Escaping Nash Inflation

An ordinary differential equation (ODE) gives the mean dynamics that govern the convergence to self-confirming equilibria of self-referential systems under discounted least squares learning. Another ODE governs escape dynamics that recurrently propel away from a self-confirming equilibrium. In a model with a unique self-confirming equilibrium, the escape dynamics make the government discover too strong a version of the natural rate hypothesis. The escape route dynamics cause recurrent outcomes close to the Ramsey (commitment) inflation rate in a model with an adaptive government.
"If an unlikely event occurs, it is very likely to occur in the most likely way."
Michael Harrison     

The CEO and the external environment

This study confirms other studies and public choice microeconomic theory: CEOs spend more time on issues external to their firms in today's volatile business environment.     

An estimate of black gross job losses due to reduced defense expenditures

The reduction in defense expenditures, due to the end of the cold war, is estimated to have a disproportionately heavy impact on black gross job losses. Several solutions are discussed with the hope that if they are successful, the negative social behavior that is often associated with increased joblessness can be ameliorated.