Innovation forecasting: A case study of the management of engineering and technology literature

The following paper contributes to the methodology of innovation forecasting. The paper analyzes the literature of engineering and technology management. A brief history and justification for interest in engineering and technology management is presented. The field has a sixty year history of interdisciplinary, and is therefore a ripe source for closer investigation into time trends of knowledge. The paper reviews the literature of innovation forecasting, examining a range of theoretical and methodological literatures interested in the evolution of knowledge. A new application of a model, suitable for sparse and count-like publication data, is presented. A mathematical presentation of the model is offered. A discussion is offered on how the model may be implemented in an approachable way within spreadsheet software. A time history of engineering management literature is extracted from a database and analyzed using the model. A projection of keyword growth is offered, and key features of the emerging knowledge base within engineering management are discussed. Recommendations for future research, as well as for those monitoring the status of the discipline of engineering management, are made.     

Exploratory analysis of the impact of information dynamics on innovation diffusion

Understanding the dynamic nature of innovation diffusion processes, and mechanisms underlying these dynamics is crucial, since such an understanding is potentially very important in designing effective innovation support policies and developing better diffusion forecasts. The role of information diffusion in conditioning the diffusion dynamics of an innovation is the locus of this study. In order to investigate this, a simulation model that distinguishes between the real attributes of the innovation and their perceived levels by the user groups has been developed. The model makes it possible to separately trace the diffusion dynamics of innovation and the information about an innovation. Additionally, the formulation of the model enables the message broadcasted via word-of-mouth to change in nature from positive to negative, or vice versa. This generic model is used in an exploratory way, which is discussed as a novel approach for conducting a simulation-based analysis. Such an exploration covers a wide range of plausible diffusion behaviors, and aims to demonstrate the extent to which information imperfections and dynamics may influence the diffusion process. During experiments it is observed that information imperfections as well as the pace of learning processes may yield significant changes in the diffusion patterns. These changes may be in the form of altering the basic characteristics of the well-known S-shaped diffusion curve, as well as stopping the diffusion at much lower levels than full adoption. The analysis presented in the article shows that exploratory analysis is a promising way to utilize simulation models for developing general insights about dynamics processes.     

The interpretive flexibility of oil and gas pipelines: Case studies from Southeast Asia and the Caspian Sea

Based on research interviews and field research, this article explores the “interpretive flexibility” of two large pipelines: the $4.6 billion Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) oil pipeline exporting petroleum from the Caspian Sea near Azerbaijan and then traversing parts of Georgia and Turkey; and parts of the $14.2 billion Trans-ASEAN Gas Pipeline (TAGP) Network connecting the gas reserves of Indonesia, Myanmar, and Thailand with each other and Singapore. Each pipeline is the product of differing interpretations and ideologies, meaning they have “interpretive flexibility” because their meaning is under constant interpretation. The article depicts four differing interpretive frames for each pipeline, revealing the views of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, government of Thailand, government of Myanmar, and state-owned energy Malaysian energy company Petronas for the TAGP, and the World Bank Group, British Petroleum, European Union, and the government of Azerbaijan for the BTC. The article finds that pipelines not only mark the physical landscape and distribute energy fuels, they also transfer what were once customary public resources into private hands, concentrate political power, facilitate human rights abuses and possible acts of genocide, become intertwined in national discourses of revitalization and strength, and validate distinct approaches to economic and social development.     

Investing in innovation to enable global competitiveness: The case of Portugal

The concept of leveraged innovation to create wealth within regions, countries and economies is not a new concept. Competitiveness of regions in the increasingly global economy now requires not only that innovation be present within a regional economy, but also that mechanisms exist to effectively transfer those developed innovations from the research laboratory to the marketplace. It is surmised that increased innovation, and the transfer of this innovation, can lead to increased prosperity of regions (Porter). As such, many developing countries around the world are looking at investments in innovation as a means to spur regional economic development and wealth creation while preserving national competitiveness. That said, innovation investment is by no means an exact science. Historically, typical “innovation investments” have been focused on “tangible” capital infrastructure projects such as the establishment of incubators and science parks. While many regions point to the existence of such tangible innovation assets as proof of investment in innovation, it has been discovered that in some cases, an investment in the capacity building of human networks to engage in technology transfer and commercialization related activities can act as a stronger facilitator for the transformation of economies and produce a larger return on investment in innovation for the country. Given not only Portugal's, but other regions throughout the EU-Zone, recent financial and economic woes, it bears examination on whether investing in the innovation and technology transfer knowledge and “know how” of key human networks within a struggling economy is a worthwhile investment for financially struggling countries during the current times of fiscal crisis.     

