Long-Run Performance Persistence of Investment Funds

This article analyzes the long-run persistence of returns and risk of investment in the assets of money, bound, and stock funds recorded on the Polish market in 2000–12. Portfolios of safe, hybrid, and stock classes are formed on the basis of tested funds. The persistence of returns and the Sharpe ratio are investigated in rolled five-year sub-periods, with one year step. Also, persistence in performance is assessed using classic CAPM and Fama and French models, which allow for evaluating management skills. We find the occurrence of the Sharpe ratio long-run persistence of money and bound funds. The study does not explicitly show long-run persistence in hybrid and stock fund portfolios. The CAPM and Fama and French models simulations of returns on stock and hybrid funds indicate varying management skills during five-year periods.     

Technical Analysis as a Rational Tool of Decision Making for Professional Traders

The psychological background of technical analysis usage is investigated to further explain the popularity and common usage of technical analysis as an investment decision tool. Attitudes toward technical analysis of professional futures market traders and neophyte investors, represented by finance students, were examined. Technical analysis is one of the most popular methods supporting investment decisions and it is much more popular among future market traders than among neophyte investors. The concept of processing information was used to explain this phenomenon. Neophyte investors are more experiential and intuition-driven while using technical analysis models, while futures market traders are more rationally driven. Technical analysis methods help professional traders on futures markets, which are less transparent than regulated stock markets, to process information; those methods are perceived by them as rational, cognitive tools supporting their decision making.     

Partial privatisation: The caveats and expriences

Partial privatisation, in which a more or less large number of residul shareholdings remain in the hands of the state, is a widespread phenomenon in the countries of Central and Eastern Europe. The following paper compares experiences in Poland with those of the UK, where there has been extensive privatistion of public utilities in the last 20 years, and concludes with some policy recommendations for the transforming countries. The original version of this paper was commissioned by the OECD and presented at its workshop on Management and Sale of Residual Shareholdings, Berlin, Germany, May 1996.     

Perceptions of older consumers regarding food packaging as a prerequisite for its improvement: A case study of Polish market

In many societies, the scale of demographic change associated with increased longevity has the potential to influence the market for consumer goods. As a result, continuous improvement in packaging design that takes into account the needs of older people should become an important challenge for both packaging producers and product manufacturers. Due to the fact that there is limited research concerning the design of food packaging for older people, the aim of the study was to identify the expectations of this group of consumers in this respect. Milk packaging was selected as a model subject of study. Factors influencing older consumers and their buying patterns when purchasing milk have been thoroughly examined. The research was conducted among people over the age of 60 with the use of three methods: a questionnaire (600 subjects), an in‐depth interview (60 subjects) and eye tracking (30 subjects). The results of the study show that older consumers have specific preferences regarding packaging type and design. When considering milk packaging, for example, they prefer glass bottles, simple graphics and font and subdued colours. They most frequently look for information concerning the product's expiration date, its producer's name and its composition. Eye tracking revealed that the older the consumers are, the more problems with finding expiration date they have. The time required to find such information, however, strongly depends on where exactly the expiration date is printed on the packaging. The preferred place in this case is the top of the bottle. Older consumers identify product's brand with the name of the producer. Moreover, the absence of the term ‘ingredients’: on the milk packaging oftentimes causes confusion among older people, who are concerned about potential food additive content.     

Selection of a Representative Value Function for Robust Ordinal Regression in Group Decision Making

In this paper, we introduce the concept of a representative value function in a group decision context. We extend recently proposed methods UTA^GMS-GROUP and UTADIS^GMS-GROUP with selection of a compromise and collective preference model which aggregates preferences of several decision makers (DMs) and represents all instances of preference models compatible with preference information elicited from DMs. The representative value function is built on results of robust ordinal regression, so its representativeness can be interpreted in terms of robustness concern. We propose a few procedures designed for multiple criteria ranking, choice, and sorting problems. The use of these procedures is conditioned by both satisfying different degrees of consistency of the preference information provided by all DMs, as well as by some properties of particular decision making situations. The representative value function is intended to help the DMs to understand the robust results, and to provide them with a compromise result in case of conflict between the DMs.     

