The Effect of Separation Bonuses on Voluntary Quits: Evidence from the Military's Downsizing

This paper analyzes the decision of mid-career personnel to voluntarily leave the U.S. military in response to a financial incentive program. A model of the separation decision is tested using data on Navy and Air Force enlisted personnel who were targeted for the buyout in 1992. Two alternative estimates are provided, one from a fixed effects model and one from a structural, annualized cost of leaving model. Our basic results indicate the financial incentive had a modest effect in inducing additional quits. The impact of the separation bonus, however, was much larger for occupations facing a threat of involuntary layoff.     

Bond immunization for additive interest rate shocks

This paper explores bond immunization for additive term structure models. This class of term structures contains many models that are commonly used in the duration and immunization literature. We establish the necessary and sufficient conditions for immunization and prove the existence of a bond portfolio that satisfies the immunization condition. Based upon the immunization condition, we develop a general definition of duration that applies to any additives term structure model.     

Professional tensions in science and technology: the case of the Colleges of Advanced Technology

Two possible patterns for the organization of advanced technological education can be detected in Britain since 1945. The dominant assumption links training closely to fundamental advances in the sciences, and centralizes teaching at a small number of specialist institutions. The influence of such a policy is seen in the decisions which limited the numbers of Colleges of Advanced Technology in 1956, and in the continuing pressure from science advisory circles for the establishment of a few high-level training centres. The alternative pattern seeks to respond to the diverse range of industrial demands at local level in a decentralized system of technological training whose goals and standards are readily influenced by the technical and manpower demands of neighbouring industry. Neglect of this alternative can be explained from persistent trends in British professional organization, but the economic consequences may well be momentous.     

Forecasting as an aid to R & D decision making in the nuclear power field

Abstract The pay-off from a new power system does not begin to accrue until many years after the initial research; and perhaps not until 10 years or more after major development programmes are launched. The ensuing benefit to the community in terms of reduced power costs may be spread over 30 to 40 years—combining the lifetime of the stations with the period over which they might be installed. Ideally therefore, the Atomic Energy Authority would like to have accurate forecasts of electricity demand and its characteristics in terms of load factors, etc., 30 to 40 years ahead. This paper describes attempts by the Authority to forecast electricity requirements at and beyond the end of the century as a background to their consideration of the relative merits of alternative future nuclear power systems and the distribution of research effort between them.
The study was conducted between 1969 and 1971. The danger of the Middle East countries restricting oil supplies and raising prices was foreseen but in a less acute form and later than has actually occurred. The recent developments are likely to lead to pauses in economic growth followed by growth at lower rates than otherwise. Where forecasts in this article are given in the form of ranges, the lower bounds of the range are likely to apply—at least in the short and medium term.