales de o afiliados a empresas extranjeras, hecho que sugiere que se transmite información útil dentro de la empresa. Finalmente, limitándose a establecimientos nuevos, el análisis proporciona informaciones muy actuales sobre las ventajas de producir en zonas urbanas.

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Résumé Différences intrarégionales de productivité dans des usines manufacturières d’état de S?o Paulo. - Dans cet article les auteurs analysent des différences intrarégionales de productivité entre nouvelles usines manufacturières dans l’état de S?o Paulo en Brésil. Dans une région comme S?o Paulo dans laquelle la production est spatialement très concentrée il est plausible de mesurer les influences de l’agglomération par le temps d’aller au coeur du centre urbain. L’évidence indique que cet élément d’accessibilité est en fait associé avec une productivité plus haute. La productivité est aussi plus haute dans les usines qui sont bien liées aux entreprises étrangères, un fait qui suggère que des informations utiles sont transmises dans l’enceinte de l’entreprise. Finalement, cette analyse qui est concentrée sur des usines nouvelles donne des informations extrèmement actuelles sur les avantages de productivité de la production urbaine.