Competitive diffusion of personal computer shipments in Taiwan

In this work, we explore the innovative growth of personal computer (PC) shipments from Taiwan. Using a revised Lotka-Volterra model, we estimate marketing diffusion by considering competition between desktop computers (DTs) and notebook computers (NBs). The parameters in the Lotka-Volterra model are calibrated with realistic shipment data by using ordinary least square estimation. The time trajectories of DT and NB shipments are then obtained numerically. We analyze the dynamic process of competitive relationship between the shipments of DTs and NBs. Comparisons between the well-known Bass growth model and the revised Lotka-Volterra model are also drawn. In addition, we also make an equilibrium analysis to see the character of the corresponding equilibrium point. Our research shows that there exhibits a prey-predator relationship between DT and NB products from the viewpoint of ecology. In management implication, we show how the competing interplay among the three factors of natural growth, niche capacity and interaction drives the growth of products of DTs and NBs. We also find that there exists a stable equilibrium state showing the growth-decline-plateau type of product life cycle for both DT and NB products from Taiwan, and giving an interpretation of migrating their manufacturing operations to Mainland China.     

Modeling IT relationship quality and its determinants: A potential perspective of network externalities in e-service

This article addresses the development of relationship quality in the service context of information technology (IT) based on the network externalities theory. The model predicates the IT relationship quality is influenced by both synchronization value and autarky value, whereby autarky value is influenced by the availability of complementary goods. At the same time, synchronization value is influenced by relationship commitment and perceived critical mass, while availability of complementary goods is influenced by perceived compatibility and overall installed base. Note that the autarky value represents the value generated by the product itself even if there are no other users (e.g., the printing and copying functions of a fax/printer machine), while synchronization value represents individuals’ perceived value obtained through interaction (e.g., chatting functions of Skype). The model is examined using data obtained from employees of different companies in Taiwan. The empirical findings and their implications are discussed herein.     

Enhancing rigour in the Delphi technique research

The cornerstone of good research is establishing integrity. However, identifying and gauging methodological rigour for the Delphi technique remains elusive. This is due to a number of reasons such as the ongoing epistemological debate, along with continual modifications. Consequently, the scant studies exploring rigour are mainly experimental, component specific and outdated. This paper discusses the literature on establishing rigour in Delphi studies, the methodological trinity of reliability, validity and trustworthiness. In addition it presents a discussion of the principal forms of establishing rigour, such as the application of rigour using both qualitative and quantitative measurements and corroborating results with relevant evidence in the field for each individual Delphi. Addressing such issues will help enhance the development and utilisation of rigour in the future.     

Is diversity in Delphi panelist groups useful? Evidence from a French forecasting exercise on the future of nuclear energy

This paper further enhances the analytical power of Delphi methodology by identifying the advantages, disadvantages and challenges presented by increasing diversity among panel groups. Using Delphi survey data on the future of nuclear energy in France, we analyze the origins of the variety of judgments within and between two panels: one of experts and one of laypeople. We investigate the determinants of the stability of those opinions both in one given round and over several rounds of opinion-formation. We reach an apparently paradoxical conclusion: that non-expert judgment is less stable, but not necessarily less accurate, than that of experts, judgments on the part of experts sometimes being clouded by self-interest. Apart from highlighting some factors underlying the controversy over nuclear power, our paper calls for greater participatory democracy in Delphi panels, but also demonstrates the limits of such an extension.     

The limits of policy: Public acceptance and the reform of science and technology governance

The adoption of a variety of new regulatory approaches and concepts, decision making processes and educational frames over the last three decades can be interpreted as an attempt to improve social acceptability of the process of science and technology governance. However, as argued in this paper, neither the introduction of non-standard scientific methodology and precautionary policy, nor participatory decision making, nor increased scientific-technological education are likely to significantly improve social acceptance of science and technology governance. Such reforms may shift the focus of ongoing policy debates, but do not lead to closure. In consequence, more research is needed on the complex relationship between acceptance, trust, information and participation, the implications of non-standard methodology in regulatory decision making, as well as the different interpretations that stakeholders may give to key regulatory concepts.