Do professional forecasters behave as if they believed in the New Keynesian Phillips Curve for the euro area?

This paper finds that participants in the European Central Bank’s Survey of Professional Forecasters have submitted forecasts that are consistent with a (mostly forward-looking) empirical version of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve for the euro area. The estimation technique takes advantage of the panel nature of the Survey of Professional Forecasters’ dataset to exploit both its time series and cross-section dimensions, and to control for unobservable individual heterogeneity across forecasters. The estimation results suggest that euro-area inflation forecasts have reacted less to unemployment forecasts after the start of the financial crisis but another cost measure (energy inflation) remains significant. This finding is consistent with a flatter Phillips Curve in the euro area after 2007. However, the reasons suggested by the International Monetary Fund for this finding, namely a better anchoring of inflation expectations and increases in structural unemployment do not seem to find support in the survey data. Instead, the expectations for compensation per employee submitted by professional forecasters are consistent with the existence of downward real-wage rigidities in euro-area labour markets.     

Exploring the customer's intention to switch firms: The role of customer‐related antecedents

This study examined the customer‐related antecedents of the customer's intention to switch firms. Customer citizenship behavior was a key element in this study. Scholars have extensively studied the antecedents of customer citizenship behavior. However, the way that customer citizenship behavior relates to other attitudinal variables and the intention to switch has scarcely been analyzed. The proposed hypotheses were verified using partial least squares variance‐based structural equation modeling applied to 947 users of beauty care service firms in five countries. The results suggest that customer citizenship behavior is an antecedent of satisfaction, trust, and attitudinal loyalty. Two of these variables influence customers’ intentions to abandon relationships with the service provider. The implications of these findings enhance managers’ and scholars’ understanding of the determinants of customers’ intentions to switch firms.     

Ponds,Power and Institutions: The Everyday Governance of Accessing Urban Water Bodies in a Small Bengali City

While researchers in the growing field of urban political ecology have given significant attention to the fragmented hydroscape that characterizes access to drinking water in the global South, so far the (re)production of other urban waters and its related power relations have been underexplored. This article seeks to contribute to filling this gap by exploring the everyday negotiations over access to urban water bodies, in particular ponds. These are understood as a composite resource that is simultaneously water, land and public space. This analysis draws on a case study from a small city in West Bengal, India, and is based primarily on data from open interviews with different actors with a stake in urban ponds. The article demonstrates that in a context of ambiguity of the statutory governance regime and fragmented control, the (re)production of the pondscape is embedded within complex relationships of power whereby social marginalization can be offset at least momentarily by local institutions such as neighbourhood clubs and political parties.     

Conceptualizing the Evolution and Future of Advertising

Technology has irreversibly changed the way that firms identify who is more likely to buy, what they are more likely to buy, when they are more likely to buy, why they are likely to buy, and how they are likely to buy, repurchase, and recommend. It is now easier than ever for firms to have a body of evidence in the form of actual insights, as opposed to having mere guestimates, on consumers' apparent intentions to buy. Power dynamics have changed in the marketing climate, and firms have to factor in not only aggressive competitors but also empowered customers with limited attention spans. In such a climate, what lies in the future for advertising? And how can marketing managers make the most of the changing climate and maximize their returns on advertising? How can academics advance research related to maximizing the effectiveness and efficiency of advertising? These are the questions that this article addresses via an integrated framework that expounds all the factors related to customers, firms, technological environment, and data resources, as well as the contextual factors, including product life cycle, customer life cycle, and so on, and their collective impact on advertising strategy, which includes advertising content, media selection, message, and targeting.     

The Effects of Psychobiological Motivational Traits on Memory of In‐Game Advertising Messages

This study examined the influence of psychobiological motivational traits related to individual approach and avoidance tendencies on cognitive processing of in‐game advertising. Participants played a custom‐built video game containing billboard advertisements. After playing the game, participants’ approach, positivity offset (PO), and avoidance, negativity bias (NB), traits were measured using the motivation activation measure (MAM). Recognition and recall memory were greater for high PO and low NB trait individuals. The findings of this study imply that advertising in first‐person‐shooter (FPS) video games may be most effective when targeting individuals with simultaneously high PO and low NB, risk takers, but least effective for those with low PO and high NB, risk avoiders.     

Correlation estimation using components of Japanese candlesticks

Using the wick’s difference from the classical Japanese candlestick representation of daily open, high, low, close prices brings efficiency when estimating the correlation in a bivariate Brownian motion. An interpretation of the correlation estimator given in [Rogers, L.C.G. and Zhou, F., Estimating correlation from high, low, opening and closing prices. Ann. Appl. Probab., 2008, 18(2), 813–823] in the light of wicks’ difference allows us to suggest modifications, which lead to an increased efficiency and robustness over the baseline model. An empirical study of four major financial markets confirms the advantages of the modified estimator.     

Examining bank SEOs: Are offers made by undercapitalized banks different?

Despite extensive monitoring, banking operations are often considered opaque, and despite explicit capital adequacy regulation, banks may have substantial discretion in their financing. Both monitoring and capital regulation have changed substantially over time, with the adoption of FDICIA being one important breakpoint. This article empirically studies seasoned equity offerings (SEOs) by banks to understand how opacity and capital regulation interact to determine the timing of bank SEOs and their market valuation. SEOs both by banks that are undercapitalized relative to regulatory standards and also well-capitalized banks are fully discretionary when it comes to SEOs, even before FDICIA. Both undercapitalized and well-capitalized banks experience similar and significantly negative stock price reactions to SEO announcements, and also have similar prior patterns of insider trading and similar economic drivers of the issuance decision. Moreover, post-SEO abnormal stock returns are similar to benchmark returns for both types of issuers in the long run, suggesting that, contrary to the well-documented evidence for industrial SEOs, investors understand the value implications of bank SEOs upon announcement. The evidence implies that undercapitalized banks' SEOs are more discretionary and that all bank SEOs are less opaque than implied by earlier studies.     

Price and quality components of imports of food products into the UK

This paper analyses the principal factors responsible for the growth in the value of imports of the UK food sector, during the period 1985-90. On the basis of estimates of translog multilateral price indices it assesses the relative contribution of changes in the quality of imported products and factors other than quality to growth in import values of food products. The main conclusion is that growth in quality appears to be the principal reason for the growth in unit values of imports and the trade deficit incurred by the food manufacturing sector.