Is it still economic to build a new coal-fired power plant in the U.S.? A real option analysis

In the U.S., virtually no new coal-fired power plants have been built in recent years. Both industry experts and academics seem to believe that no rational firm will build a new coal-fired plant. Will such a trend continue in the future? To provide insights into this question, we investigate the optimal decision of an electricity company with an irreversible and deferrable opportunity to build either a new coal-fired or natural gas-fired power plant as its new base-load resource. According to our real option analysis, the optimal decision depends on the location. In the case of the eastern U.S., it is optimal to choose a natural gas plant if a firm is given a choice among a new natural gas plant, a new coal plant and deferring the investment. However, contrary to the common sentiment in the industry and academia, building a new coal plant in the western U.S. is still more economical than building a new natural gas plant in the absence of emission pricing. Furthermore, introducing carbon pricing to western U.S. states, as California did, can substantially increase the probability that a firm will optimally choose a natural gas plant over a coal plant.     

资源禀赋对保护区劳动力转移的影响分析——以朱鹮国家级自然保护区为例

利用秦岭南坡洋县和宁陕县随机抽取的308位农户的数据,建立资源禀赋对劳动力转移的影响的Logit模型。研究结果表明:资源禀赋对农户外出决策影响十分小,说明农户对传统资源的依赖度的降低;而上学小孩的多少对农户外出行为影响较大,说明教育支出给农户带来巨大的经济压力,是促使农户外出的重要影响因素。     

Does an Audit Judgment Rule Increase or Decrease Auditors' Use of Innovative Audit Procedures?

The current audit environment encourages auditors to conduct defensive auditing procedures in lieu of using new, innovative, and potentially more effective audit procedures, due to concerns these procedures may be second-guessed in litigation or by audit inspectors such as the PCAOB. As a result, auditors may prefer traditional “generally accepted” procedures over innovative procedures that are potentially more effective. We test recent proposals that an Audit Judgment Rule (AJR) encourages the use of innovative, and potentially more effective, audit procedures analogous to the similar Business Judgment Rule that affords legal protections to corporate directors. Under an AJR, litigators or audit inspectors could not second-guess auditor judgments, even if they perceive that alternate judgments would have ordinarily been reached, provided the auditor's judgment was made in good faith and in a rigorous manner. However, the AJR's requirements that auditors must defend the rigor of their innovative judgments could potentially backfire and lead auditors to select more traditional procedures. Under the framework of goal activation theory, we conduct an experiment with audit managers and seniors and find that an AJR makes auditors less likely to select innovative audit procedures, particularly when audit risk is high. They do so despite believing the innovative procedures to be more effective than the traditional procedures. Findings from a supplementary experiment with experienced auditors further suggest that national office affirmation of the reasonableness of the procedures does not help overcome this effect. Overall, our findings suggest that an AJR may have the unintended consequence of further increasing auditors' focus on more traditional, and potentially less effective, audit procedures.     

信息不对称条件下的中国零售业营销研究

一、信息不对称条件下中国零售业的营销困难 信息不对称给中国零售业营销带来了困难。那么，这些困难是什么？其具体表现形式又是怎样的呢？让我们逐一考察。     

试论税收调节收入分配的局限性以及教育问题的引入

改革开放以来中国国民经济的持续快速发展，促进了城乡居民收入总体的不断提高，客观上也带来了经济利益在不同利益群体间的重新调整和分配及社会收入分层的加剧，居民收入差距在城乡、行业、地区之间的扩大，逐步成为现阶段收入分配领域的焦点问题。一些人把我国贫富差距拉大的原因归咎于没有建立起一套完善的税制，致使税收的调控功能没有有效发挥出来。笔者认为，这种说法是有失偏颇的。     

基于Ф-OTDR的管道光纤预警系统应用统计分析

基于 Ф-OTDR分布式光纤传感的管道光纤预警系统,利用同沟敷设的光缆作为分布式振动传感器,连续实时检测管道周围的振动信号进行提前预警与定位,通过长输油气管道测试与应用效果展示,系统具有较高的预警灵敏度、定位精度和有效预警准确率.结合应用实际,构建技防+人防管道安全防护体系.     

Changes of Thai economy since 19701 1

Within the last 30 years, the number of Thai population increased from 35 million to 62 million, the general price level went up 6 times, and Thai currency baht devaluated 2.2 times against the dollar. The industrial production increased 36 times nominally. The biggest industry of Thailand changed from agriculture to manufacture, and the total value of exports jumped by 192 times and that of imports grew by 95 times. Thai current account balance had recorded a deficit every year from 1970 to 1996. During the same period of time, however, the capital account balance had shown surplus. The inflow of foreign capital was the only stronghold of Thai economy at that time. In 1997, Thailand suddenly experienced a total change of its external environment From then on, Thai current account shifted from a deficit to a surplus and Thai capital account turned from a surplus to a deficit. The conclusion of this paper indicates that the future of Thai economy is heavily dependent on whether the amount of surplus in Thai current account could surpass the deficit in Thai capital account     

规划理论二分法中的本体理论和程序理论

规划的本体理论与程序理论是规划理论二分法中最为显著的一组二元对立.首先界定了规划本体与规划程序之间的差异,然后通过辨析三组规划理论,即规划中的理论与规划的理论、系统理论与理性理论、导向型理论与交往型理论,深入探讨了规划的本体理论与程序理论之间的联系与区别,以及它们对规划方法和实践的影响.     

我国城市垃圾管理公司运营模式研究

以公共产品理论及相关概念为基础,分析了垃圾管理市场化必须具备的条件,提出了城市垃圾管理公司的组建模式及其内部业务流程设计,并比较研究了两种新的收费载体的可行性和特点.