2001 Lawrence R. Klein Lecture Estimating Distributions of Treatment Effects with an Application to the Returns to Schooling and Measurement of the Effects of Uncertainty on College Choice*

This article uses factor models to identify and estimate the distributions of counterfactuals. We extend LISREL frameworks to a dynamic treatment effect setting, extending matching to account for unobserved conditioning variables. Using these models, we can identify all pairwise and joint treatment effects. We apply these methods to a model of schooling and determine the intrinsic uncertainty facing agents at the time they make their decisions about enrollment in school. We go beyond the “Veil of Ignorance” in evaluating educational policies and determine who benefits and who loses from commonly proposed educational reforms.     

The demise of the rights issue

This article suggests that the lack of use of rights offeringsin the United States, a phenomenon referred to as the equityunderwriting paradox, can be explained by transaction-cost conditions.A sample of underwritten rights offerings provides support forthe explanation. Firms making underwritten rights offeringspaid lower underwriter fees but incurred significantly largerprice drops just prior to the offering than did firms makingunderwritten public offerings. Further analysis reveals thatthe underwritten-rights-offering price concessions are a formof transaction cost that is not found in under-written publicofferings.     

Operationalising workers' participation: a comparison of US and Yugoslav models

Richard Rosenberg and Eliezer Rosenstein compare Yugoslavian workers' councils with consultative participation in US plants. They conclude that shopfloor participation offers the most potential for active worker involvement in management and even for the effective downward transfer of decision-making authority.     

Price adjustment in open economies

The adjustment of product prices in open economies is analyzed by use of a model encompassing different product market structures and quarterly data for Denmark, Germany, the Netherlands, Norway, and Sweden. In general, support is found in favor of a specialized production model implying that prices are affected by internal and external factors. Price adjustment displays substantial inertia and is in the short run driven by real shocks to both supply and demand, as well as being characterized by nominal rigidities, whereas in the long run relative prices are driven solely by supply variables.     

Partial anticipation, the flow of information and the economic impact of corporate debt sales

Corporate debt sales have been regarded as 'no news' eventsbecause there is no significant price reaction on average totheir announcement. We explore the hypothesis that this lackof average price reaction to debt sale announcements is explainedby the partial anticipation of debt offers. Theory suggeststhat the demand for debt capital is fundamentally related tochanges in the sources and uses of funds, and we find evidencethat earnings are significantly lower, investment growth issignificantly bigger, and, for some issuers, debt refundingrequirements are significantly greater in the period immediatelyprior to issue than in periods well before and after the issue.We find that this preissue information conditions investors'expectations of issue, thereby affecting the cross-sectionalannouncement date price reaction to debt sales in two ways.First, announcement date price reactions are negative, on average,for unanticipated offers or for those offers where prior informationsuggests that an issue is unlikely. Second, holding the probabilityof issue constant, announcement date price reactions are significantlymore negative for offers that raise more capital than investorsexpected. These results are consistent with cash flow signalingand asymmetric information models of corporate financings.     

Locating small scale public facilities

It is argued that the operational characteristics of small scale public facilities make them significantly different from large scale public facilities. This means that in some cases the complex planning methodologies usually employed in public facility analysis are not well suited to the analysis of small scale public facilities. A methodology is proposed using a simplified location-allocation model to generate data for a decision rule. Refinements to the methodology are suggested and a general argument is made that more emphasis be placed on the development of simplified methodologies for locating small scale public facilities.     

Micro-economic applications of marginal changes in risk

Extending a recent definition, we propose a theorem on the impact of marginal changes in risk on the optimal decision of a risk averse individual. Several micro-economic applications are then provided.