The effects of audit partner pre-client and client-specific experience on audit quality and on perceptions of audit quality

We examine the associations between audit partner pre-client and client-specific experience and audit quality using data from Taiwan, where signing audit partner names are disclosed. Using discretionary accruals and interest rate spreads to proxy for audit quality and perceptions of audit quality, respectively, we find that both pre-client and client-specific experience improve audit quality and creditor perceptions of audit quality. We also find that audit partner pre-client experience is positively associated with audit quality early in the engagement, but not when the partner has been with the client for at least five years. Our findings provide evidence consistent with the assumption underlying the Public Company Accounting Oversight Board’s decision to require the disclosure of engagement partner names. They also suggest that pre-client experience cannot completely mitigate the loss of client-specific knowledge when partner or audit firm turnover occurs.     

The Effects of Disclosure and Analyst Regulations on the Relevance of Analyst Characteristics for Explaining Analyst Forecast Accuracy

We posit and find an effect of disclosure and analyst reporting regulations implemented from 2000 through 2003 (including Regulation Fair Disclosure, the Sarbanes‐Oxley Act and the Global Settlement Act) on the importance of analyst and forecast characteristics for analyst forecast accuracy. Following the enactment of these regulations, more experienced analysts and All‐Star analysts do not maintain their superior forecast accuracy, and analysts employed by large brokerage houses perform worse than other analysts. In addition, we find a decrease in the importance of analyst effort, the number of industries and firms followed, days elapsed since the last forecast, and forecast horizon. While the importance of bold upward forecast revisions does not change, bold downward revisions lose their relevance for forecast accuracy after 2003. Finally, we find an increase in the importance of prior forecast accuracy. We find that the importance of these characteristics varies with the precision of publicly available information. Specifically, the decrease in the importance of most analyst and forecast characteristics and the increase in the importance of prior forecast accuracy are greater when the precision of publicly available information is low. Overall, our results suggest that the positive effects of experience, effort, brokerage house size and All‐Star status on forecast accuracy in the pre‐regulation period were because of the information advantages that these analysts enjoyed (rather than their ability to generate private information). In contrast, our results suggest that prior forecast accuracy is related to analysts’ ability to generate private information.     

Are you a good boss--or a great one?

Private moments of doubt and fear come even to managers who have spent years on the job. Any number of events can trigger them: an initiative going poorly, a lukewarm performance review, a daunting new assignment. HBS professor Hill and executive Lineback have long studied the question of how manager grow and advance. Their experience brings them to a simple but troubling observation: Most bosses reach a certain level of proficiency and stay there--short of what they could and should be. Why? Because they stop working on themselves. The authors offer what they call the three imperatives for managers who seek to avoid this stagnation. First, manage yourself--who you are as a person, the beliefs and values that drive your actions, and especially how you connect with others all matter to the people you must influence. Second, manage your network. Effective managers know that they cannot avoid conflict and competition among organizational groups; they build and nurture ongoing relationships. Third, manage your team. Team members need to know what's required of them collectively and individually and what the team's values, norms, and standards are. The authors include a useful assessment tool to help readers get started.     

A technical approach to equity investing in emerging markets

Technical analysis (TA) is used in evaluating its predictive power for the Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) Emerging Market Index (EMI) that reflects 23 emerging market economies’ equity indices. We conclude strong predictive power of technical analysis for the EMI. Given this predictive power of TA, we then investigate whether investors can exploit this predictive power to beat the profitability of the Buy‐and‐Hold strategy considering both risk and transaction costs. Applying Moving Average, Relative Strength Index, Moving Average Convergence Divergence, and Rate of Change trading rules to the MSCI Emerging Market Index over the period of 11/1/1988 to 5/1/2017 reveals strong empirical evidence that investors could use TA to out‐perform the Buy‐and‐Hold strategy even when considering risk and transaction costs. This research provides evidence against the Efficient Market Hypothesis for EMI.     

Trade, production sharing, and the international transmission of business cycles

Countries that are more engaged in production sharing exhibit higher bilateral manufacturing output correlations. We use data on trade flows between US multinationals and their affiliates as well as trade between the United States and Mexican maquiladoras to measure production-sharing trade and its link with the business cycle. We then develop a quantitative model of international business cycles that generates a positive link between the extent of vertically integrated production-sharing trade and internationally synchronized business cycles. A key assumption in the model is a relatively low elasticity of substitution between home and foreign inputs in the production of the vertically integrated good.