Modelling milk purchasing behaviour with a panel data double-hurdle model

In this study, the double-hurdle model typically used in cross-sectional data is extended to panel data structures. The new double-hurdle model can account not only for the censored nature of commodity purchases, but also for the dynamics of the purchase process. In this model, a flexible error structure is assumed to account for state dependence and household-specific heterogeneity. In the empirical application for milk purchases, it is found that generic advertising increases the probability of market participation as well as the purchase quantity and incidence. Temporal dependence is also found in both purchase and participation equations.     

Quantifying Decommissioning Risk in the Deepwater Gulf of Mexico

Deepwater oil and gas structures are expensive to install and will be expensive to dismantle when the asset no longer serves a useful purpose. Deepwater structures present special risk because decommissioning expenditures are expected to cost tens to hundreds of millions of dollars to perform, and occur when the asset no longer generates revenue. An analytic framework is presented to quantify the decommissioning risk of offshore structures by comparing the value of an asset's reserves to its undiscounted asset retirement obligations. The procedure is applied to the deepwater fixed platform and compliant tower inventory in the Gulf of Mexico circa January 2013.     

Spatial economic analysis of early detection and rapid response strategies for an invasive species

Economic impacts from invasive species, conveyed as expected damages to assets from invasion and expected costs of successful prevention and/or removal, may vary significantly across spatially differentiated landscapes. We develop a spatial–dynamic model for optimal early detection and rapid response (EDRR) policies, commonly exploited in the management of potential invaders around the world, and apply it to the case of the Brown treesnake (Boiga irregularis) in Oahu, Hawaii. EDRR consists of search activities beyond the ports of entry, where search (and potentially removal) efforts are targeted toward areas where credible evidence suggests the presence of an invader. EDRR costs are a spatially dependent variable related to the ease or difficulty of searching an area, while damages are assumed to be a population-dependent variable. A myopic strategy in which search only occurs when and where current expected net returns are positive is attractive to managers, and, we find, significantly lowers present value losses (by $270 m over 30 years). We find further that in the tradeoff between search costs and damages avoided, early and aggressive measures that search some high priority areas beyond points of entry even when current costs of search exceed current damages can save the island more ($295 m over 30 years). Extensive or non-targeted search is not advised however.     

Efficient Hedge Fund Strategy Allocations – Systematic Framework for Investors that Incorporates Higher Moments

In this paper, we provide a realistic framework that investors can use to optimize hedge fund portfolio strategy allocations. Our approach includes important aspects that investors need to address in the real world, such as how limited resources can restrict the ability to conduct multiple due diligences. Additionally, our approach is not based on a utility function, but on an easily quantifiable preference parameter, lambda. We need to account for higher moments of the return distribution within our optimization and approximate a best‐fit distribution. Thus we replace the empirical return distributions, which are often skewed or exhibit excess kurtosis, with two normal distributions. We then use the estimated return distributions in the strategy optimization. Our dataset comes from the Lipper TASS Hedge Fund Database and covers the June 1996‐December 2008 time period. Our results show in‐ and out‐of‐sample that our framework yields superior results to the Markowitz framework. It is also better able to manage regime switches, which tend to occur frequently during crises. Lastly, to test our results for stability, we use robustness tests, which allow for the time‐varying correlation structures of the strategies.     

True versus spurious state dependence in firm performance

This paper analyzes the persistence of firms’ exporting behavior in a panel of German manufacturing firms using dynamic binary choice models. We distinguish between true and spurious state dependence in exports and apply fixed effects methods that allow us to verify the robustness of our results to critical assumptions on firms’ initial export status. We find robust evidence of state dependence in the current export status of firms. We also document an important role of unobserved permanent firm heterogeneity (spurious state dependence) and quantify the relative importance of different export determinants. Our results, which are consistent with the findings of previous studies on firms in developing countries and in the United States, show the presence of important sunk costs in export market entry and a depreciation of knowledge and experience in export markets. This paper benefitted substantially from three anonymous referees and Bernd Fitzenberger, one of the editors of this journal. The authors wish to thank the Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW), Mannheim, for its hospitality during the time this study was carried out. Both authors gratefully acknowledge helpful comments received at a workshop hosted by the Centre for Applied Microeconometrics, University of Copenhagen workshop, especially those from Bo Honoré. Useful discussions with Georg Licht also lead to improvements of this paper. We thank Ken Chay for sharing Gauss codes used in parts of the paper. Lastly, we would like to thank Bettina Peters, a member of the ZEW team that compiles the data set used in this study, for data guidance and numerous helpful comments. The activities of the Centre for Applied Microeconometrics are financed by a grant from the Danish National Research Foundation.     

Joint Ventures as an Internationalisation Strategy for SMEs

For some time believed to be inferior to Wholly Foreign-Owned Enterprises, Joint Ventures have become a popular vehicle for foreign market servicing. Although there are various proponents of the joint venture strategy as a means of enabling SMEs with limited productive resources and/or market knowledge to enter international markets, relatively few have focused on the actual joint venturing activities of SMEs. This article examines the activities of 9 U.K. and 12 German SMEs that have joint ventures in China. Based on a questionnaire survey and in-depth case interviews, it reveals that the initiatives appear to have been successful but that they are not without their problems and in many ways the experiences of the firms involved seem similar to those of the large multi-national enterprises. It argues that the key to success appears to be the choice of the joint venture partner and concludes that, given the limited resources of small firms, assistance is required to help them locate and select appropriate partners.     

Local Sourcing in China: The Case of Braun Electric (Shanghai) Co. Ltd

Increasingly, multinational enterprises manufacture locally in China, for reasons of cheap labour or as a means of more efficiently penetrating the vast Chinese market. However, the literature suggests a range of problems associated with local manufacturing, such as the sourcing of locally produced components and materials. This study looks into the case of Braun Electric (Shanghai) Co Ltd., a wholly owned subsidiary of Braun AG of Germany, which produces electric foil shavers in China, examining its reasons for local sourcing, associated problems and resulting strategies. The case study is based on a two-week research visit to the company in January 1996.     

Economic Evaluation and Optimization of the Degree of Automation in Insurance Processes

In the context of value and customer orientation there are various requirements concerning the process – especially in insurance companies: processes are meant to be standardized, automated, and flexible. It is in question whether a fast and cheap automated processing is preferred to manual handling. For which claims and which process steps is it of economic value to have the flexibility and the competence and ability to solve problems of human operators at your disposal? Various combinations, representing different degrees of automation, are possible. The different degrees of automation for the processing of an insurance claims are compared and resulting cash flows are determined. It is essential to include all consequences that can be attributed to a single process and to consider customer reactions and restrictions to the capacity of processing. Instead of using heuristic rules to decide on automation in practice, here the decision is flexible and depends on the given situation. Viewing an aggregated number of insurance claims it is possible to deduce information about the performance of the process. The model is exemplarily illustrated with help of a part of the process for handling own damage glass claims.