Countercyclical pricing: A consumer heterogeneity explanation

We show that a seasonal good could be priced countercyclically due to the heterogeneous seasonal shifts in consumer valuations. We provide empirical support for our explanation based on two product categories (canned soup and tuna) studied in the literature.     

OPTIMAL DISTRIBUTION OF POWERS IN A FEDERATION: A SIMPLE, UNIFIED FRAMEWORK

In a federation with n≥ 2 regions the relative optimality of five regimes – autarky, centralization, unregulated devolution, regulated devolution and direct democracy – is examined. Public policy consists of redistribution and regional public good provision. Regional incomes are uncertain and correlated. Estimates of the usefulness of regional public goods are uncertain and the federal government's estimates are noisier relative to those of regional governments. The optimality of each regime is influenced by four margins – regional insurance, coarseness of federal information, internalization of spillovers and raiding the commons. Regulated devolution is the only regime that is capable of producing the constrained first best level of public goods. Federal insurance under direct democracy can be inadequate relative to that under a utilitarian federal government. An increase in the number of regions allows better risk pooling but also greater opportunities for raiding the commons.     

Effective utility functions induced by organizational target‐based incentives

Many companies set performance targets for their divisions to decentralize the decision‐making process and communicate with outside investors. This paper analyzes the effects of performance targets on the decision‐making behavior of the divisions. We introduce the notion of an ‘effective utility function’—a function that a division should use in its selection of projects if it wishes to maximize the probability of achieving its targets. We show that many target‐based incentives induce S‐shaped utility functions and discuss the organizational problems they may pose. We then show how an organization can set targets that induce expected utility maximization. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A NOTE ON THE ‘GREAT CONTRACTION’

The modern literature on the US banking crisis in 1931 overlooks the key role played by ‘liquidity black holes’ and under‐pricing in the corporate and government bond markets resulting from the banking system's fire sale of assets. This process weakened the bank lending channel in a continuous feedback loop which was eventually checked by ‘money creation’ by the Federal Reserve. This note investigates the work of Evans Clark (1933 ) who highlighted the process of fire sales and mispricing of assets due to non‐fundamental causes.     

On choice of technique in the Robinson–Solow–Srinivasan model

We report results on the optimal "choice of technique" in a model originally formulated by Robinson, Solow and Srinivasan. By viewing this model as a specific instance of the general theory of intertemporal resource allocation associated with Brock, Gale and McKenzie, we resolve long-standing conjectures in the form of theorems on the existence and price-support of optimal paths, and on their long-run behavior. We also examine policies, due to Stiglitz, as a cornerstone for a theory of transition dynamics in this model. We present examples to show that: (i) an optimal program can be periodic; (ii) a Stiglitz' program can be bad; and (iii) a Stiglitz production program can be non-optimal. We then provide sufficient conditions under which the policies proposed by Stiglitz coincide with optimal behavior.     

Building the future: Undertaking proactive strategy for national outlook

Future studies should provide the means to forecast potential crisis in order to avoid them or limit their effects [Masini, E. 2006, Rethinking futures studies, Futures 38, 1158-1168]. Recognizing and realizing the future events from past up to the present have been the main concern of the rulers and policy makers from the very beginning of civilization. Future studies are a decisive part of the public decision process which plays a very distinctive role in the desirable future of a society. The role of elites in future studies and scenario building is notable; they design national policies and strategies and have a significant impact in general public. Although future cannot be foretold by anyone, the interactions of advanced nations seem to be counter productive; they try to depict the futures. In this case, the futures are built, not predicted. The interactions of two or more systems at the level of international relations have been discussed in this paper. The imaginations of general public toward the futures are given in each society by using these analogies: railroad, river, sea and game. Therefore, the intervention of advanced nations may confront passive, harmonic, active, proactive and chaotic reaction in the other nations. We have discussed that undertaking proactive strategy is the best way to design national perspective.     

Purchasing Power Parity before and after the Adoption of the Euro

This paper examines the purchasing power parity (PPP) hypothesis for the post–Bretton Woods era including the period after the introduction of the euro. The study applies a new nonlinear unit root test to the bilateral real exchange rates (RERs) of both European and other industrial countries with the French franc and German mark (and the euro after 1998), as well as the US dollar as numeraire currencies. The results of the study provide stronger support for PPP than any earlier studies of bilateral PPP for industrial countries and suggest that (1) PPP tends to hold well within the European Union (EU) even before the adoption of the euro, (2) the evidence for PPP becomes more significant for both EU and non-EU countries when the sample period is extended to the euro era, and (3) convergence toward PPP between the EU countries, especially between the euro-area countries, tends to be nonlinear, while it is likely to be linear for the non-EU industrial countries. JEL no. F31, F33, G15, C22