Cluster-mapping procedure for tourism regions based on geostatistics and fuzzy clustering: example of Polish districts

ABSTRACT

In tourism, the phenomenon of spatial agglomeration (concentration of economic activity) spreads beyond the borders of the territorial units. It is referred to as geographic ‘spillovers’ that enhances spatial interdependence and functional relationship of neighbouring regions. Within the standard procedure of cluster-mapping, only concentration inside a territorial unit may be analysed which is a source of biased results in tourism studies. However, tourist agglomeration centres sometimes occur at the juncture of territorial units and the economic entities located in them form spatial clusters with a different degree of membership to several centres of agglomerations located in the neighbourhood. Therefore, we propose to measure ‘inter-regional’ agglomeration in tourism providing modification of spatial autocorrelation measures (regarding neighbourhood and distance). In order to measure neighbourhood more precisely, we use geostatistical information (global positioning system (GPS) coordinates of tourism entities) and geographically weighted fuzzy clustering approach (FGWC). We examine the method on the example of Polish districts (NUTS-4) using database of 131,338 firms registered in section I (accommodation and food services) of Polish Classification of Activity in 2015. The results proved that a novel method of cluster-mapping considering spatial dependency combined with geographic information system (GIS) and FGWC method increases the accuracy of the identification of tourism clusters (inter-regional agglomeration).     

Macroeconomic Effects of an Ageing Population in Mauritius

The economic literature focuses mostly on faster ageing of population among developed countries; however, many developing countries experience even more dramatic pace of this process. Mauritius, with the median age of population higher than the world average since 1990s, represents a prominent example of such a case. In this paper, we analyse demographic developments in Mauritius and discuss their macroeconomic implications using an open-economy OLG model with demographic shocks. We project that a decline in the Mauritian interest rate and net foreign assets to GDP resulting from ageing will be accompanied by a temporary increase in GDP, consumption and investment.     

Demographic impacts in central and eastern European countries

All countries undergoing socioeconomic transformation in the central, eastern, and southeastern parts of Europe, regardless of the progress made in systemic transformation, have witnessed significant changes in their population. This paper presents some of these demographic changes and considers the dynamics produced by a drop in reproduction rates and the declining frequency of marriages. The intensity of these changes tended to vary. All of the countries, with the exception of Albania, are characterized by low birth rates approaching nominally the level of death rates. Infant mortality rates in the majority of the countries were relatively high at the beginning of the 1990s compared with their minimum.     

Economic transition and elections in Poland1

Poland's economic and political transition, one of the most successful, has depended very heavily on job creation in new firms to replace the jobs lost in the formerly state‐owned enterprises. This paper uses survey and aggregate data from three Polish elections to suggest that these de novo firms, the individuals they employ, and the residents in the local areas where they exist become an important constituency supporting pro‐reform political parties and constraining the actions of parties less sympathetic to the reforms. The creation of this political constituency helps explain how countries can successfully pursue both economic and political reforms. JEL classification: D72, P26.     

Cross-country linkages as determinants of procyclicality of loan loss provisions

Procyclicality in banking may result in financial instability and therefore be destructive to economic growth. The sensitivity of different banking balance sheet and income statement variables to the business cycle is diversified and may be prone to increasing integration of financial markets. In this paper, we address the problem of the influence of financial integration on the transmission of economic shocks from one country to another and consequently on the sensitivity of loan loss provisions (LLPs) to the business cycle. The application of the seemingly unrelated regression equations (SURE) approach to 13 OECD countries in 1995–2009 shows that the procyclicality of LLPs is statistically significant almost in the whole sample of countries. Regardless of the econometric specification, the income-smoothing, capital management and risk management hypotheses are hardly supported by the data. However, in SURE specification, the relationship of bank-specific variables is of higher statistical significance than in the country regression approach. Hence, cross-country interconnectedness is not only economically, but also empirically important when analyzing cross-country diversifications of LLPs.