Application of Social Vulnerability Index (SoVI) and delineation of natural risk zones in Greater Lisbon,Portugal

Social Vulnerability Index (SoVI) was applied to Greater Lisbon (Portugal). Based on the concepts used for the SoVI assessments in the US, 46 variables representing social vulnerability of the 149 civil parishes of Greater Lisbon were chosen. Thirty-eight variables were selected after application of correlation tests. They were standardized, and a Principal Component Analysis and a Varimax rotation were applied to them. Seven factors were extracted using the Kaiser criterion, which explain 79.5% of the variance, and the SoVI scores were then mapped using a standard deviation classification. Twelve of the 149 civil parishes of Greater Lisbon have a very high social vulnerability and 24 of them have a high social vulnerability. The map of SoVI was then integrated with susceptibility maps of earthquakes, floods, flash floods, landslides, tsunami, and coastal erosion, thus delineating risk zones. Twenty-two civil parishes of Greater Lisbon have a very high risk; among them, 17 belong to Lisbon Municipality, four belong to Loures Municipality, and one belongs to Vila Franca de Xira Municipality. Finally, exposed population was considered and combined with risk zones map in order to assess the number of people being potentially exposed to risk and their location.     

Social vulnerability indexes as planning tools: beyond the preparedness paradigm

This article draws from the experience of the ongoing drafting of the Regional Plan of the Centre Region of Portugal, and the empirical application of the Social Vulnerability Index proposed by Susan Cutter. It consists in the construction of an index of social vulnerability to natural and technological hazards and to social risks for all the municipalities of the region. Methodologically, it extends the vulnerability analysis to technological hazards and social risks, as a more encompassing view is necessary for the elaboration of prevention and civil protection policies. The results confirm the interactive nature of social vulnerability, and they also reflect the diffuse urbanisation and industrialisation patterns that characterise Portugal. The scattered nature of social facilities and security and health infrastructures pose specific challenges to planners concerning risk prevention and mitigation, and the elaboration of effective risk communication strategies adapted to specific hazards and risks in the studied municipalities. The article concludes with some reflections on the need to revise established paradigms of disaster analysis and emphasise the importance of pre‐event planning and the social cartography of vulnerable populations for effective prevention and security policies that take into account social inequalities and citizenship rights.     

Two-Sided Bounds for Ruin Probabilities when the Adjustment Coefficient does not Exist

In this paper, we derive two-sided bounds for the ruin probability in the compound Poisson risk model when the adjustment coefficient of the individual claim size distribution does not exist. These bounds also apply directly to the tails of compound geometric distributions. The upper bound is tighter than that of Dickson (1994). The corresponding lower bound, which holds under the same conditions, is tighter than that of De Vylder and Goovaerts (1984). Even when the adjustment coefficient exists, the upper bound is, in some cases, tighter than Lundberg's bound. These bounds are applicable for any positive distribution function with a finite mean. Examples are given and numerical comparisons with asymptotic formulae for the ruin probability are also considered.     

Implementing the International Public Sector Accounting Standards for consolidated financial statements: facilitators,benefits and challenges

ABSTRACT

Portugal and Spain have reformed their national standards to adapt them to the International Public Sector Accounting Standards (IPSAS). This paper explains the process of implementing the IPSAS for consolidated reporting in the two countries and the advantages and disadvantages which have emerged. The results highlight the role of the IPSAS in improving the quality and use of consolidated financial statements (CFS) and will be of interest to other countries that are intending to implement the IPSAS.     

Gender Differences in Recruitment Outcomes

The paper tests the hypothesis that female applicants have a lower probability of being hired from a pool of applicants than their male counterparts. The results indicate that male and female candidates have about the same probability of being hired independently of the type of vacancy. The probability of hiring a candidate of a certain sex is therefore determined by the gender composition of the pool of applicants who have selected themselves on the basis of job characteristics, hiring standards and the type of sector. This indicates that male and female job-seekers select themselves in such a way that they have equal probabilities of being accepted.     

Kriging methodology for regional economic analysis: Estimating the housing price in Albacete

Because of the socioeconomic importance of the housing subsector in the local, regional, and national economy and its implications for housing policy, this paper attempts to analyze the spatial behavior of the free housing price in the city of Albacete. To achieve this aim, the authors have used the models and estimators imported from geology called kriging. To do this, it is necessary to know the spatial dependence structure of the process, which is shown in the variogram.     

The Influence of Informality in a Local Agri-food Supply Chain in Brazil

During qualitative research on trust, conducted in a mariculture chain in southern Brazil, the theme of informality emerged spontaneously in most interviews. Although it is difficult to measure, some data and estimates point out that informality is still quite present worldwide, but especially in emerging and developing countries, and this situation was confirmed in the studied supply chain. In analysing the narratives, we noticed that this is a chronic issue which bothers the producers that are properly formalised mainly because of unfair competition, and hinders the organisation of the chain. Some factors foster the persistence of informality, such as family labour and temporary jobs, the low educational level of entrepreneurs, lack of adequate supervision and cultural aspects of producers and their families. We could corroborate the perspectives of modernisation (informality is still persistent), neo-liberal (informal entrepreneurs reject the bureaucracy of an over-regulated market) and post-structuralist (informality is a way of life related to identity, social position and/or resistance against the formal structure) theories. Our research has shown us that the situation found is contributing to a reduction in the number of formal producers and impairing the development of that local supply chain, as well as its sustainability.     

Distilling network effects from Steam

Quantitative Marketing and Economics - This paper develops a method to estimate the demand for network goods, using minimal network data, but leveraging within-consumer variation. I estimate demand...     

Why do firms use fixed-term contracts?

Portuguese Economic Journal - In this article we look at how one specific form of temporary employment - employment with fixed-term contracts - fits into employers’ hiring policies. We find...