THE IMPACT OF INFLATION ON PROPERTY CRIME

Using U.S. data from 1950 to 2010, we analyze to what extent inflation raises the incidence of property crime. To match our theoretical predictions, we consider different types of property crime (larceny, burglary, motor vehicle theft, and robbery) and broad and narrow definitions of inflation separately. We control for the state of the business cycle and demographic changes over time explicitly. Unobserved or difficult‐to‐measure determinants of property crime are captured through a stochastic‐trend specification within a state‐space framework. We find a robust statistical link between inflation and each of the four property crime rates. Our findings are robust to alternative definitions of inflation and the inclusion or exclusion of different control variables. In terms of policy, our findings suggest that monetary policy that creates inflation has costly spillover effects. (JEL J10, J11)     

EU-Osterweiterung: eine Bilanz nach zehn Jahren

Ten years after the biggest enlargement in the history of the EU, the integration of the new member states is assessed positively. It is considered an economic success when looking at the income levels. However, due to overly optimistic assumptions and the crisis, economic integration and the catching-up process will take much longer for the new EU member states than originally expected. Moreover, new challenges are looming, especially as the Central and Eastern European accession countries adopt the euro. Smaller countries introduced the euro as quickly as possible, whereas larger countries have been much more hesitant, thinking twice not only because of several unsolved problems in the euro area but also because they use the exchange rate tool much more intensively. All new member states have to make sure they continue to increase their productivity and competitiveness. Findings suggest that after having entered the EU, the new eastern member states appear to have been developing rather stringent competition cultures. Bulgaria and Romania’s transition performance significantly differs from the pattern in the 2004 accession countries, both in terms of quantitative growth and institutional quality. These countries show that EU funds can be highly counter-productive since they help to conserve old structures.     

On the Comparison of Run Orders of Unreplicated 2<Superscript><Emphasis Type="Italic">k</Emphasis>–<Emphasis Type="Italic">p</Emphasis></Superscript> Designs in the Presence of a Time Trend

The response from a factorial experiment carried out in a time sequence may be affected by uncontrollable variables that are highly correlated with the time in which they occur. In such a situation, one possibility is to randomize the run order of the experiment. Another possibility is to use a systematic run order that is robust against time trends. Since randomized run orders make the time trend part of the error, it can be hoped that systematic run orders will be more effective to identify truly active factors. In this paper, a simulation study is used to compare the performances of the randomized and the systematic run orders. The response from an experiment where we have observed a strong time trend is used to demonstrate the influence of a realistic time trend on the run orders under consideration. The performance of the run orders is then measured by taking the probabilities of false rejection and the probabilities of detection of active contrasts. Our results show that the randomized run order managed to keep the nominal level, while the systematic did not. Additionally, when there were active factors, then the systematic run orders did not achieve more power than did the randomized run order.     

连锁董事理论:来自中国企业的实证检验

本文对散见于国内外的连锁董事文献进行了梳理，将之归纳为四种理论体系，即互惠理论、资源依赖理论、金融控制理论和管理控制理论。并依据每一种理论提出了相关假定。指出了数据来源，并选取了被解释变量、解释变量和其他变量。对相关理论进行检验，其结果证实了资源依赖理论，部分证实了金融控制理论和管理控制理论。这些结论表明现有的连锁董事理论对我国上市公司连锁董事的解释能力还待于深入研究。     

Avoiding Backlash or Proving One’s Manhood? Beliefs About Gender Differences in Negotiation

Group Decision and Negotiation - Gender differences in negotiation are typically explained by processes that concern women (e.g., women anticipate backlash for assertive behavior). Research has...