Health Infrastructure, Demographic Transition and Growth

Empirical studies show that the fertility rate (mortality rate) exhibits an inverted u‐shaped dynamic in some countries, while it decreases monotonically in other countries. This paper formulates the concept of public health infrastructure and constructs a growth model that replicates various historically observed patterns of fertility and mortality rates.     

Poverty,inequality and ethnic minorities in Vietnam

The present study examines how and why ethnic minorities are poorer than ethnic majorities in Vietnam using the Vietnam Household Living Standards Survey data for 2002 and 2004. First, the analysis confirms that households belonging to the ethnic minority groups are not only poorer but also more vulnerable to various shocks than those in the ethnic majority groups, namely the Kinh and the Chinese. Second, household composition (e.g., dependency burden), education, land holding and location are important determinants of expenditure and poverty, whilst there is some diversity among different ethnic groups. Finally, the decomposition analyses reveal that the ethnic minorities are poorer not necessarily because they have more disadvantaged household characteristics (e.g., educational attainment or location), but, more importantly, because the returns to the characteristics are much lower for ethnic minorities than for the majorities. Government policies to reduce structural differences between ethnic majorities and minorities are imperative to address the disparities in returns to endowments between them.     

Intertemporal Labor Supply and Human Capital Accumulation*

We solve and estimate a dynamic model that allows agents to optimally choose their labor hours and consumption and that allows for both human capital accumulation and savings. Estimation results and simulation exercises indicate that the intertemporal elasticity of substitution is much higher than the conventional estimates and the downward bias comes from the omission of the human capital accumulation effect. The human capital accumulation effect renders the life‐cycle path of the shadow wage relatively flat, even though wages increase with age. Hence, a rather flat life‐cycle labor supply path can be reconciled with a high intertemporal elasticity of substitution.     

Poverty and vulnerability in rural China: effects of taxation

This paper studies the impact of taxation on poverty and ex ante vulnerability of households in rural China based on national household survey data in 1988, 1995 and 2002. It has been confirmed that (i) poverty and vulnerability have reduced significantly with a great deal of geographical disparity; (ii) education, land, and access to infrastructure and irrigation facilities are the key factors to reduce vulnerability; and (iii) the highly regressive tax system increased farmers’ poverty and vulnerability. The abolishment of rural tax since 2006 would thus have a significant negative impact on both poverty and vulnerability of rural households.     

Fiscal Stimulus,Agricultural Growth and Poverty in Asia

Recent debates on a sustainable recovery of the global economy have tended to overemphasise the ‘savings glut’ hypothesis and the unavoidable imperative of higher consumption in China and other emerging Asian countries. That oversaving and not underinvestment is coming in the way of a quicker and more durable recovery is not just simplistic but misleading from a medium‐term growth perspective for emerging Asian countries and other developing countries in this region. Drawing upon country panel data for developing countries and a subsample of Asian countries during the period 1991–2007, this study makes a case for a bold and coordinated fiscal stimulus, directed to stimulating agricultural and overall growth, and mitigation of poverty and hunger. Our simulations further suggest that poverty reduction is likely to be larger if the fiscal stimulus is directed to social spending in health and education sectors. Indeed, if our simulations of fiscal impacts have any validity, the dire predictions of millions getting trapped in poverty and hunger may turn out to be exaggerated. The prospects of a strong recovery led by fiscal stimulus are thus real and achievable.     

The simultaneous berth and quay crane allocation problem

This paper addresses efficient berth and crane allocation scheduling at a multi-user container terminal. First, we introduce a formulation for the simultaneous berth and crane allocation problem. Next, by employing genetic algorithm we develop a heuristic to find an approximate solution for the problem. The fitness value of a chromosome is obtained by crane transfer scheduling across berths, which is determined by a maximum flow problem-based algorithm based on a berth allocation problem solution defined by the chromosome. The results of numerical experiments show that the proposed heuristic is applicable to solve this difficult but essential terminal operation problem.     

The emergence of market monitoring in Japanese banks: Evidence from the subordinated debt market

This paper uses a unique data set on the spreads of subordinated debts issued by Japanese banks to investigate the presence of market monitoring. The results show that subordinated debt investors punished weak banks by requiring higher interest rates. Moreover, I find that the spreads and the sensitivity of spreads to Moody’s bank ratings both increased dramatically after the Japanese government allowed a large city bank, Hokkaido Takushoku Bank, to fail and passed the Financial Reform Act and the Rapid Revitalization Act in the late 1990s. These results suggest that the decline of conjectural guarantee led to the emergence of market monitoring. In addition, I find the relationship between spreads and accounting measures of bank risk to be quite fragile.     

Brand and Quantity Choice Dynamics Under Price Uncertainty

We develop a model of household demand for frequently purchased consumer goods that are branded, storable and subject to stochastic price fluctuations. Our framework accounts for how inventories and expectations of future prices affect current period purchase decisions. We estimate our model using scanner data for the ketchup category. Our results indicate that price expectations and the nature of the price process have important effects on demand elasticities. Long-run cross price elasticities of demand are more than twice as great as short-run cross price elasticities. Temporary price cuts (or deals) primarily generate purchase acceleration and category expansion, rather than brand switching.