Notes on unequal exchange between developing and industrialised countries

Proponents of the theory of unequal exchange claim that the international division of labour is based on the exploitation of the developing countries by the industrialised countries. But the international division of labour allows the developing countries to import goods which they either could not produce themselves, or only at a higher price than they pay for the imports. The lower wage-levels in the developing countries may also help them to obtain employment at the expense of the industrialised countries. Low wages are therefore ultimately not a question of exploitation but of development priorities.     

Interpretable machine learning for real estate market analysis

Machine Learning (ML) excels at most predictive tasks but its complex nonparametric structure renders it less useful for inference and out-of sample predictions. This article aims to elucidate and enhance the analytical capabilities of ML in real estate through Interpretable ML (IML). Specifically, we compare a hedonic ML approach to a set of model-agnostic interpretation methods. Our results suggest that IML methods permit a peek into the black box of algorithmic decision making by showing the web of associative relationships between variables in greater resolution. In our empirical applications, we confirm that size and age are the most important rent drivers. Further analysis reveals that certain bundles of hedonic characteristics, such as large apartments in historic buildings with balconies located in affluent neighborhoods, attract higher rents than adding up the contributions of each hedonic characteristic. Building age is shown to exhibit a U-shaped pattern in that both the youngest and oldest buildings attract the highest rents. Besides revealing valuable distance decay functions for spatial variables, IML methods are also able to visualise how the strength and interactions of hedonic characteristics change over time, which investors could use to determine the types of assets that perform best at any given stage of the real estate investment cycle.     

Using column generation to solve extensions to the Markowitz model

Abstract

We introduce a solution scheme for portfolio optimization problems with cardinality constraints. Typical portfolio optimization problems are extensions of the classical Markowitz mean–variance portfolio optimization model. We solve such types of problems using a method similar to column generation. In this scheme, the original problem is restricted to a subset of the assets resulting in a master convex quadratic problem. Then the dual information of the master problem is used in a subproblem to propose more assets to consider. We also consider other extensions to the Markowitz model to diversify the portfolio selection within given intervals for active weights.     

How Will the Court Decide? – Tax Experts’ versus Laymen's Predictions

We conduct a survey of German tax professionals (tax advisors and revenue agents) and laymen to examine whether tax experts more accurately forecast the outcomes of five real cases from the German Federal Fiscal Court. With an average of 2.39 correct predictions among experts and an average of 2.49 correct predictions among laymen, our results reveal no significant difference in forecasting accuracy between the two groups. Additionally, neither general nor task-specific tax expertise increases the experts’ forecasting accuracy. This unpredictability of tax court decisions indicates that accounting rules and taxpayer penalties that rely on accurate predictions of tax court decisions may need to be re-evaluated. Moreover, our results indicate the existence of two types of ‘advisor bias’. First, tax advisors exhibit a significantly higher level of overconfidence in comparison to other experts (i.e. revenue agents) and laymen. In particular, they believe that they correctly predict, on average, 1.52 more cases than they actually do. Second, we find some evidence indicating that tax advisors acting as client advocates form stronger appeal recommendations than revenue agents.     

Supplier Portfolio Management for IT Services Considering Diversification Effects

By means of service-oriented architectures the IT support of processes can be designed as a portfolio of individual IT services provided by different suppliers. The processes are designed based on selection decisions between IT services that potentially have to be included. Many companies formulate a multitude of requirements for investments in IT services at ever shorter intervals. However, the scope of the desired investments usually exceeds the available budget. Thus, companies face the challenge of allocating the limited budget to investments in the most promising combination of IT services. This is hardly possible without methodical support. In addition, the allocation is often done intuitively and subject to the decision-makers’ affinity with IT. Therefore, this paper develops a quantitative, multi-period procedure model for the purpose of maximizing the enterprise value in accordance with value based management, which considers the dependencies of the periodical selection decisions. In the following, a decision logic for the heuristic solution to the selection problem is presented and its application is demonstrated by means of an illustrative case example.     

Einzelbesprechungen

Ohne Zusammenfassung     

Index of Perceived Inflation or EU Consumer Surveys?

After the euro changeover at the beginning of 2002, a marked discrepancy emerged between perceived inflation and inflation as measured by the consumer price index. To what extent are consumers still overestimating price developments even now? How reliably is this phenomenon measured by the “Index of perceived inflation” developed by Professor Brachinger? What are the findings of the consumer surveys conducted on behalf of the European Commission?

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This article represents the personal opinions of the authors and does not necessarily reflect the views of the Deutsche Bundesbank.     

Truly standard-essential patents? A semantics-based analysis

Standard-essential patents (SEPs) have become a key element of technical coordination via standard-setting organizations. Yet, in many cases, it remains unclear whether a declared SEP is truly standard-essential. To date, there is no automated procedure that allows for a scalable and objective assessment of SEP status. This paper introduces a semantics-based method for approximating the standard essentiality of patents. We provide details on the procedure that generates the measure of standard essentiality and present the results of several validation and robustness exercises. We illustrate the measure's usefulness in estimating the share of true SEPs in firm patent portfolios for several telecommunication standards.     

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