Exchange Rate Movements and Employment Growth: An OCA Assessment of the CEE Economies

According to the traditional optimum currency area approach, not much will be lost from a very hard peg to a currency union if there has been little reason for variations in the exchange rate in the past. This paper takes a different approach and highlights the fact that high exchange rate volatility may also signal high costs for labor markets. The impact of exchange rate volatility on labor markets in the CEECs is analyzed, revealing that volatility vis-à-vis the euro significantly lowers employment growth. Hence, eliminating exchange rate volatility could be considered a substitute for removing employment protection legislation.     

An empirical approach to distributive justice

This paper starts from the idea that it would be interesting to complement the deductive reasoning about economic justice with an empirical approach which tries to describe and interpret the actual value judgements held by the economic agents. We present results from a pilot study with 180 subjects. Factor analysis indicates that it makes sense to work with desert and compensation criteria, as most economists and philosophers do. We then illustrate that it is possible to operationalise equity judgements, estimating for each subject separately an equation describing his perception of the equitable compensatory income variation. We use the factor analysis results to construct a ‘compensation’ and a ‘desert’ index. All coefficients can be nicely interpreted and interesting patterns of interindividual variation emerge.     

Measuring the contribution of durable goods to the welfare cost of inflation

In this paper, we measure the contribution of durable goods to the welfare cost of inflation, in the context of an endogenous growth model with durable and nondurable goods, where purchases of the latter require only a partial cash payment compared with the former. Unlike existing measures, our proposed welfare measure is computationally efficient and relatively easy to implement.We find that durability adds a significant component to the welfare costs of inflation.     

On the interaction between forecasting and stock control: The case of non-stationary demand

The effect of using estimated (forecast) demand parameters on the performance of an inventory control system is an intriguing and important subject. Recent research has been undertaken on this phenomenon assuming stationary demand data. In this paper we extend the research to non-stationary demands, by means of simulation. The case of a periodic order-up-to-level inventory system is considered and the experimental structure allows us to evaluate in a progressive manner the accumulated effect of using the optimal forecasting method, optimal forecast parameters and correct variance expression procedures. The results allow insights to be gained into operational issues and demonstrate the scope for improving stock control systems.     

The Commission's Recommendations on Housing Finance

The Commission proposes radical changes in the structure of institutions supplying residential mortgage funds. By massive broadening of their asset and liability powers, the thrifts are to become quasi-banks. The resulting housing credit gap is to be filled by multipurpose lenders, notably pension funds, and by greater use of mortgage securities backed by conventional as well as FHA and VA loans. For these changes, the Commission relies on the magic of deregulation, initiated partly in the Depository Institutions Act of 1982. A mortgage investment tax credit is proposed to cushion adverse effects on housing, but its adoption is highly unlikely. The Commission's expectations of structural reform through deregulation are overdrawn. Hence, its approach would probably reduce resource allocation to housing. The assertion that the new system would be more efficient is not supported by the meager analysis offered in the Report . Likewise, the claim of greater cyclical stability of mortgage lending remains unsubstantiated. The Commission also recommends curtailment of federal programs supporting the private housing sector: restricting FHA to high-risk loans and phasing down the GNMA guaranty of mortgage securities. But the proposals for FNMA and FHLMC stop short of cutting their umbilical cords of government.     

Productivity growth and the depletion of technological opportunities

Griliches recently observed that the rise in energy and materials prices and the possible exhaustion of the sources of technological progress are the main candidate explanations of the productivity slowdown. The present paper examines these possibilities by studying information on the rate of return to R and D, where the hypothesis of technological exhaustion is most likely to appear. Annual data are used to decipher differences in timing. The evidence does not support technological exhaustion, but instead indicates that even the R and D facet of productivity growth was thrown off by macroeconomic events associated with the oil shocks. These findings support the energy price-macroeconomic disturbance diagnosis of the productivity slowdown.The refereeing process of this paper was handled through E. Appelbaum.     

Unemployment, Factor Substitution and Capital Formation

Abstract. We incorporate a wage-bargaining structure in a dynamic general equilibrium model and show how this feature changes short- and long-run properties of equilibria compared with a perfectly competitive setting. We discuss how employment, capital and income shares respond to wage-setting shocks and show that adjustment dynamics depend decisively on the magnitude of the elasticity of substitution between labour and capital. Values of the elasticity below unity add persistence, tend to preserve stability and lead to empirically plausible adjustment patterns. By contrast, values above unity introduce additional volatility, thereby making steady states potentially unstable.     

Interurban differences in the innovative nature of production

Several authors have suggested that large cities concentrate on innovative commodities and allow the production of more standardized goods to filter down to lower wage smaller cities. This paper provides an empirical test of this hypothesis. The innovativeness of production within a given SMSA is measured by the proportion of professional, technical and kindred workers. Evidence for specific two-digit manufacturing industries indicates that such innovation workers are generally more prevalent in larger cities. Substantial improvements in transportation and communications in recent years have not greatly altered the tendency for professionals to be concentrated in large urban areas.     

Competitive drivers and international plant configuration strategies: a product‐level test

We analyze the determinants of the decision to invest abroad and the choice of spatial configurations of overseas plants for 120 Japanese firms active in 36 well‐defined electronic product markets. We find that key competitive drivers at the firm and industry levels have a critical impact on the choice between alternative international plant configurations. Regional configurations focused on Asia are chosen by firms with weaker competitiveness for products with established manufacturing technologies. Plant configurations focused on the United States and the European Union are chosen by technology‐intensive firms facing competitive threats in foreign markets. Global configurations are chosen by firms with a strong competitive position in the Japanese and world market for their core product businesses and are more common in the case of strong oligopolistic rivalry between Japanese firms. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Disconnected Amid the Networks and Chains: Employee Detachment from Company and Union after Offshoring

Much has been written about the relocation of services jobs away from OECD nations by offshoring. But what happens to those who remain employed at workplaces where offshoring has been carried out? Based on survey and interview data of UK insurance and banking staff, this article explores employees' subjective understandings of the impacts of offshoring. The article brings together literature on Global Commodity Chains and Labour Process Theory, as it expands the focus of research on offshoring from macro/meso discussions of globalization and firm strategy into more micro‐level analysis of employee interpretations of workplace change. The data indicate a collapse in morale and work dignity for UK financial services workers and suggest that offshoring is not associated with a rise in skill levels of surviving jobs. Many staff reported a climate of detachment and cynicism after offshoring. Detachment and disaffection applies to employees' feelings towards their employer and their union, and is discussed as a paradoxical by‐product of the growing incorporation of services work into Global Commodity Chains or Global Production Networks.