The forward discount puzzle and market efficiency

We argue that the forward discount puzzle is primarily a statistical phenomenon and that statistical rejections of Uncovered Interest Parity do not necessarily constitute valid rejections of market efficiency. We find by using a Taylor expansion a theoretical negative bias in existing regressions of UIP. We propose two alternative tests for market efficiency, one of which is designed to measure the degree of market inefficiency. Our results from these tests indicate that for all four of the bilateral dollar parities studied the foreign exchange market is efficient despite decisive clear rejections of UIP using the conventional regression approach.     

Spillover across Eurozone credit market sectors and determinants

We examine spillover and its determinants among Eurozone sector level credit markets using time and frequency domain spillover approaches. Based on network theory and connectedness analysis, we identify the sectors that are major transmitters and receivers of spillover during normal and crisis periods. The rolling window analysis shows that short-run spillover among credit market sectors intensifies during global and Eurozone crisis periods. Further, using Bayesian model averaging, we find that overall financial conditions and stock market volatility are the main drivers of total and sector-level spillover. Our findings have important implications for policymakers and investors interested in Euro-area credit risk at the sector level.     

Total work time in Spain: evidence from time diary data

Using detailed time-use data from 2002–03 and 2009–10 for Spain, we analyse changes in the time-allocation decisions of the Spanish population, with a focus on the time devoted to total work. Consistent with prior literature, we document that the concept of ‘iso-work’ (e.g. the time devoted to total work by gender is equal) does not hold in societies with stringent gender roles, such as Spain. Women devote more time to total work than men, and this difference has increased throughout the period studied by 2 hours per week. The relative increase in total work for women compared to men can be explained by a relative increase in market work of 8 hours per week, coupled with a relative decrease in nonmarket work of 6 hours per week, which have led Spanish women to devote, relatively, 2 fewer hours to leisure per week in 2009–10, compared to 2002–03. We propose social norms as a potential explanation of these empirical findings. By uncovering how individuals allocate their time inside and outside the market over a period of time, our results may improve our understanding of the dynamics of economic change and welfare.     

An Empirical Study of Behavioral Intentions in the Food Festival: The Case of Macau

The behavioral intentions of visitors play an important role in predicting future profits in the food festival. The purpose of this study is to identify the dimensions of festival quality and examine the interrelationships between behavioral intentions and the other constructs related to behavioral intentions as perceived by visitors to the food festival using structural equation modeling (SEM). The dimensions of festival quality are built and a multi-dimensional and hierarchical model is used as a framework to synthesize the effects of festival quality and visitor satisfaction on behavioral intentions of visitors to the Macau Food Festival (MFF). The findings of this study are based on SEM analysis of a convenience sample of 428 respondents. The findings reveal that there are four primary dimensions and 11 sub-dimensions of festival quality in the MFF.     

Trade,scale or social capital? Technological progress in poor and rich countries

Endogenous growth theory suggests scale and trade as the determinants of total factor productivity (TFP) growth. The literature on social capital suggests that the levels of trust and participation in societies may affect cooperation and innovation. While there is evidence of the role of trade and inconclusive evidence on the role of social capital, previous studies have generally omitted two factors, out of the three mentioned, used small sample sizes and emphasized economic growth rather than technological progress. Our study addresses these shortcomings. We find robust evidence of the role of trade in fostering technological progress which is invariant to TFP proxies and independent of the debate on measuring TFP. Moreover, there is no clear role for scale, and a country rate of TFP growth seems to increase the most the more the country trades with dynamic economies that are different from. We uncover a positive effect of social capital, which is more significant in richer countries, suggesting that other characteristics, such as institutional quality, may be complementary to social capital. The paper's results are robust to different specification and estimation methods.     

Is there a business cycle in Singapore? Is there a Singaporean business cycle?

This paper explores the existence and examines the characteristics, if any, of business cycles in Singapore. Specifically, the authors ask: Is there a business cycle in Singapore? Is there a Singaporean business cycle? Unlike earlier studies, this paper investigates whether or not there exists a business cycle in Singapore and employs cross-spectral analysis and factor analysis which have advantages over the time-domain techniques. The study shows that there is a business cycle in Singapore and its frequency does not coincide with the periodicity of the two recessions experienced by the country. However, the business cycle is not in any meaningful way Singaporean, as evidenced by the existence of three international factors explaining about 99 percent of the common variance of the series. The idiosyncratic factor is well below 1 percent in all Association of Southeast Asian Nations countries with the exception of the Philippines. The findings have a number of significant implications both from the theoretical and policymaking viewpoint.     

Corporate returns and cash conversion cycles

This study examines the relationship between profitability measures and management of ongoing liquidity needs for a large cross-section of firms over a twenty-year period. Long-run equilibrium relationships between the cash conversion cycle, a measure of ongoing liquidity management, and alternative measures of profitability are tested using both nonparametric and multiple regression analysis. Industry and size differences are controlled. While there are exceptions to the general finding for specific firms and for specific industries, the paper offers strong evidence that aggressive working-capital policies enhance profitability.     

International harmonization of reporting required by stock markets

The 1980s witnessed a significant expansion of financial markets and, more specifically, of stock markets, at a world level. The differences which exist in the economic-accounting environment in which companies operate (legal structure, market development, national policy objectives, cultural factors) result in different procedures when shares are offered to the market, different reporting requirements required by the stock markets, etc. These differences reduce the efficiency of stock markets within an international environment. The importance of this fact has motivated the preparation of this paper, the aim of which is to analyze and quantify, where appropriate, the divergences which exist between the reporting requirements demanded by the stock markets of different countries and the home companies which wish to be quoted on them.     

A four-step approach to 1992

Here's a four-step process to help you analyze both the opportunities and potential hazards of 1992. Even if you've already made your plans, it's a way to make sure you've considered all the implications of a Single Europe.