Is econometrics useful for private policy making? A case study of replacement policy at an auto rental company

The goal of this paper is to illustrate the potential usefulness of econometrics as a tool to assist private policy makers. We provide a case study and detailed econometric analysis of the automobile replacement policy adopted by a large car rental company. Unlike public policy making–where the benefits from using econometric models and “science-based” approaches to policy making are hard to quantify because the outcomes of interest are typically subjective quantities such as “social welfare”–in the case of firms there is an objective, easily quantifiable criterion for judging whether policy A is better than policy B: profits. We introduce and estimate an econometric model of the rental histories of individual cars in the company’s fleet. Via stochastic simulations, we show that the model provides a good approximation to the company’s actual operations. In particular, the econometric model is able to reproduce the extraordinarily high rates of return that the company obtains on its rental cars, with average internal rates of return between purchase and sale of approximately 50%. However, the econometric model can simulate outcomes under a range of counterfactual vehicle replacement policies. We use the econometric model to simulate the profitability of an alternative replacement policy under pessimistic assumptions about the rate maintenance costs would increase and rental rates would have to be decreased if the company were to keep its rental cars longer than it does under the status quo. Depending on the vehicle type, we find that the company’s expected discounted profits would be between 6% to over 140% higher under the suggested alternative operating strategy where vehicles are kept longer and rental rates of older vehicles are discounted to induce customers to rent them. The company found this analysis to be sufficiently convincing that it undertook an experiment to verify the predictions of the econometric model.     

基于实物期权的房地产最优开发时机

本文主要利用实物期权定价理论,结合房地产实际投资状况,通过处理房地产开发项目的单位价格和单位建设成本之间的相互影响,建立了关于价格与成本之间的房地产最优投资决策时机模型,探讨了房地产开发的最适时机的选择问题。     

IT与业务匹配中的信息化冲突探索

信息化冲突是企业信息技术(IT)与业务匹配中普遍存在的重要障碍之一。本文在对现有文献整理基础上,对IT与业务匹配中信息化冲突产生的原因进行了系统的分析,将信息化冲突划分为任务冲突和关系冲突两种类型,并对二者之间的关系进行了分析。从行为整合角度给出了解决信息化冲突的途径。     

“3G时代”我国电子商务发展面临的新问题与措施分析

3G时代一方面给电子商务的发展提供了广阔的前景,另一方面也给电子商务的进一步发展提出了新的挑战。只有真正解决了这些问题,才能进一步促进我国电子商务的发展。     

体育院校附属竞技体育学校发展的SWOT分析

文章运用SWOT分析方法对附属竞技体育学校发展面临的机遇与挑战进行分析,结合新时期社会对运动员培养的新要求,对附属竞技体育学校的发展进行预测。     

改革现行会计委派制 建立会计代理制

对于国有企业(及国家机关部门和事业单位)来说,建立“外派”会计制度是内在的要求,应该坚持做好。“外派”会计是财务监督会计,与企业内部管理会计并行不悖。不过,现行的会计委派制确实增加了企业经理人员和委派会计人员或财务总监之间产生对立或合谋的可能性,某种意义上成为政府干预企业的新机制、新形式,这影响到会计委派制的实际效果。而由会计师事务所等中介服务机构来充当企业的财务总监的会计代理制却能较好地隔离政府与企业,并在两者之间形成适当的平衡。     

南京市可持续发展评价指标体系及其实践

本文运用目标层、准则层、领域层和指标层的递级层次结构模式构建了南京市可持续发展指标体系 ,并应用此体系对南京市可持续发展进行综合评价与分析。     

产业转移中地方政府环境法治失灵的表象及匡正——基于江西承接产业转移的实证分析

从江西承接产业转移的问题入手,分析了产业转移对江西生态环境的负面效应,以及产业转移中地方政府环境法治的失灵。这种法治失灵突出的表现在:环境立法的失灵、环境执法的失灵和环境司法的失灵。对此,从完善相关法律政策体系、创新环境执法机制和推进环境司法进程三个方面予以了匡正。