On the Assessment of Default Risk in Commercial Mortgage Lending

This paper takes an initial step toward the development of an empirically-based model of default risk assessment in the commercial mortgage market. A review of existing empirical studies of residential mortgage and commercial loan default provides evidence for appropriate model specification and estimation. A simple default risk model for commercial mortgages is then developed based upon the generalized default risk models of Jackson and Kaserman [1980] and Vandell [1981]. The model is then examined for its ability to successfully handle a variety of situations and used to test the validity of traditional ratio analysis "rules-of-thumb" employed in commercial lending. Ratio tests are found generally to be inconsistent with an objective of constraining default risk below some maximum. Finally, a modified ratio analysis consistent with the model and with a constrained default risk strategy is introduced.     

A process (re)turn?: Path dependencies,institutions and performance management in Swedish central government

Recent central government reforms have signalled a transition away from output-based governance and control to a more citizen-orientated and outcome-focused performance management ethos. Prior research suggests that this may give rise to institutional inconsistencies related to conflicting performance management logics. In this paper, we argue that rather than resulting in growing pre-occupation with outcomes and effectiveness, the emerging reform agenda may somewhat paradoxically reinforce managerial concerns with the operating processes underpinning public service delivery. Drawing on policy studies and management accounting research informed by new institutional sociology, we theorise these developments by invoking the notion of path dependency. We provide an empirical illustration based on field work in Swedish central government and adopt a multi-level approach in examining the evolution of performance management practices. While evidence of strongly constraining path dependencies is found at the overall policy level a case study in the Swedish Tax Agency shows that these may also embody an element of flexibility such that the meaning of inconsistent performance management logics is re-constructed over time. This illustrates how individual government agencies may link outcomes to operating process concerns and manage implementation problems related to conflicting and uncoordinated reform initiatives.     

Defining and classifying ecosystem services for decision making

The concept of ecosystems services has become an important model for linking the functioning of ecosystems to human welfare. Understanding this link is critical for a wide-range of decision-making contexts. While there have been several attempts to come up with a classification scheme for ecosystem services, there has not been an agreed upon, meaningful and consistent definition for ecosystem services. In this paper we offer a definition of ecosystem services that is likely to be operational for ecosystem service research and several classification schemes. We argue that any attempt at classifying ecosystem services should be based on both the characteristics of the ecosystems of interest and a decision context for which the concept of ecosystem services is being mobilized. Because of this there is not one classification scheme that will be adequate for the many contexts in which ecosystem service research may be utilized. We discuss several examples of how classification schemes will be a function of both ecosystem and ecosystem service characteristics and the decision-making context.     

Weak complementarity and production

This paper describes how weak complementarity, a common assumption to characterize consumer preferences for recovering measures of willingness to pay for nonmarketed environmental resources, can be used to evaluate the effects of pollution that may affect profits or costs. In such cases, pollution serves as an externality imposed by third parties on production activities.     

Day Trader Behavior and Performance: Evidence from Taiwan Futures Market

By using a unique data from the Taiwan futures market to identify each trader’s trading records and focusing on the high-frequency day traders who trade at least 90 days over the sample year, this study closely examines their behaviors and performance. Day traders’ performances are “risk-adjusted” and analyzed to identify behavioral biases and the resulting impact on performance. There is no evidence found that trading too much is detrimental to investment performance. The high-frequency day traders are more aware of the danger of behavioral biases and are as a result less prone to the disposition effect. Contrary to expectations, day traders in my study are shown to be non-loss averse. Most of our sample except for the highest performance quintile follow a momentum strategy.     

Comparing schools in the U.K. and New Zealand: individualizing and socializing accountabilities and some implications for management control

This paper contrasts educational reforms in New Zealand and the U.K. exploring the role of accountability in processes of management control. The paper focuses on the use of performance measurement in schools. Performance evaluation in the U.K. is, arguably, individualized, in New Zealand an organizational focus is retained The paper will seek to provide an account of the way that individuals have been called to account for their performance (Townley, 1996). Roberts' (1996) discussion of individualizing and socializing accountability is central because of its key claim that some forms of organizational accountability provide a separation of the strategic and moral consequences of action. This is seen as potentially damaging as it may free instrumental action from any form of ethical constraint, equally it may undermine any potential for collective action. In exploring this dimension we will examine the technologies of both financial accounting and management accounting which promote particular approaches to performance evaluation, accountability and control. Our argument raises questions as to the relevance of management accounting as a tool of control and whilst recognizing that financial accounting is also limited suggests that it is worth reconsidering its role in the context of a broader approach to performance evaluation.@e$g0     

Interactions Between Organizational Culture,Trustworthiness, and Mechanisms for Inter‐Project Knowledge Sharing

This research used a multiple‐case study approach to empirically investigate the complex relationship between factors influencing inter‐project knowledge sharing—trustworthiness, organizational culture, and knowledge‐sharing mechanisms. Adopting a competing values framework, we found evidence of patterns existing between the type of culture, on the project management unit level, and project managers’ perceptions of valuing trustworthy behaviors and the way they share knowledge, on the individual level. We also found evidence for mutually reinforcing the effect of trust and clan culture, which shape tacit knowledge‐sharing behaviors.     

China's Interest Rate Pass‐through to Commercial Banks Before and After Interest Rate Liberalisation

On 23 October 2015, the People's Bank of China (PBoC) completed the process of interest rate liberalisation. This study examines China's interest rate pass‐through to the lending rate of commercial banks before and after interest rate liberalisation. Based on data from Q3, 2007 to Q2, 2016, the study shows that the interest rate pass‐through from policy rate to lending rate, which was effective before October 2015, lost effectiveness thereafter. PBoC interventions, the ‘Impossible Trinity’ theory and institutional factors may contribute to this ineffectiveness of the policy rate pass‐through, which may also be related to the higher premium for risk required by banks and to the worsening of their financial condition. The study also offers policy advice in response to the declining effectiveness of China's interest rate pass‐through.     

Finite sample bias of the least squares estimator in an AR(p) model: estimation,inference, simulation and examples

This paper shows that the first order bias of least squares estimators of the coefficients of an AR(p) model is important for ‘typical’ macroeconomic time series and proposes a simple to apply method of bias reduction. Biases in individual coefficients often cumulate in the sum with far-reaching consequences for the cumulative impulse response function. This function, being nonlinear in the underlying coefficients, is particularly sensitive to biases when, as is often the case, the shocks are long-lived. Simulations and examples demonstrate some of the magnitudes involved.     

Using household surveys to implement field experiments: the willingness to donate to food banks

This paper demonstrates that it is possible to jointly produce household surveys and field experiments by incorporating field experiments into the structure of the financial incentives used to enhance response rates. We use the opportunity to donate the financial incentive to a food bank to illustrate how the strategy would work.