Optimal Feed Mill Blending

Commercial feed blending is a complex process consisting of many potential raw ingredients and final products. The sheer number of daily orders and final products at a typical feed mill means that raw ingredients cannot be mixed to directly produce final products in an economical fashion. As a result, the intermediate production of pellets with prespecified nutritional content is a necessity that makes the feed blending problem highly nonlinear. We discuss a nonlinear approach to feed blending and compare results from an empirical application to those from a sequential linear programming approach common to most feed mills.     

Monetary Policy and the Housing Bubble

The causes of the housing bubble are investigated using Granger causality analysis and VAR modeling methods. The study employs the S&P/Case-Shiller aggregate 10 city monthly housing price index, available in the period 1987–2010/8, the 20 city monthly housing price index for 2000–2010/8, and the federal funds rate data for the period 1987–2010/8. The findings are consistent with the view that the interest rate policy of the Federal Reserve in the period 2001–2004 that pushed down the federal funds rate and kept it artificially low was a cause of the housing price bubble.     

Debate: Local councils' dilemma of planning for uncertainty

The public expenditure implications of PFI projects in Scotland's NHS are substantial. This article compares PFI capital expenditure with projected unitary charges, examines the annual cost of existing PFI schemes and looks at future costs arising from the planned expansion of PFI. Unless the new Scottish National Party-led administration applies the breaks, the annual cost of PFI to Scotland's NHS is to increase almost five-fold, from £107.1 million in 2005/06 to £500 million by the early part of the next decade.     

The EC courts' contribution to refining the parameters of precaution

By virtue of its ambiguity, it has largely been left to the courts to flesh out the scope and application of the precautionary principle. This paper examines the contribution made by EC courts to defining the parameters of precautionary decision making. In so doing, it illustrates that, though the precautionary principle is seen to operate in a number of regulatory contexts, discernible trends in judicial interpretations of precaution and the underlying notion of ‘uncertainty’ can nevertheless be identified. In contrast with early judgments, the courts are beginning to explicitly interpret risk assessment processes as having a pivotal role in determining precautionary intervention. Rather than finding simply that circumstances of uncertainty warrant precautionary measures, the courts have started to require that clear, or ‘concrete’, evidence of harm, deriving from risk assessment, is established before intervention is justified. This paper posits three explanations for this shift: (i) the ‘better regulation’ initiative within Europe; (ii) the Commission's Communication on the Precautionary Principle; and (iii) WTO litigation on precautionary safeguard measures. The judicial move to affiliate precaution with risk assessment processes in decision making can be seen as a reflection of these factors.     

The cost-effectiveness of dulaglutide versus insulin glargine for the treatment of type 2 diabetes mellitus in Japan

Aims: Dulaglutide is a new once weekly glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) receptor agonist administered via a disposable auto-injection pen for the management of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). The objective of this study was to estimate the cost-effectiveness of dulaglutide vs insulin glargine for the management of T2DM from a Japanese healthcare perspective, in accordance with recently approved Japanese Cost-Effectiveness Guidelines.

Methods: The IQVIA CORE Diabetes Model (version 9) was used to estimate the long-term costs and effects of treatment with dulaglutide and insulin glargine. Direct comparative data from the Araki 2015 trial (NCT01584232) was used to inform the analysis. Costs associated with treatment and complications were derived from Japanese sources wherever possible and inflated to 2015 Japanese Yen (JPY). Utilities were based upon a European systematic review of diabetes utilities and adjusted for use in a Japanese population. One-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses (OWSA and PSA) were conducted on all inputs and key modeling assumptions.

Results: Dulaglutide 0.75?mg was associated with higher quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), life years (LYs), and total costs, compared to insulin glargine, resulting in an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of 416,280 JPY/QALY gained. Treatment with dulaglutide increased the time alive and free from diabetes-related complications by 4 months. OWSA and PSA indicated that results were robust to plausible variations in input parameters and modeling assumptions.

Limitations: Key limitations of this study are similar to other cost-utility analyses of diabetes, including the extrapolation of short-term clinical trial data into lifelong durations. In addition, due to the lack of robust published Japanese data, some values were derived from non-Japanese sources.

Conclusions: This analysis suggests that dulaglutide 0.75?mg may be a cost-effective treatment alternative to insulin glargine for patients with T2DM in Japan.     

Visitors’ memories of wildlife tourism: Implications for the design of powerful interpretive experiences

One of the aims of wildlife tourism is to educate visitors about the threats facing wildlife in general, and the actions needed to protect the environment and maintain biodiversity. To identify effective strategies to achieve this aim, this paper examines participants’ memories of their wildlife tourism experiences and explores processes through which such experiences can lead to long-term changes in conservation behaviour. Findings are based on 240 visitors’ extended open-ended responses to a follow-up web survey administered approximately four months after a visit to one of four marine-based wildlife tourism venues in Southeast Queensland. Qualitative analysis revealed four levels of visitor response to the experience, implying a process involving what visitors actually saw and heard (sensory impressions), what they felt (emotional affinity), thought (reflective response), and finally what they did about it (behavioural response). Recommendations are provided for ways tourism managers and wildlife interpreters can maintain and strengthen these dimensions of memorable experiences in order to enhance visitor satisfaction and encourage visitors’ long-term adoption of environmentally sustainable practices.     

Linkages between minority business characteristics and minority banks’ locations

This study presents evidence regarding differences in the financial characteristics of minority business enterprises (MBEs), contingent upon whether or not they are currently located in markets which contain minority banks. We employed Dun and Bradstreet financial data for the period 1975–83. We concluded that, on average, MBES not located in markets with minority banks were larger than the bank-related MBES, laid greater emphasis on fixed assets, and financed their businesses with more equity. The bank-related MBES apparently had greater access to debt financing and operated with greater liquidity.     

The effect of circuit breakers on expected volatility: Tests using implied volatilities

Following the 1987 stock market crash, trading controls or circuit breakers were implemented in financial markets to moderate extreme volatility. However, the effectiveness of circuit breakers on the operation of these markets is disputed. While some argue that circuit breakers curb the effects of overreaction in markets and restore confidence, others argue that these trading interruptions merely delay price movements to later periods or to other markets. This paper examines the effect of changes in circuit breaker rules on the market's expectation of future volatility. The results have policy implications and suggest that the circuit breaker rule changes have no effect on expected volatility.     

RATIONAL EXPECTATIONS AND THE DYNAMIC ADJUSTMENT OF SECURITY ANALYSTS' FORECASTS TO NEW INFORMATION

We report the results of unbiasedness tests of security analysts' earnings forecasts. By examining how analysts incorporate new information into their updated earnings forecasts we can analyze directly the effect of new information on analysts' forecast revisions and evaluate whether these revised forecasts converge to rational expectations forecasts. The forecasts made by security analysts participating in the Institutional Brokers Estimate System (IBES) database are analyzed. Using standard statistical tests, we reject the simple form of the rational expectations hypothesis. However, by extending the standard tests used in previous studies, we obtain results that suggest that analysts' earnings forecasts conform to a dynamic form of rationality. The tendency of revised forecasts to converge stochastically toward the rational expectations forecast cautions against the rejection of more complicated forms of rationality.