A new energy security paradigm for the twenty-first century

Conventional energy security has been focused on the depletion of natural resources, particularly oil, natural gas and coal. More recently, the link between energy security and the military has been made, focused on the defence of international oil tanker chokepoints and the free flow of oil through these trade routes. This paper considers a possible future in which, the impacts of climate change have been realized far earlier than most experts have previously expected. This has promoted a transition to cleaner energy technologies long before the depletion of fossil fuel resources. In this scenario, the peak in demand for fossil fuels occurs before the peak in supply and some nations are strongly promoting the development and deployment of clean energy technologies. Some private companies developing and deploying these technologies benefit from sudden market expansion, fuelled largely by the world's richest nations struggling to reduce their carbon footprint.In this scenario the countries of the world would fall into one of the three categories: (1) the countries willing and readily able to adjust in response to rapid and serious climate change, (2) the countries willing to adjust, but facing significant economic hardship without external assistance and protection, (3) and those countries unwilling and, perhaps to their perception at least, unable to play a part in combating climate change. In this scenario, the Western Economies will likely fall under the first category while the BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China) might fall into the second category. These nations together are needed to achieve a viable, powerful, and effective formal or informal “Clean Energy Alliance”. Some countries however will probably fall into the third category. This paper considers how countries in the first two categories could respond by adjusting their foreign, trade and even military policies.If climate change is as severe and as pressing as some fear, leadership will be needed from those nations who are most capable of responding to the crisis. Within a generation, the great powers might find themselves shifting from keeping trade routes open to constraining the same trade. Severe climate change impacts could even approach the timescale of technological innovation needed to respond to this crisis. This paper proposes that our world may need new military and foreign policy options as well as new energy technology options in the years to come. Parallels are drawn between the challenge of decarbonising the global energy systems in the early twenty-first century and the ethical imperative of ending slavery in the early nineteenth century.     

Using base-year data with empirical scenario models

In quantitative scenarios, empirical models are frequently used to provide estimated values for variables. However, in the base year the values are known, and will almost certainly be different from the values estimated by the model. It is shown that the gaps between observed and modeled values (the residuals, or shift factors) in the base year can be used to provide estimates of the residuals in the scenario that improve the performance of the empirical model. A self-consistent estimator is proposed, and is shown to be effective by applying it to specific examples.     

Toxicogenomic predictive modeling: Emerging opportunities for more efficient drug discovery and development

Drug discovery companies are coming under increasing pressure to prove the long-term safety of their products more precisely, and to provide more data on them. As highlighted by Vioxx, for many drugs, the existence of adverse drug reactions (ADRs) becomes apparent once the compound has been extensively prescribed and a population base of considerable size has been exposed to the therapeutic agent. The ability to make decisions regarding termination of clinical development of a non-viable drug candidate as early as possible will have a large financial impact for a pharmaceutical company. Knowledge regarding the interactions of chemicals, genes, and cell function can improve chemical risk analyses. These efforts will be aided by continued improvement and expansion of predictive toxicology in combination with a range of mutually supportive technologies to develop strategies to facilitate better and more focused decision-making throughout the drug discovery process. Failure to implement such an approach causes companies to withdraw drugs from development or the market. This not only presents human health consequences but also has a negative economic impact on the industry. As such, one of the major challenges in drug discovery is to accurately predict which new drugs will be associated with a significant incidence of ADRs. The ability to produce information on potential toxicity early in the discovery phase will become the basis for judging whether a drug candidate merits further development.     

Evaluating latecomer growth in information technology: A historical perspective

From a low initial base it is not difficult for developing countries to close the relative digital divide with the developed countries. A more challenging and novel question is whether, because of leapfrogging and other latecomer advantages, developing countries have grown faster than developed from the same initial starting point. Or, is it the case rather that the disadvantages of being a latecomer exceed the advantages? Are there any pronounced outliers among the developing countries and what are their distinguishing characteristics? Using a number of methods and data sources I seek to answer these questions in a tentative but provocative manner.     

Knowledge sharing in an organization

Managers are always seeking effective policies that encourage employees to share their knowledge with others in an organization. The appropriate organizational incentives are difficult to investigate due to human factors and other institutional complexities affecting sharing behaviors of individuals. Conducting laboratory or field experiments to evaluate the effectiveness of various organizational incentive policies is unrealistic. This work proposes a novel agent-based modeling approach to simulate the actions of knowledge sharing between actors in an organization. Several human and institutional factors in this artificial world were manipulated to understand knowledge sharing. The simulation results produce the following interesting findings. (1) The initial state of actors' action affects the knowledge-sharing action regardless of the adopted strategy. (2) Poorer collective capability among the population lowers the knowledge sharing behaviors. (3) The incentive policy has restricted effects for increasing the sharing action. Rewarding each knowledge-sharing action is more effective than the periodic organizational incentives to encourage actors' knowledge sharing behaviors.     

Workforce shortages are a global issue

A consortium of international organizations convened a first-ever Global Health Care Workforce Conference to discuss the worldwide shortages of health care workers and the migration patterns of health care workers from developing nations to the first world. Over 300 participants from 47 countries, including one-third from developing countries, discussed a variety of critical issues ranging from global immigration, recruitment, economics, to partnerships. Results, recommendations, and actionable items generated from the conference, as well as ways to put these ideas into practice, will be critical for sustaining and improving world health and the plight and numbers of health care providers.     

Using Followership to Develop New Leadership in Cultures with Greater Power Distance

Leadership theories abound in individualistic societies with the promise that anyone can become a successful leader by following certain guidelines. However, many of our existing theories are culturally specific to individualistic societies with low power distance. People from more collectivist cultures, in which power distance is greater, have a very different perspective of what they can do. In the current paper, I discuss how followership can be helpful for empowering people in large power distant cultures and offer five strategies, using Honduras as an example. The strategies are based on a theoretical examination of basic followership concepts with Hofstede's cultural dimensions of power distance and collectivism (Hofstede, Hofstede, & Minkov, 2010).     

Earnings components and the asymmetric timeliness of earnings: the case of FRS 3 in the UK

We exploit a unique setting to examine how an accounting regulation change affects the asymmetric timeliness of earnings. Financial Reporting Standard No. 3: Reporting Financial Performance (FRS 3) changed the way listed UK companies recognised bad news through ordinary or extraordinary items. FRS 3 tightened the definition of extraordinary items but gave wider discretion in classifying exceptional items. The results were that, after FRS 3, the asymmetric timeliness of earnings before extraordinary items increased and the association of earnings conservatism with discretionary accruals was weaker.