Participatory prognostics in Germany—developing citizen scenarios for the relationship between biomedicine and the economy in 2014

The rapid development of biomedicine demands a trustworthy, proactive regulatory regime that is able to manage progress with genuine regard for ethical, social and legal concerns. With its recent past of eugenics and euthanasia, Germany is particularly concerned with setting up a fair and transparent approach, able to respond quickly to scientific developments as well as societal concerns. This article reports on the development, implementation and evaluation of a citizen scenario workshop as a tool of participatory prognostics, integrating elements from participatory technology assessment and forecasting. In 7 days of highly structured work and expert support, 24 German participants developed four scenarios on “The Relationship of Biomedicine and the Economy in the Year 2014.” Results and evaluation both show that the process (1) leads to scenarios that provide a useful perspective beyond expert opinion; (2) enriches the public and political discourse; and (3) offers a social learning opportunity appreciated by nonprofessionals and experts alike. We are confident in recommending this technique as a useful addition to existing foresight and horizon scanning activities.     

Community design of a light rail transit-oriented development using casewise visual evaluation (CAVE)

This paper proposes the casewise visual evaluation or CAVE, methodology and discusses its application to the participatory design of a transit-oriented development (TOD) in Louisville, Kentucky. CAVE is a fuzzy logic-based non-linear visual preference modeling system designed to provide design element guidance from composite visual scenarios under conditions of sparse data.The context of application in a low-income urban neighborhood is detailed. An architectural expert's design vocabulary allows model input and output to be structured. A small set of image samples was scored for preference using anonymous electronic polling in distributed neighborhood forums. Using fuzzy set theoretic software a community preference knowledge base (PKB) was built and interrogated. Four critical TOD design dimensions were selected: height, typology, density, and open space type. Preferred TOD design combinations were identified using the PKB and discussed. This project shows that CAVE can provide context-specific guidance for urban designers and that its strengths in effectively devolving design input and capturing local preferences are recognized by the community. The paper highlights the necessity for advanced geovisual analytic methods to be embedded into a structured public involvement (SPI) process.     

The dynamics of business orientation: the case of the Volvo Car Corporation

The traditional marketing literature generally sees the adoption of business orientation either from a static, cross-sectional viewpoint or as a one-way evolutionary or catastrophic process from production to sales to marketing. An examination of the changes in business orientation in the Volvo Car Corporation suggests that the pattern has been rather more cyclical than linear: market-production-market. The rationales of this pattern are analyzed in the context of both the nature of the particular market context and the evidence available. Both the managerial and academic implications are discussed.     

Antecedents and consequences of relationship intention: Implications for transaction and relationship marketing

The terms relationship marketing (RM) and loyalty have been extensively promoted in marketing literature. Advocates of RM and loyalty have argued that RM leads to loyalty and loyalty leads to profitability. However, currently available evidence questions these arguments. We propose a term relationship intention. Relationship intention is willingness of a customer to develop a relationship with a firm while buying a product or a service attributed to a firm, a brand, and a channel. We build a multi-item scale for measuring relationship intention. We propose a framework, wherein we argue that the relationship intention is influenced by the customers' perceived firm equity, perceived brand equity, and perceived channel equity. We propose the consequences of relationship intention as being low cost to serve, price premium, word-of-mouth promotion, and company advertisement. We also argue that relationship intention moderates the association between lifetime duration and profitability. Finally, we discuss the managerial implications of relationship intention in terms of transaction and RM.     

Does the level of experience have an effect on CRM programs? Exploratory research findings

A growing body of academic and practitioner literature has highlighted the differences in definitions and approaches to customer relationship management (CRM), suggested frameworks for successful CRM implementation, and provided evidences of CRM success and failure. Such accumulating wisdom might be expected to imbue practice with knowledge of what works better in CRM and to entail, therefore, an improving experience of CRM over time. To date, however, the effect of experience on CRM implementation has not been discussed in literature. This paper studies CRM from the organisational learning perspective. It provides evidence from empirical research conducted among users (firms), consultants, and suppliers (software vendors) about the effect of experience on CRM. The exploratory research findings of this study draw attention to the extent to which firms deploying CRM are sensitive and responsive to what they might learn from their implementation efforts and establish a platform for future research. The paper suggests the need for the two processes of CRM and organisational learning to move in tandem to be mutually beneficial.     

