Bargaining and the observability of contractual commitments via third parties

This paper analyzes a two-stage model of bilateral bargaining where one of the agents has the option to delegate. A first approach is to assume that the contract between the agent and his representative is perfectly observable and can be renegotiated. Commitment effects arise although renegotiation is possible. Then, perfect observability of the contract is weakened to observe it with certain probability. Commitment effects as pure-strategy equilibria exist if this probability is sufficiently close to 1, in contrast to Bagwell's [1995] findings that imperfect observability undermines commitment. Considering the realistic case of the actual agreement between two parties being private information, the commitment value as equilibrium outcome disappears since having closed a renegotiation-proof contract offers costless self-insurance against strategic misunderstandings. The author is grateful for helpful comments from Vasco Santos, participants at the International Atlantic Economic Conference, October 7–10, 1999, Montreal, Canada, an anonymous referee, and David M. Aadland.     

The contextual nature of the predictive power of statistically-based quarterly earnings models

We present new empirical evidence on the contextual nature of the predictive power of five statistically-based quarterly earnings expectation models evaluated on a holdout period spanning the twelve quarters from 2000–2002. In marked contrast to extant time-series work, the random walk with drift (RWD) model provides significantly more accurate pooled, one-step-ahead quarterly earnings predictions for a sample of high-technology firms (n = 202). In similar predictive comparisons, the Griffin-Watts (GW) ARIMA model provides significantly more accurate quarterly earnings predictions for a sample of regulated firms (n = 218). Finally, the RWD and GW ARIMA models jointly dominate the other expectation models (i.e., seasonal random walk with drift, the Brown-Rozeff (BR) and Foster (F) ARIMA models) for a default sample of firms (n = 796). We provide supplementary analyses that document the: (1) increased frequency of the number of loss quarters experienced by our sample firms in the holdout period (2000–2002) vis-à-vis the identification period (1990–1999); (2) reduced levels of earnings persistence for our sample firms relative to earnings persistence factors computed by Baginski et al. (2003) during earlier time periods (1970s–1980s); (3) relative impact on the predictive ability of the five expectation models conditioned upon the extent of analyst coverage of sample firms (i.e., no coverage, moderate coverage, and extensive coverage); and (4) sensitivity of predictive performance across subsets of regulated firms with the BR ARIMA model providing the most accurate predictions for utilities (n = 87) while the RWD model is superior for financial institutions (n = 131).

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A REVISED GEOMETRY OF MEAN-VARIANCE EFFICIENT PORTFOLIOS

A revised definition of efficiency compares portfolios with different net worths. One axiom rules out instantaneous riskless gains, the other asserts that it costs money to buy good portfolios. Unlimited short sales are allowed. Portfolios which cannot be improved at any price are called absolutely efficient. The geometry of the mean-standard deviation frontiers is governed by three “efficient set constants”. A few results regarding efficient portfolios must be modified, and a new version of the security line equation is proposed. Explicit formulas are given: no need to use different formulas for singular or non-singular covariance matrix.     

Structured packings for use in oxygen service: Flammability considerations

Metallic structured packings have found increasing use in the cryogenic distillation of air. An experimental program was performed to test the flammability of selected metal packings under simulated high oxygen concentration operating conditions. Aluminum flammability in gaseous oxygen has been shown to be very dependent upon argon dilution, and in the presence of liquid oxygen, strong energy releases have been observed. Brass packing exhibited an unexpectedly high relative flammability whereas copper has been found to be non-flammable in all tested oxygen purities. These findings suggest the use of copper structured packing in higher purity GOX/LOX regions of an air separation distillation column and aluminum structured packing in the remainder of the column.     

BOOK REVIEWS

Dynamics and Conflict in Regional Structura1 Change—Essay in Honor of Walter Isard Volume 2 Practical Methods of Regional Science and Empirical Applications—Selected Papers of Walter Isard, Volume 2 Department of Economics Loughborough University Export Promotion Strategies—Theory and Evidence from Developing Countries Commonwealth Secretariat Export Market Development Division Human Development Report 1990 for the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) (New York and Oxford: University of Nottingham The World Bank and the Environment—First Annual Report Fiscal 1990, The World Bank (New York: The World Bank, 1990 London Environmental Economics Centre University College London The European Communities' Single Market: The Challenge of 1992 for Sub-Saharan Africa Loughborough University