What can price volatility tell us about market efficiency? Conditional heteroscedasticity in historical commodity price series

The development in the working of markets has been an important topic in economic history for decades. The volatility of market prices is often used as an indicator of market efficiency in the broadest sense. Yet, the way in which volatility is estimated often makes it difficult to compare price volatility across regions or over time for two reasons. First, if prices are non-stationary, the variance is inflated. Second, the variance of commodity prices contains information on a number of region- and time-specific factors that are not related to market efficiency. Hence, the popular coefficient of variation and related indicators are not adequate measures of the efficiency of markets and are incomparable across regions. As a solution, we suggest using a conditional heteroscedasticity model to estimate the residual (conditional) variance of commodity prices. This measure reflects how markets react to unexpected events and can therefore be seen as a measure of market efficiency. Using this approach on grain prices from the Early Modern Pisa, Paris, Vienna, and Japan, we find that the residual price volatility had declined (and market efficiency increased) in the European markets in the late sixteenth century while it remained stable in Japan.     

The new goods margin in new markets

We analyze the role of the new goods margin in the Baltic countries’ exports and imports growth during the 1995–2008 period. Using the methodology developed in Kehoe and Ruhl (2013), we define the set of least-traded goods as those that account for the lowest 10% of total exports and imports in 1995, and then trace its growth in several markets including the Baltics’ main trade partners, the European Union and Russia. We find that, on average, by 2008 least-traded goods accounted for nearly 50% of total Baltic exports to their main trade partners. Moreover, we find that increases in the share of least-traded exports coincided with the timing of the trade liberalization reforms implemented by the Baltic countries. Least-traded imports also grew at robust rates, but their growth was lower than that of exports, accounting for slightly less than a quarter of total imports, that is, about half of the exports value. Moreover, we find that the shares of least-traded imports from the EU 15 and from Russia started diverging around the time the Baltic countries joined the EU, with the EU 15 share increasing and the Russian one declining. We also find that the Baltics’ share of least-traded exports outpaced that of other economies in Central and Eastern Europe. Finally, exports of new goods from the Baltic countries suffered noticeably during the Global Financial Crisis. After the crisis ended, the restart in new goods exports growth displayed mixed patterns.     

Economic Theory and the Problem of Translation

Institutionalism was the dominant approach to public finance prior to WWII, after which it was eclipsed by Pigouvianism and Keynesianism. This transition defined the career of Wisconsin’s Harold M. Groves (1897–1969). Groves was a notable public finance economist, leading textbook author, and drafter of significant tax and labor legislation. He represented the culmination of a multigenerational institutionalist tradition. In this paper, I examine Groves and postwar public finance as a test case for the legacy of Wisconsin institutionalism. To that end, I consider Groves’s contributions to postwar tax policy, his interactions with Henry C. Simons and Richard M. Musgrave, and his view on Keynesian public finance. I identify some Wisconsin institutionalist contributions to modern public finance and offer an explanation for the postwar decline in institutional public finance.     

Strategic Planning and Community Involvement as Contributors to Sustainable Tourism Development

This paper is concerned with the role of stakeholder driven strategic planning as a contributor to the ultimate sustainability of tourism development. An initial literature review describes the evolution of theory related to three specific issues in the study of tourism – sustainability of tourism development as a desirable goal, stakeholder participation as a contributor to sustainability, and strategic planning as an appropriate framework within which stakeholder driven development activity can occur. The review concludes that these concepts are well supported in the literature, with little empirical evidence available on which to base any meaningful level of support. It is therefore argued that the value of these propositions may exist more strongly in theory than in practice. After discussing a number of factors which may negatively impact upon the practical implementation of these theoretical constructs, the paper proposes a quantitative instrument by which a specific tourism development planning process can be assessed for its conformity with desirable principles of sustainability in tourism development. Closing paragraphs indicate an intention to test this instrument across a variety of regional settings.