Improving the Delphi process: Lessons from social psychological research

The Delphi technique was largely developed to avoid the problems of freely interacting groups such as dominant individuals and pressure to conform to the majority view. Our review of the social psychological literature reveals some obstacles to Delphi achieving its full potential relative to other cheaper and easier methods of aggregating judgment. We identify residual normative and informational pressures towards consensus that potentially reduce process gain that might otherwise be achieved. For instance, panelist confidence may act as a signal of status rather than be a valid cue to expertise, whereas consensus appears to have a strong influence on the final outcome that can reduce its accuracy when there are valid minority opinions. We argue that process gain in Delphi must occur through those further from the "truth" changing their opinion more than those closer to the truth, with the general direction of opinion change being towards the truth. For such virtuous opinion change to occur we suggest the need to both facilitate opinion change and provide good cues as to where the truth lies. Research on Judge Advisor Systems shows that people usually do not change their opinion as much as they should, giving too much weight to their own opinion and too little to the views of others—this bias can be reduced by increasing involvement and motivation. In addition, we propose that the best way to provide good cues as to the direction of the truth is to elicit rich reasoning from panelists about the judgment or choice in question, then use this as feedback. We suggest practical ways of focusing and deepening panelists’ consideration and evaluation of such reasoning—such that all proffered opinions are well-evaluated. Additionally, we propose a model of opinion change in Delphi for use as a paradigm for future process-orientated research.     

Kondratieff waves in global invention activity (1900-2008)

Our study has revealed an unusually clear K-wave pattern in the dynamics of the number of patents granted annually in the world per 1 million of the world population. In general we see rather steady increases in the number of patent grants per million during K-wave A-phases ("upswings"), and we observe its rather pronounced decreases during K-wave B-phases ("downswings"). This pattern apparently goes counter to the logic suggested by Kondratieff, Schumpeter and their followers who expected the increases in the invention activities during B-phases and their decreases during A-phases. However, this contradiction is shown to be only apparent. We suggest an explanation that accounts for the detected pattern without contradicting the essence of Kondratieff-Schumpeter theory.     

Exploring social structures and agency in backcasting studies for sustainable development

This paper examines how social structures and agency have been included in backcasting studies for sustainable development. For this purpose an analytical framework was developed, based on what objects of change (whats), measures (hows) and change agents (whos) are included in the scenario, and to which extent these are approached in an explorative way. Through reviewing a number of backcasting studies it was found that these typically are built upon and elaborated with a predominant focus on the questions of what and how physical/technical aspects could change. Social objects of change and explicit representation or analysis of the question of who could change is rarely included in the analysis. This unbalance brings a number of implications. Firstly, not including social structures and agency obstructs developing socio-technically consistent and comprehensive scenarios. Secondly, through not addressing the questions of how to change and change by whom in an explicit and explorative way, social structures and agency become represented only implicitly and/or are maintained according to the status quo.     

Exploring radio frequency identification technology's application in international distribution centers and adoption rate forecasting

Radio Frequency Identification Technology's (RFID) application in the global supply chain has seen increased attention, and international distribution centers (IDC) are now playing a more crucial role in the global supply chain operation. This paper adopts structure equation modeling (SEM) to investigate the impact of three factors mainly based on the technology acceptance model (TAM): perceived usefulness, perceived ease of use, and the social norm on the use intention of an IDC. Empirical results indicate that a revised TAM could explain the RFID acceptance behavior. Perceived ease of use, perceived usefulness, and the social norm are demonstrated to have an effect on RFID acceptance intention. The choice of RFID adoption is also impacted by the supply chain's stakeholders. Factors that affect the adoption intention of an IDC thus include customers and partners' request, government policy, and competitors that have already adopted RFID. Furthermore, the study adopts the binary Logit model based on the stated preference method's data to predict the possible adoption rate of the RFID system in the adoption intention of an IDC. This empirical study shows that significant statistical determinants influencing RFID acceptance are: system purchasing fixed cost, variable cost, and perceived usefulness. Our model also predicts that the penetration of RFID application in Taiwan's international distribution centers could hit the 25% adoption rate. The study provides several managerial implications and suggests future research directions.