On the Predictability of the Stock Market Volatility: Does History Matter?

This study compares the performance of the ISD, the GARCH (1,1) , the historical volatility estimates and of two lagged trading volume measures for predicting the Swiss Stock Market Index's (SMI) volatility. The ISD has a superior daily informational content than the GARCH (1,1) estimate and retains unbiased but decreasing explanatory power over up to 20 days ahead horizons. Mean and spread daily volume measures play a significant correcting role when forecasting stock market volatility over daily and longer intervals respectively and clearly dominate the GARCH (1,1) forecasts. Their significance emphasises heterogeneous horizon traders' influence on the SMI volatility time series properties     

Auditors gone wild: The “other” problem in public accounting

Following the scandals involving Enron, WorldCom, and Qwest Communications, the accounting profession has spent the past several years trying to get back on track. While Sarbanes-Oxley may improve the decision-making of audit professionals, and help prevent future large-scale catastrophes that hurt stockholders and bring down firms, there is another problem in public accounting that few consider and nobody has proposed to solve: deviant workplace behavior. Previous research describes deviant workplace behavior as the voluntary behavior of organizational members that violates significant organizational norms and, in so doing, threatens the well being of the organization and/or its members. Building from recent work in various business literatures, this is the first research since the passage of Sarbanes-Oxley to examine workplace deviance at Big 4 accounting firms. Taking a cross-disciplinary, collaborative approach, the authors endeavor to explain why workplace deviance has infiltrated accounting firms and how it is undermining their effectiveness and derailing their long-term prospects for success. After describing its genesis and effects, the authors prescribe several managerial strategies for preventing deviance and minimizing its effects on a firm.     

Issues in New Political Economy: An Overview

A brief overview of the historical background, nature, and rapid growth in volume and scope of new political economy since the early 1980s is provided. the paper continues with some general reflections on the strengths and weaknesses of the new political economy approach, illustrated by the other contributions to this special issue of the Journal of Economic Surveys . The final Section summarises these contributions.     

Gender differences in portfolio risk across birth cohort and marital status

This paper investigates gender differences in portfolio risk among Canadian men and women and finds that, controlling for a variety of personal and household characteristics, never married men, born post‐1966, hold significantly higher risk portfolios relative to single women and married couples. Conversely, observed gender differences among pre‐1943 birth cohorts are primarily driven by disparities in characteristics rather than gender or marital status. Previously married women, born 1955–1966, have remarkably high predicted portfolio risk relative to other women and men in the same cohort.     

The perception of fire risk by older people and its impact on relevant fire safety education

Accidents due to ‘fire and flames’ are second only to “falls” as the most important cause of accidental death in the homes of elderly individuals throughout the United Kingdom. This study aims to ascertain whether older people are receiving fire accident advice appropriate to their needs. A questionnaire addressing the issues of risk perception, fire preventative action and access to fire safety information was distributed to 1100 randomly selected members of the ‘Thousand Elders’ (a nation-wide consumer group established by the Centre for Applied Gerontology at The University of Birmingham, comprising people above the age of 50 years). Eight hundred and four questionnaires were returned and were analysed using the Statistical Package for Social Sciences. Fire risk was perceived as far less of an immediate threat than the danger of a personal attack by an intruder in the home. Recognition of fire risk and the effectiveness of fire safety measures did not result directly in safety appliances being fitted. The majority of ‘Elders’ had received no fire-fighting training, yet more than half felt confident in tackling a small fire. Neither did experience of a fire in the home necessarily increase action towards safety precautions. The majority had not been exposed to a fire safety campaign in the past 12 months. On exposure to a campaign, the impact towards fire safety was positive. The educational process should aim to close the gap between the recognition of the need for fire safety precautions and the implementation of fire safety measures. The key to effective fire prevention amongst older people depends upon: Information, Training and Support, i.e., relevant information supported by practical help and subsequent practical training in-situ by trusted community figures.     

Adoption of the euro: Why is the Czech approach cautious?

When published, the Czech Euro-area Accession Strategy signalled a rather cautious approach to adopting the euro in comparison to the intentions of other EU acceding countries. The euro adoption was scheduled around 2010 and the ERM II was viewed only as a waiting room. The Czech strategy was attuned to specific features of the Czech economy. Although inflation and nominal interest rates converged to the EMU levels before EU entry, large fiscal deficits and the need for significant fiscal reform did not make it possible to meet the Maastrich criteria soon. Moreover, real convergence was viewed as a priority for the forthcoming years and, consequently, the strategy was aimed at maintaining nominal flexibility in order to cushion consequences of price and wage rigidities during the peak period of the catch-up process.     

One little Lebanese cucumber is not going to break the bank: Price in the choice of fresh fruits and vegetables

This paper reports on empirical research into individual consumer behaviour in the context of fresh fruit and vegetable purchases. The discussion draws on research results from two studies conducted around the actual shopping process. The findings suggest that consumers' price response behaviour may not be consistent with that predicted by economic theory and that this could be significant at the aggregate level. The existence of 'acceptable price ranges' points to the presence of price thresholds within which consumers are relatively insensitive to price movements. Also of relevance is that the primary influence of the budget constraint may be at a broader level rather than at the level of choosing particular products.     

Making the case for investment in fundraising

Fundraisers frequently find that trustees are reluctant to commit funds to investment in fundraising initiatives, whether this is developing existing fundraising work or investment in new areas. On the other hand, trustees often report that the plans put forward by fundraisers are too vague and do not present the case well enough. Commonly, there is more work to be done on both sides. First, this paper focuses on some of the financial plans that should be developed as part of the case for investment, as this is often the weakest area. The paper then demonstrates how this assists in appraising the risk profile of new initiatives and finally looks at the policy framework needed for decisions to be made. Copyright © 2004 Henry Stewart Publications