Securitization,Risk‐Taking and the Option to Change Strategy

This article models the riskiness of structured securitization deals. The deals are put together by “banks,” which can exercise strategic options over the risk put into the deals. The banks face a trade‐off between the benefits of risk‐taking now and future franchise benefits if the deal pays off. The key insight is a convex relationship between the value of the bank's equity position and the risk in the deal. Although there is a continuum of possible risk, banks choose either the highest or lowest levels of risk open to them. Changes in strategy are discontinuous and unpredictable; a history of low risk‐taking may be a prelude to increased risk‐taking later. Competition, to the extent of reducing franchise value, can lead to more risk‐taking, as can more information in the market. The model provides insights into the risk‐taking that led up to the Great Recession and to institutions that are “Too Big to Fail.”     

U.S. House Prices over the Last 30 Years: Bubbles,Regime Shifts and Market (In)Efficiency

This paper studies U.S. house prices across 45 metropolitan areas from 1980 to 2012. It applies a version of the Gordon dividend discount model for long‐run “fundamentals” and uses Mean Group and Pooled Mean Group estimation to estimate long‐run and short‐run determinants of house prices. We find great similarity across cities in that the long‐run house prices are largely explained by the same fundamentals; the long‐run rent to price ratio is approximately 5% plus 0.75 times the real interest rate (which is on the order of 2%). However, adjustments to deviations from the fundamentals are slow, in the long‐run, closing the gap at a rate of around 10% per year. We find sharp differences in short‐run adjustments (momentum) away from the fundamentals across cities, and the differences are correlated with local supply elasticities (more momentum with lower elasticity). Analysis of residuals suggests strong cyclical deviations, which are mean‐reverting.     

An Interpretation of the Collapsing Process of the Bretton Woods System

This paper attempts to determine the environments that market confidence might play a significant role in the collapse of the Bretton Woods system. We build a game-theoretic model of currency crises where a continuum of small speculators can decide their market confidence and trading positions. In the model, the convertibility of dollar is assumed to exhibit a long-term downtrend due to Triffin’s dilemma. The problem is analyzed on the grounds of both certainty and uncertainty. In the certainty case, we find that if the convertibility of dollar is low enough, a dollar crisis is inevitable, but if the convertibility is in an intermediate range with multiple equilibria, the Bretton Woods system is vulnerable to self-fulfilling speculation. In the uncertainty case, the incidence of the confidence crises will disproportionately increase as the convertibility of dollar falls. Lastly, this paper shows that the Federal Reserve Bank’s secrecy may extend the maximum lifespan of the Bretton Woods system.     

地方政府利益、地方政府行为与经济增长

目前,对中国地方政府的经济行为的研究强调了在经济转型过程中地方政府在多样化的地方经济发展模式中的主导作用,注意到了地方政府目标的多重性,本地区社会福利最大化,政府利益最大化以及中央政府的满意程度等。对地方政府在公共产品的提供、就业、收入分配、实现社会公平等方面行为不到位方面的研究是从定性方法来论证。本文试图在定性分析基础上建立一些基本的数学模型为将来的计量研究提供一个模型框架。     

关于“云消费”基本特征的研究

当前我们已经进入一个全新的以消费者为核心的商业时代——“云消费”时代.“云消费”在技术层面上表现为三大基本特征,即体现云消费发展内涵和容量的“云内容”,代表云消费终端平台的“云终端”,反映云消费的交易形式和支付方式的“云支付”.本文对此进行了较全面的研究.     

Nesting Horizontal and Vertical Differentiation with Location Choices

This study solves a location‐then‐price game in which horizontal and vertical differentiation are combined using an asymmetric distribution of consumers’ taste. Boundary locations are robust when the taste disparity of the population is not large and out‐of‐market locations are not allowed. Firms may have incentives to move either inside or outside the market in other situations, so the equilibrium prices are never differentiated. The restrictions of vertical differentiation under this framework are further examined. A model with the entrance of a vertically differentiated product is also discussed.     

江苏沿海地区城市化现状及存在问题浅析

2009年江苏沿海开发上升为国家战略。为了解该地区的发展态势,本文立足城市化视角,具体分析了该地区城市化现状及存在问题。通过客观考察,本研究发现该地区面临一些困境,包括城市化率偏低、城市经济薄弱、社会事业滞后、城市间分工合作不够协调等。不过,总体上江苏沿海面临的机遇依然多于挑战。     

交易成本与新型农村合作医疗制度可持续发展

新型农村合作医疗制度的试点极大地推进了我国农村医疗保障制度的构建过程,但是该项制度推进并不顺利。本文试从交易成本理论视角,分析当前新农合制度存在较高的交易成本导致制度创新不足。在此基础上,本文提出要使新农合制度可持续发展,政府必须从制度完善和机制创新两个方面降低交易成本,以提高新农合制度绩效。     

A Generic Framework for Automated Multi-attribute Negotiation

Agents in a negotiation may have to negotiate multiple issues simultaneously. Automated multi-attribute negotiation provides an important mechanism for distributed decision makers to reach agreements on multiple issues. Moreover, it also furnishes the opportunity to reach “win–win” solutions. In this paper, we first provide a survey that synthesizes the research on multi-attribute negotiation. We discuss the limitations of the existing research and conclude that three key issues need further study: incomplete information, Pareto optimality, and tractability. We then present a generic framework for automated multi-attribute negotiation with two new mechanisms that address the above issues. Finally, we discuss the challenges and directions for future work.     

Service quality gaps of business customers in the shipping industry

This paper extends the gaps model of [Zeithaml, V.A., Parasuraman, A., Berry, L. 1990. Delivering Quality Service: Balancing Customer Perceptions and Expectation. The Free Press, New York] from the service provider to the business customer side by examining two service quality (SQ) gaps. One is the SQ gap between types of business customers and the other is the SQ gap among employee statuses of business customers. Besides that, the five-factor SERVQUAL measure as the initial hypothesized model is also tested. The applicability of SERVQUAL to measuring the perceived SQ of customers in the shipping industry of Taiwan is rejected empirically. The existence of the two hypothesized gaps is verified by the method of MANOVA.