密歇根州立大学——新产品：提早预告还是惊喜揭幕？

苹果电脑CEO斯蒂夫·乔布斯每年一月都会在旧金山莫斯克尼会议中心(MosconeCenter)举行的麦克世界产品博览会上亮相做主题演讲。行业的专家学者     

Economic analysis of the introduction of the MVNO system and its major implications for optimal policy decisions in Korea

This study analyzes the anticipated economic effects arising from the introduction of the mobile virtual network operator (MVNO) system in the mobile communications service market. For the analysis, actual data (or estimated data)—such as price elasticity, the number of subscribers, traffic volume, rate, and access charge—were combined with an assumption about a competition scenario in the future market. Based on this analysis, consumer surplus, and change in the service provider's profits were estimated according to the type of policy that may be adopted for the MVNO system by the regulator. The results of the analysis indicate that consumer surplus appears to increase largely because of the reduction of the mobile service rate by the promotion of “service-based competition,” which occurs upon adoption of an MVNO policy in the mobile communication service market. Moreover, the introduction of an MVNO system into the mobile communication market seems to be socially beneficial regardless of policy type if access charges are set reasonably by a cost-plus or retail-minus method. In particular, in order to make sense of the introduction of a special MVNO, whether by the cost-plus method or the retail-minus method, the correct discount rate must be used in setting an access charge between the special MVNO and the significant market power (SMP) mobile network operator (MNO).     

Evidence of an asymmetry in the relationship between volatility and autocorrelation

This paper focuses on the general determinants of autocorrelation and the relationship between autocorrelation and volatility in particular. Using UK stock market index and individual stock price data, a multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (M-GARCH) model is used to generate estimates of conditional autocorrelation. The covariance equation of this model is modified to include the potential determinants of autocorrelation including volatility, which is proxied using the time series of filtered probabilities of a Markov regime switching model. Consistent with the previous literature, this paper documents a negative relationship between volatility and autocorrelation. The results suggest that an asymmetry exists in this relationship which is attributed to the constraints placed on short selling.     

Adjusting Choice Models to Better Predict Market Behavior

The emergence of Bayesian methodology has facilitated respondent-level conjoint models, and deriving utilities from choice experiments has become very popular among those modeling product line decisions or new product introductions. This review begins with a paradox of why experimental choices should mirror market behavior despite clear differences in content, structure and motivation. It then addresses ways to design the choice tasks so that they are more likely to reflect market choices. Finally, it examines ways to model the results of the choice experiments to better mirror both underlying decision processes and potential market choices. Co-chairs. Author order is alphabetical.     

The impact of M&A and joint ventures on the value of IT and non-IT firms

This paper aims to study and provide empirical evidence on the impact of mergers and acquisitions (M&A) and joint ventures on the value of IT and non-IT firms. Using the event study methodology, we investigate the effect of such strategic alliance announcements on firm value in a sample of 170 firms. The results show that such strategic alliance announcements create significant gains in firm value. When the sample is divided into IT and non-IT firms, we find stronger support for positive impact on gains in firm value among non-IT firms than among IT firms. We also find that the smaller strategic alliance partners perform better than their larger partners. However, we fail to find any significant difference in impact on firm value between merger/acquisition and joint venture announcements. This work was supported by the research fund of Hanyang University (HY-2004). JEL Classification L1 · G14 · G34     

Net Asset Value Discounts for Asian-Pacific Real Estate Companies: Long-Run Relationships and Short-Term Dynamics

This study investigates the time series behavior of real estate company net asset value discount/premium (NAVDISC) in eight Asian-Pacific securitized real estate markets from 1995 to 2003. We postulate that if there is a stable NAVDISC for real estate companies in the long-run, then there should be a long-run cointegrating relation between their stock prices (Ps) and net asset values (NAVs). Employing panel data cointegration econometrics that comprises three approaches; panel unit root test, heterogeneous panel cointegration test and dynamic panel error-correction modeling (ECM), we find that long run NAVDISCs persist in individual Asian-Pacific securitized real estate markets and the regional market. All the NAVDISCs exhibit mean reversion and that the respective disequilibrium errors fluctuate around the mean values. Moreover, NAV is an important factor that statistically explains the price variations in real estate stock prices regardless of their speed of mean-reversion in the NAV discount /premium.     

Determinants of technology licensing: the case of licensors

This paper empirically analyzes the behavior of technology licensors using a large dataset of US‐traded companies. The stock of technological knowledge of the licensor, this company's prior exposure to licensing, the rate of growth of its primary sector, the strength of IPR protection, and the nature of the technology are found to be important determinants of the propensity to sell technology through nonexclusive licenses. Smaller firms in industries with ‘simpler’ technologies tend to sell technology through exclusive licenses more than others. In contrast, larger firms in industries dealing with more ‘complex’ technologies engage relatively more in cross licensing. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Hybrid knowledge integration using the fuzzy genetic algorithm: prediction of the Korea stock price index

This paper proposes the hybrid knowledge integration mechanism using the fuzzy genetic algorithm for the optimized integration of knowledge from several sources such as machine knowledge, expert knowledge and user knowledge. This mechanism is applied to the prediction of the Korea stock price index. Machine knowledge is generated by applying neural networks to technical indicators, while expert knowledge and user knowledge are generated from the evaluations of external factors that affect the stock market. Cooperative knowledge is generated from the weighted sum of these sources using a genetic algorithm. Experimental results show that the hybrid mechanism can provide more accurate and less ambiguous results. It means that this mechanism is useful in integrating knowledge from multiple sources for an unstructured environment such as the stock market. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.