Proposition 4, Tax Reduction Mirage: An Exploratory Note on Its Potential Spending and Tax Impacts

Abstract . What would the true government expenditure and tax-burden impacts of California's Proposition 4 likely be if it (or its equivalent) were enacted in all states? What happened to actual state plus local government expenditures per capita over the period FY 1970 - FY 1976 is examined. Next, we examine what would have happened to such expenditures (per capita) if Proposition 4 had been in effect over the same period. Comparing the results reveals that Proposition 4 would have exercised no significant impact over per capita state plus local spending levels. This implies that such legislation would not have resulted in significant tax reductions.     

Tracking urban sprawl: Using spatial data to inform farmland preservation policy

The development of state farmland preservation policies has primarily relied upon results of the Census of Agriculture that is updated every 5 years by the USDA National Agriculture Statistics Service. Questions about the suitability of the Census of Agriculture center on the measures of total farmland and total cropland as reported by agricultural producers. The reliance on these variables fails to distinguish between conversion to developed uses and other fluctuations in the total availability of farmland. This inability to directly measure farmland conversion to developed uses has been shown to influence state level farmland preservation policies. The policies of Illinois and Indiana highlight the disparate approaches, with Illinois pursuing an intensive policy to protect farmland and Indiana choosing to not address farmland preservation at a state level. In order to assess the suitability of the different approaches to farmland preservation policy it is critical to evaluate the Census of Agriculture data used to justify the policies of Illinois and Indiana.     

Adverse Selection and Competing Deposit Insurance Systems in Pre-Depression Texas

In 1910, Texas instituted a unique deposit insurance program for its state chartered banks by providing a choice between two separate plans: the depositors guaranty fund, similar to insurance schemes in several other states, and the depositors bond security system, which required the procurement of a privately issued guarantee of indemnity. While, under most deposit insurance schemes, the incentive to monitor the financial condition of individual banks simply devolves from depositors to regulators, the bond security system established in Texas distinguished itself by attempting to reintroduce market discipline through the indemnity requirement. Using a probit model with heteroscedasticity, we find evidence that the choice of insurance coverage led to risk-sorting among the banks, with relatively conservative and financially secure institutions opting for the comparatively rigorous bond security system. In addition, the bank failure record indicates the risk differentials between banks in the two plans persisted over time and even possibly grew, suggesting the bond security system at least partially avoided the moral hazard incentives associated with the fixed-rate depositors guaranty plan. These findings support the general view that market discipline is effective in banking.     

Bringing the Future Forward: The Effect of Disclosure on the Returns-Earnings Relation

This paper studies how firm disclosure activity affects the relation between current annual stock returns, contemporaneous annual earnings and future earnings. Our results show that firms with relatively more informative disclosures "bring the future forward" so that current returns reflect more future earnings news. We also find that changes in disclosure activity are positively related to changes in the importance of future earnings news for current returns. These results suggest that a firm's disclosure activity reveals credible, relevant information not in current earnings, and that this information is incorporated into the current stock price.     

Incorporating risk in a positive mathematical programming framework: a dual approach

In this study we develop a new methodological proposal to incorporate risk into a farm‐level positive mathematical programming (PMP) model. We estimate simultaneously the farm nonlinear cost function and a farmer‐specific coefficient of absolute risk aversion as well as the resource shadow prices. The model is applied to a sample of representative arable crop farms from the Emilia‐Romagna region in Italy. The estimation results confirm the calibration ability of the model and reveal the values of the individual risk aversion coefficients. We use the model to simulate different scenarios of crop price volatility, in order to explore the potential risk management role of an agri‐environmental scheme.     

Robust portfolio choice with stochastic interest rates

We determine the optimal investment strategy for an ambiguity-averse investor in a setting with stochastic interest rates. The investor has access to stocks, bonds, and a bank account and he is ambiguous about the expected rate of return of both bonds and stocks. The investor can have different levels of ambiguity aversion about the two types of risky assets. We find that it is more important to take model uncertainty about the stock dynamics than model uncertainty about the bond dynamics into account. Furthermore, the investor’s ambiguity increases his hedging demand. Consequently, the bond/stock ratio increases with his ambiguity and implies less extreme positions in the bank account. Altogether, our model yields portfolio allocations which are more in line with what is implementable in practice. Finally, we demonstrate that neglecting model uncertainty implies significant losses for the investor.