Combining the Effects of OLS and Spread on Futures Hedging: Evidence from the Taiwan Stock Index

Abstract:

This study proposes a dynamic hedge ratio, the combined ordinary least squares spread (COLSS), which combines the hedge ratio of ordinary least squares and the value of spread. Using this dynamic ratio for hedging with futures contracts, one can replace spot risk with spread risk. The COLSS captures not only the long-run equilibrium between spot and futures returns, but also the short-run deviation from equilibrium. The spread is forecast by one-period lagged stock market factors and high-order moments that are estimated by an options model. In the in-sample and out-of-sample tests, the COLSS strategy achieves significant risk reduction and outperforms the alternative models by a large utility improvement.     

基于区块链技术的旅游地低碳发展模式构建

旅游地是推进旅游业低碳化发展的重要实践主体,但长期面临旅游企业、旅游者低碳生产与消费内在动力不足,低碳发展长效落实机制缺乏,监督管理成本过高等问题。提升旅游地低碳发展系统协同效率,推动低碳发展措施高效实施是实现旅游业高质量发展的迫切议题。本研究以区块链技术为支撑,以低碳信息共享为基础,基于供需协同、低碳优先、共同参与、可持续性、系统性5项原则,尝试构建以旅游企业、旅游者、第三方评估机构、政府部门、社区居民五大利益相关者为主体,以低碳信息共享、低碳发展激励、低碳发展规制、低碳发展补偿4项区块链平台运行机制为支持的旅游地低碳发展模式,通过正向激励机制、反向规制机制、补偿机制推动低碳"信息互联网"向"价值互联网"转变,为旅游地低碳发展提供技术支撑。同时,本研究意图突破传统低碳旅游研究局限,拓展可持续旅游分析视角。     

如何做好易地扶贫搬迁后续就业帮扶

易地扶贫搬迁计划实施后,我国秦巴山区贫困人口稳就业、能致富仍然需要后续帮扶。研究选取了秦巴山区 4 县 1 区的 3015 户易地扶贫搬迁户作为调查对象,通过因子分析对各指标进行归类,再综合运用组合赋权对其进行最后的权重排序,得出影响搬迁户后续就业的主要因素分别是：就业能力、就业方式、就业观念、就业质量和就业信息因素。最后,从提升综合素质、丰富就业方式、优化就业环境三个方面做好易地扶贫搬迁后续就业。     

基于STIRPAT模型研究南京碳排放的影响因素

在巴黎气候变化大会上,中国政府提出了“2030年左右实现碳达峰,并争取尽快实现”的新阶段目标。城市是能源资源消耗和CO2排放的集聚区域,城市化产生的碳排放是当今中国影响气候变化的重要因素。文章采用南京1997~2017年21年数据,从人口规模、财富水平、城市化水平、技术水平、产业结构、国际贸易水平、科技创新能力七个方面选取更符合南京国情的社会经济变量建立STIRPAT模型,研究影响南京市碳排放的主要因素。结果表明:人口总量和城市化率是影响南京碳排放的主要因素。     

成渝地区双城经济圈金融市场融合发展研究

金融市场融合发展是成渝地区双城经济圈协同发展的必然结果和重要引擎。当前,成渝地区双城经济圈在金融市场融合发展中面临提升金融中心能级、优化金融空间布局、加强金融机构跨区域协作的挑战,影响金融资源的跨区域流动和配置效率。本文根据对成渝地区双城经济圈金融市场融合情况的统计测量结果,借鉴国内主要城市群金融市场差异化融合路径,分别从共建金融市场、突出区域特色、破除行政壁垒、完善金融基础设施等四个方面提出成渝地区双城经济圈金融市场融合发展的现实路径。     

Analysts' Forecasts Following Forced CEO Changes

This paper examines analysts' earnings forecasts during the period of uncertainty following a change of chief executive officer (CEO). It distinguishes between forced and non‐forced CEO changes, and examines whether analysts utilize their information advantage to reduce the heightened uncertainty of a forced change of CEO. Examining a sample of Australian companies followed by analysts between 1999 and 2009, we find that forecasting accuracy is lower and earnings forecasts are more optimistic for firms experiencing forced CEO turnover compared to firms not undergoing such a change. However, dispersion is not statistically different. The results suggest that forced CEO turnover events provide a challenge to the forecasting environment for analysts. During CEO changes, investors should be aware that forecasts are less accurate and have an optimistic bias.     

Underpricing of homecoming A-share IPOs by Chinese firms already listed abroad

Many Chinese firms have pursued overseas listings in Hong Kong or US without being first listed in China’s domestic market, mainly due to the regulatory constraints imposed by the Chinese government. Some of them eventually returned to mainland China through an A-share offering to Chinese investors. This unique feature of cross-listed Chinese stocks offers an experiment field to test some of the conventional theories of initial public offerings (IPOs) underpricing. Homebound IPOs are expected to be less underpriced than domestic only IPOs that are not cross-listed because being already listed in a developed market can mitigate the information asymmetry and issue uncertainty associated with their A-share IPOs. Nevertheless, we find that homecoming A-share IPOs are still substantially underpriced, with an average market adjusted first-day return of 96.53 %. Furthermore, their first-day returns are not significantly different from those of domestic only IPOs once firm- and offer-characteristics are controlled. This is in sharp contrast to the lukewarm aftermarket performance experienced in their overseas debuts. The mean market adjusted first-day return is merely 5.35 % in their US ADR offerings and 11.63 % in their Hong Kong H-share IPOs. Overall, our results suggest the importance of local market structures and norms as influential factors of IPO underpricing.     

财政分权、贸易不平衡与区域间资本流动

本文基于经典的宏观经济理论及储蓄与投资相关关系检验法,采用空间面板模型,对中国的财政分权与贸易不平衡对区域间资本流动性的影响及分地区的资本流动性进行了研究.研究发现,在全国层面,财政分权的提高或贸易不平衡度的降低会促进区域间资本流动,在地区层面,环渤海、东南、西北、中部、西南和东北地区内的资本流动性依次减弱.总体上,为提高区域间资本流动性,政府应进一步财政分权,同时着力降低区域的贸易不平衡度.     

广西产业结构转型升级的金融支持传导机制研究

金融业在促进产业结构调整升级和新兴产业发展方面具有独特功能,从金融发展角度研究如何构建良好的金融体系实现产业结构转型升级具有理论上和实践上的创新性,本文立足广西产业结构调整进程及其金融支持基本情况,运用实证分析研究其内在关系,并结合亚洲地区新兴经济体的经验提出建设性意见。