Fiscal Policy in Oil‐exporting Countries: The Roles of Oil Funds and Institutional Quality

Oil‐exporting countries face challenges in the conduct of fiscal policy owing to volatile oil revenues, especially in countries with weak institutions. Many oil exporters have established oil funds to delink government expenditure from oil revenues; however, their effectiveness remains unresolved. This paper examines the roles of oil funds and institutional quality in reducing fiscal procyclicality and macroeconomic volatility in 42 oil‐exporting countries from 1960 to 2014 using panel vector autoregression techniques. The results show that oil funds are effective in reducing fiscal procyclicality in countries with high institutional quality. There is also a reduction in the procyclical bias in those with low institutional quality but the statistical evidence is weak. Nevertheless, oil funds are associated with reduced volatility of government consumption and the real exchange rate in countries with low institutional quality. These findings give credence to the macroeconomic stabilization role of oil funds but also reinforce the importance of good institutions.     

A causal analysis of the impact of information systems and supply chain management practices on operational performance: Evidence from manufacturing SMEs in Turkey

This study has empirically tested a framework identifying the causal links among supply chain management (SCM) and information systems (IS) practices, SCM–IS related inhibiting factors and operational performance based on a sample of 203 manufacturing SMEs operating in the manufacture of fabricated metal products and general purpose machinery within the greater metropolitan area of Istanbul in Turkey. Moderating effect of SCM and IS related enabling factors on the above mentioned relationships is also investigated in this study. Tests of hypotheses indicate that both SCM and IS practices positively and significantly influence the operational performance of sample firms. The results of the structural model also indicate a strong support for negative relationships between SCM–IS related inhibitors and the implementation levels of both SCM and IS practices. Similarly, a strong support was found for the hypothesized negative relationship between SCM–IS inhibitors and operational performance of SMEs. Finally, we verified the moderating impact of SCM–IS enablers on the link between SCM practices and operational performance. A similar moderating impact was also found with regard to the relationship between IS practices and operational performance.     

Business processes inter-operation for supply network co-ordination

In a global supply network, the overall improvement of operational efficiency and customer satisfaction can only be achieved through greater co-ordination and collaboration of all the network members. However, full benefits of close co-operation within a global supply network can only be achieved when the business processes of the individual companies can inter-operate. Currently available commercial solutions are inadequate in supporting full network co-ordination in terms of business process changes and technical arrangements. This paper proposes a system that aims to improve the co-ordination of production planning and control activities across the supply network. To achieve this, it is important to develop new business processes and principles for company collaboration and corresponding information systems. This process starts from the identification of business and system requirements, which underlie the general business solutions for network co-ordination, developing the guiding design principles and subsequent process design and system implementation.     

INEFFICIENT LOCK‐IN AND SUBSIDY COMPETITION*

This article studies a subsidy game among two asymmetric regions in a new trade model. Capital can freely move among regions, but capital rewards are repatriated to the region of residence. The activity of the modern sector is associated with positive spillovers. We study subsidy competition, starting from an equilibrium where the industry core is inefficiently locked in to the smaller region. When regions weigh workers’ and capitalists’ welfare equally, subsidy competition results in a relocation of industry to the larger region, restoring an efficient allocation. When workers’ welfare is weighted more heavily, the smaller (core) region may pay subsidies that are high enough to prevent a relocation of industry.     

韩国农业国际竞争力分析

本文从生产率、价格、贸易成果三个方面对韩国农业竞争力进行了分析。结果显示,虽然韩国农业土地生产率相当高,但价格竞争力很弱。通过对27种主要农产品进行价格比较,发现韩国农产品价格比中国农产品价格平均高6.4倍,这意味着韩中两国之间如果达成自由贸易协定,中国农产品对韩国出口的可能性会大大提高。通过对贸易成果的分析,本文发现,与其他国家的贸易相比,韩中两国之间的农产品贸易存在互补性,但因价差太大,很难找到具体的互补或合作的领域。     

A neural network approach to the prediction of going concern status

The assessment of a firm's going concern status is not an easy task. To assist auditors, going concern prediction models based on statistical methods such as multiple discriminant analysis and logit/probit analysis have been explored with some success. This study attempts to look at a different and more recent approach—neural networks. In particular, a neural network model of the feedforward, backpropagation type was constructed to predict a firm's going concern status from six financial ratios, using a data set containing 165 non-going concerns and 165 matched going concerns. On an evenly distributed hold-out sample, the trained network model correctly predicted all 30 test cases. The results suggest that neural networks can be a promising avenue of research and application in the going concern area.     

跨越鸿沟的五大应对之策

那些对社会政治问题于企业之重要性始终心存疑问的管理者在看过《麦肯锡季刊》对这一问题所做的引人注目的民意调查后，一定会疑云顿消。     

The Political Economy of Volatility Dynamics in the Hong Kong Stock Market

Despite its obvious importance, little empirical research has examined the impact of political risk on stock market volatility. This paper uses data on the Hong Kong stock market over a long sample period to investigate whether political risk has induced regime shifts in stock market volatility. Regime shifts are modelled via a Markov switching EGARCH model that allows for regime-dependent volatility asymmetry. We find strong evidence of regime shifts in conditional volatility as well as significant volatility asymmetry in high volatility periods. Major political uncertainties were reflected in a switch to the high-volatility regime. However, contrary to popular perceptions, we find no evidence that the Hong Kong stock market has become persistently more volatile since the start of Sino-British political negotiations in 1982.     

Testing for deliberate underpricing in the IPO premarket: a stochastic frontier approach

We reevaluate the IPO underpricing phenomenon using the stochasticfrontier methodology. The advantage of the stochastic frontieris that it can be used to measure the level of deliberate underpricingin the premarket without using after-market information. Thisis accomplished through the estimation of a systematic one-sidederror term that measures 'inefficiency' or the difference betweenthe maximum predicted offer price and the actual offer price.Data for the analysis are comprised of 1,035 IPOs of commonstock issued by firm commitment between 1975 and 1984. IPOsappear to be deliberately underpriced in the premarket in bothhot-market and nonhot-market periods. Moreover, the determinantsof the maximum IPO price have different effects in the two timeperiods.     

Bank lending and real estate in Asia: market optimism and asset bubbles

This paper investigates the Asian real estate price run-up and collapse in the 1990s. We identify financial intermediaries’ underpricing of the put option imbedded in non-recourse mortgage loans as a potential cause for the observed price behavior. This underpricing is due to behavioral causes (lender optimism and disaster myopia) and/or rational response of lenders to market incentives (agency conflicts, deposit insurance, or limited liability of bank shareholders). The empirical evidence suggests that underpricing occurred in Thailand, Malaysia, and Indonesia. Consequently, these countries experienced a more severe market crash than Hong Kong and Singapore, where underpricing was kept under control by strong government intervention and/or more appropriate incentive mechanisms.