Time-varying integration,interdependence and contagion

Bekaert et al. (2005) define contagion as “correlation over and above what one would expect from economic fundamentals”. Based on a two-factor asset pricing specification to model fundamentally-driven linkages between markets, they define contagion as correlation among the model residuals, and develop a corresponding test procedure. In this paper, we investigate to what extent conclusions from this contagion test depend upon the specification of the time-varying factor exposures. We develop a two-factor model with global and regional market shocks as factors. We make the global and regional market exposures conditional upon both a latent regime variable and three structural instruments, and find that, for a set of 14 European countries, this model outperforms more restricted versions. The structurally-driven increase in global (regional) market exposures and correlations suggest that market integration has increased substantially over the last three decades. Using our optimal model, we do not find evidence that further integration has come at the cost of contagion. We do find evidence for contagion, however, when more restricted versions of the factor specifications are used. We conclude that the specification of the global and regional market exposures is an important issue in any test for contagion.     

International Trends in Income Inequality and Social Policy

In most OECD-countries income inequality has increased during the last two decades. In this paper, we investigate whether changes in the overall distribution of income can be attributed to social policy measures. For most (but not all) countries we find a possible relationship between changing welfare state policies (as measured by expenditure ratios and replacement rates) and changing income inequality. Especially the United Kingdom and the Netherlands combined an above-average rise in inequality with a reduction in the generosity of the welfare system.A more elaborate budget incidence analysis for the Netherlands indicates that in the period 1981–1997 inequality of disposable household income increased sharply. The two main forces behind this phenomenon were a more unequal distribution of market incomes and changes in social transfers. Fundamental social security reforms in the Netherlands indeed seem to have made the income distribution less equal. However, income inequality in the Netherlands is still below the OECD average at the end of the observed period.     

Boorstin's consumption community concept: A tale of two countries

The concept of consumption community, first proposed by historian Daniel Boorstin, claims that in the modern era of high mobility, people look not only to neighborhood as a basis for feelings of community but also to communality of consumption behavior (e.g., drinking the same brand of beer). The idea was tested cross-nationally by administering a newly devised psychological sense of community (PSC) scale to more than 100 adult respondents in Belgium and a like number in the U.S. The findings support Boorstin in that for both national samples, PSC values for consumption items were generally positive and consistent with social science theoretical expectations. Implications of the study findings are discussed for theory and social policy.

---

Zusammenfassung Das Konzept der Konsumgemeinschaft von Boorstin: Eine Geschichte von zwei Ländern. Das Konzept der Konsumgemeinschaft, erstmals durch den Historiker Daniel Boorstin vorgestellt, behauptet, da\ im heutigen Zeitalter hoher Mobilität der Einzelne sein Gemeinschaftsgefühl nicht nur durch seine Beziehung aus der direkten Nachbarschaft bezieht, sondern auch aus der Gemeinsamkeit bestimmter Konsumverhaltensweisen (z. B. das Trinken derselben Biermarke). Diese Idee wurde empirisch geprüft durch eine ländervergleichende Untersuchung, in der eine neu entwickelte psychologische Skala für den Gemeinschaftssinn bei jeweils einer Stichprobe von mehr als 100 erwachsenen Personen in Belgien und in den USA angewendet wurde. Die Ergebnisse stützen Boorstin insofern, als beide Länderstichproben zu Skalenwerten führen, die mit den theoretischen sozialwirtschaftlichen Erwartungen übereinstimmen.

---

---

Koen De Vos is a Research Assistant at the same institution.     

Should the Central and Eastern European Accession Countries Adopt the EURO Before or After Accession?

I analyse the option of unilateral euroisation for Central and Eastern Europe. The thorny questions of losing seigniorage and losing the lender of last resort are explicitly addressed. It is found that the option of unilateral euroisation might be quite inviting for some countries. This is certainly the case if one takes into account the difficulties thrown up by the Maastricht–criteria. It is argued that unilateral euroisation provides an elegant way out of the catch of the official EMU-accession path. The EU has, however, expressed explicitly its enmity against euroisation. I think this is a policy error. It should be at least a genuine policy option for all countries concerned. At best the EU should stimulate euroisation by embedding it in a broader and more embracing framework that would support integration and ultimately accession to the EU of the whole of Central and Eastern Europe.     

The challenge of using standard contracts in public–private partnerships

A call for an increased use of standard contracts in public–private partnerships (PPPs) for infrastructure development is noticeable in practice. These contracts are expected to simplify and improve procurement by creating opportunities for learning, lower transaction costs, and better competition. This paper delineates standard contracts in PPP as a new venue for research and unfolds their potential impact. Here lies an important challenge since the benefits of standardization are not as straightforward as they look at first sight, particularly when taking into account the tension between the powerful, control-oriented role of contracting authorities and the need for contingent, informal contracting.     

Elementary multivariate rearrangements and stochastic dominance on a Fréchet class

A Fréchet class collects all multivariate joint distribution functions that have the same marginals. Members of a Fréchet class only differ with respect to the interdependence between their marginals. In this paper, I study orders of interdependence on a Fréchet class using two multivariate generalizations of the bivariate rearrangement proposed by Epstein and Tanny (1980) [4] and Tchen (1980) [16]. I show how these multivariate rearrangements are underlying multivariate first order stochastic dominance in terms of the joint distribution function and the survival function. A combination of both rearrangements is shown to be equivalent to the concordance order proposed by Joe (1990) [9].