Modeling Marketing Dynamics by Time Series Econometrics

This paper argues that time-series econometrics provides valuable tools and opens exciting research opportunities to marketing researchers. It allows marketing researchers to advance traditional modeling and estimation approaches by incorporating dynamic processes to answer new important research questions. The authors discuss the challenges facing time-series modelers in marketing, provide an overview of recent methodological developments and several applications, and highlight fruitful areas for future research. This discussion is based on the First Annual Conference on Modeling Marketing Dynamics by Time Series Econometrics at the Tuck School of Business at Dartmouth, Hanover, New Hampshire, USA on September 16–17, 2004.Insights from the First Annual Conference, Tuck School of Business at DartmouthThis revised version was published online in May 2005 with a corrected cover date.     

Concurrent learning: How firms develop multiple dynamic capabilities in parallel

Much is known about the importance of dynamic capabilities. Yet, surprisingly little is known about how multiple dynamic capabilities might be developed in parallel, since most existing work explores a particular dynamic capability in isolation. Using rich quantitative and qualitative data on Dow Chemical's acquisitions, joint ventures, and divestitures over the past 20 years, we seek to address this gap. Besides contributing by adding fresh insights about managing growth and the utility of distributed practice, and by shedding light on positive and negative experience transfer, our core contribution is an emergent theoretical framework that develops the concept of “concurrent learning. ” Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Narrow and scientific replication of ‘The slave trade and the origins of mistrust in Africa'

Nunn and Wantchekon (2011) argue that slave trades led to a culture of mistrust in Africa. They regress self‐reported trust from the 2005 Afrobarometer surveys on ethnicity‐specific historic slave exports. Individuals from ethnic groups that experienced high levels of slave exports are less trusting. Causality is demonstrated by instrumenting slave exports using the historic distance of each ethnic group to the coast. Our narrow replication yields identical results. The scientific replication repeats the analysis with Afrobarometer survey data from 2008, which includes two new countries and more ethnic groups. Our replication confirms the results of Nunn and Wantchekon. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Optimal modularity: a demonstration of the evolutionary advantage of modular architectures

Modularity is an important concept in evolutionary theorizing but lack of a consistent definition renders study difficult. Using the generalized NK-model of fitness landscapes, we differentiate modularity from decomposability. Modular and decomposable systems are both composed of subsystems, but in the former, these subsystems are connected via interface standards, while in the latter, subsystems are completely isolated. We derive the optimal level of modularity, which minimizes the time required to globally optimize a system, both for the case of two-layered systems and for the general case of multi-layered hierarchical systems containing modules within modules. This derivation supports the hypothesis of modularity as a mechanism to increase the speed of evolution. Our formal definition clarifies the concept of modularity and provides a framework and an analytical baseline for further research.     

Same place,same knowledge – same people? The geography of non-patent citations in Dutch polymer patents

It has long been argued that geographic co-location supports knowledge spillovers. More recently, this argument has been challenged by showing that knowledge spillovers mainly flow through social networks, which may or may not be localized at various geographic scales. We further scrutinize the conjecture of geographically bounded knowledge spillovers by focusing on knowledge flows between academia and industry. Looking into citations to non-patent literature (NPL) in 2385 Dutch polymer patents, we find that citation lags are shorter on average if Dutch rather than foreign NPLs are cited. However, when excluding individual and organizational self-citations, geographically proximate NPLs no longer diffuse faster than foreign NPLs. This suggests that knowledge is not ‘in the air’ but transferred by mobile individuals and/or direct university–industry collaboration. Our findings moreover suggest an important role of international conferences in the diffusion of recent scientific knowledge.     

A complex systems methodology to transition management

There is a general sense of urgency that major technological transitions are required for sustainable development. Such transitions are best perceived as involving multiple transition steps along a transition path. Due to the path dependent and irreversible nature of innovation in complex technologies, an initial transition step along some preferred path may cut off paths that later may turn out to be more desirable. For these reasons, initial transition steps should allow for future flexibility, where we define flexibility as robustness regarding changing evidence and changing preferences. We propose a technology assessment methodology based on rugged fitness landscapes, which identifies the flexibility of initial transition steps in complex technologies. We illustrate our methodology by an empirical application to 2,646 possible future car systems.

Young Adolescents and Advertising on Social Network Games: A Structural Equation Model of Perceived Parental Media Mediation,Advertising Literacy,and Behavioral Intention

This study tested a model in which perceived parental media mediation in social network games (SNGs) was related to adolescents' conceptual and attitudinal advertising literacies, both of which were in turn related to purchase request intention. The 780 participants, aged between 10 and 14 years, watched a video clip of SNG Habbo that included a commercial message and then completed a questionnaire. Perceived autonomy-supportive restrictive media mediation was found to be positively associated with understanding selling intention. Perceived autonomy-supportive active media mediation was positively related to understanding persuasive intention. Understanding persuasive intention was positively related to purchase request intention.     

Leisure and Social Capital: An Analysis of Types of Company and Activities

The relation between leisure activities and social capital is examined in this paper. The focus is on two dimensions: the company in which the activities were performed (household members versus friends and acquaintances) and the nature of the activities (productive versus consumptive). Data are employed from a time-use survey conducted in the United Kingdom in 2000. Productive activities are positively related to the social capital indicators of civic engagement and helping, while consumptive activities are not. The type of activity matters more than the type of company. Leisure activities especially further people's social capital among groups that are already gifted with high levels of civic engagement and helping.     

Common stories of reintroduction: A discourse analysis of documents supporting animal reintroductions to Scotland

Political decisions on environmental issues are increasingly required to be ‘knowledge based’, which has led to a wealth of (scientific) expert documents that aim to inform decision-making. However, the roles of rhetoric and argumentation in those documents have received relatively little scientific attention. We studied 111 expert documents in support of reintroductions to Scotland and identified the elements that constituted the discourses of white-tailed eagle, beaver and lynx. Similar building blocks (so-called storylines) were found in all three debates. The pro-reintroduction discourse as a whole bore resemblance with other contemporary environmental management discourses: In what could be termed ‘win-win logic’, positive storylines were combined to point at the necessity of a management intervention, in our case a reintroduction. Yet, additional mechanisms were also at work which suggests that downplaying negatives can be as important as dwelling on positives. Crucially, we found that the Scottish pro-reintroduction discourse might have become increasingly ‘reflexive’ in terms of its rhetoric and argumentation. The latter development may have major implications for political decision-making. A more critical use of rhetoric and argumentation in expert documentation is needed to achieve environmental political decision-making that is open to any possible outcome of deliberation (including non-reintroduction).