Modeling Expectation Formation Involving Several Sources of Information

Abstract. Experimental studies of expectation formation of subjects are predominantly limited to the prediction of one single time series despite the practical relevance of expectations in situations with multiple sources of information. In this paper, we report on an experiment in which subjects are given time series (indicators) as additional information for the judgemental forecast of a stationary time series. The quality and the number of these indicators are varied in three versions of a forecasting experiment. We explore the effects on forecasting accuracy and we test the average forecasts of the subjects for consistency with the rational expectations hypothesis. A simple heuristic is presented that explains the average forecasting behavior better than the rational expectations if indicators are presented to the subjects. It is demonstrated by a simulation study that this result is representative for the considered stationary stochastic processes.     

Growth in global materials use, GDP and population during the 20th century

The growing industrial metabolism is a major driver of global environmental change. We present an assessment of the global use of materials since the beginning of the 20th century based on the conceptual and methodological principles of material flow accounting (MFA). On the grounds of published statistical data, data compilations and estimation procedures for material flows not covered by international statistical sources, we compiled a quantitative estimate of annual global extraction of biomass, fossil energy carriers, metal ores, industrial minerals and construction minerals for the period 1900 to 2005. This period covers important phases of global industrialisation and economic growth. The paper analyses the observed changes in the overall size and composition of global material flows in relation to the global economy, population growth and primary energy consumption. We show that during the last century, global materials use increased 8-fold. Humanity currently uses almost 60 billion tons (Gt) of materials per year. In particular, the period after WWII was characterized by rapid physical growth, driven by both population and economic growth. Within this period there was a shift from the dominance of renewable biomass towards mineral materials. Materials use increased at a slower pace than the global economy, but faster than world population. As a consequence, material intensity (i.e. the amount of materials required per unit of GDP) declined, while materials use per capita doubled from 4.6 to 10.3 t/cap/yr. The main material groups show different trajectories. While biomass use hardly keeps up with population growth, the mineral fractions grow at a rapid pace. We show that increases in material productivity are mostly due to the slow growth of biomass use, while they are much less pronounced for the mineral fractions. So far there is no evidence that growth of global materials use is slowing down or might eventually decline and our results indicate that an increase in material productivity is a general feature of economic development.     

Regulating a model

We study a situation in which a regulator relies on risk models that banks produce in order to regulate them. A bank can generate more than one model and choose which models to reveal to the regulator. The regulator can find out the other models by monitoring the bank, but in equilibrium, monitoring induces the bank to produce less information. We show that a high level of monitoring is desirable when the bank’s private gain from producing more information is either sufficiently high or sufficiently low. When public models are more precise, banks produce more information, but the regulator may end up monitoring more.     

Managing and reporting intangible assets in research technology organisations

In the last couple of years, new instruments and methods for measuring, valuing and managing different forms of intangible assets have been proposed. Firms started to implement comprehensive management techniques to identify and value different forms of intangible assets based on an integrative framework, incorporating different forms of intangible assets such as R&D and human capital. Research Technology Organisations (RTOs) present an interesting case for studying different forms of intangible assets, their interdependencies and their impact on outputs. The main business of these organisations is R&D; thus, nearly all forms of investments are related to the R&D process. Their outputs are knowledge-intensive products, services and public goods with the aim of improving the innovation output of their various customers. Some European RTOs have started to introduce new instruments for measuring and managing their intangible assets more explicitly. The paper investigates the general background, a specific model and empirical experiences of an Austrian RTO, which introduced an intellectual capital management system.     

Erneuerung oder Ende der Lissabon-Strategie?

Auf dem Frühjahrsgipfel der Staats- und Regierungschefs der Europ?ischen Union standen neue Impulse für die Lissabon-Strategie aus dem Jahr 2000 auf der Tagesordnung. Welche Ziele hatte die auf zehn Jahre ausgelegte Strategie? Welche Probleme treten bei ihrer Umsetzung auf? Was k?nnte verbessert werden? Prof. Dr. h.c. Christa Randzio-Plath, 65, ist Beraterin der Europ?ischen Kommission und war langj?hrige Vorsitzende des Wirtschafts- und W?hrungsausschusses des Europ?ischen Parlaments.     

P-Star as a link between money and prices in Germany

P-Star as a Link between Money and Prices in Germany. — The equilibrium price levelP-Star is defined as money per unit of potential output at equilibrium velocity. Deviations betweenP-Star and the actual price level (price gap) serve as an indicator of future price movements. To measure equilibrium velocity and to take into account its downward trend in Germany, a long-run money demand function is integrated into theP-Star approach. According to the empirical results, the constructed measure ofP-Star provides a stable link between M3 and the price level. However, comparable evidence could not be established for Ml and M2.     

Rechtliche Möglichkeiten der Qualitätssicherung im Journalismus

For some time, there has been a discussion on the necessity of a quality management, especially for newspapers. In Switzerland, this led to a proposal to add the goal of securing the quality of press coverage to the constitution. In an interdisciplinary perspective, this article attempts to describe a change in the German constitutional court’s concept of the public, the concept the court based its decisions on. It then argues the potential of, and the necessity for, a judicial basis for quality management in journalism. To be considered are: public funding, the introduction of auditioning procedures, the observation by an independent foundation, but also the specification of demands for care in liability cases according to the degrees of quality management in journalists’ research.