Future-oriented technology analysis as a driver of strategy and policy

The methodology known as strategic foresight is an important tool to be used in long-term strategic planning activities and in support of the decision making process in public as well as private sectors. This article addresses the use of strategic foresight applied to the strategic management plan for an agency that deals with the funding and promotion for the development of science, technology and innovation in Brazil, and the logic that permeated its construction, promoting an alliance of the concepts of strategy and foresight. It has as key elements the long-term vision and the adoption of participatory approach and qualitative and quantitative methods. The methodological framework involved the use of different techniques, methods and tools, including, among others, web survey, diagnosis, SWOT, future timeline, interviews, workshops and strategic roadmap.     

Encroachment Patterns of the “Best Products” from the Last Decade*

Based on the examination of 239 “best products” (all those on Business Week's annual lists from the past decade), this article tests and validates a conceptual framework identifying six ways in which new products open new markets and/or encroach on original products. Three of these six scenarios involve high‐end encroachment (the new product first opens a new high‐end market, or enters at the high end of an existing market, and then diffuses down‐market), and three scenarios involve low‐end encroachment (encroachment starts at the low end, followed by diffusion up‐market). As illustrated in a 2 × 3 matrix, high‐end encroachment ensues when the new product enhances performance with regard to the market's core attribute (low‐end encroachment ensues when this performance is diminished). The three high‐end sub‐types and three low‐end sub‐types are determined by the strength of performance along an ancillary attribute dimension. If the ancillary attribute performance is week, then the encroachment of the new product on the old market is immediate (corresponding to immediate high‐end encroachment and immediate low‐end encroachment, respectively). If the ancillary performance is moderate, then the new product expands the market at the high or low end (corresponding to new‐attribute high‐end encroachment and fringe‐market low‐end encroachment, respectively). If the ancillary performance is strong, then the new product first opens an entirely new market at the high or low end (corresponding to new‐market high‐end encroachment and detached‐market low‐end encroachment, respectively). The reliability and comprehensiveness of the encroachment framework is tested by asking a panel of eight judges to categorize each of the 239 products. Results show inter‐judge reliability of 98%, with all products falling within one of the six encroachment categories. Each of the encroachment types has unique implications on product positioning and pricing, as further discussed in the paper. Thus the model helps firms identify and analyze the various possible strategies that they might choose from when introducing new products.     

2018 WTO Trade Policy Review of Malaysia

This paper presents an academic analysis and review of the recently completed WTO Trade Policy Review (TPR) of Malaysia, 2018. This includes suggesting policies that can help to promote Malaysia's international competitiveness. We show that the sharp decline in commodity prices that started in 2014 contributed in narrowing Malaysia's trade balance and current account balance as a share of GDP. The faster decline of exports as a share of GDP compared to imports accounted for most of the substantial reduction. Further, the collapse of commodity prices was accompanied by a sharp depreciation of Ringgit Malaysia. We also show that Malaysia is losing international attractiveness in terms of FDI inflows relative to its economic size. This is evidenced by the downward trend in Malaysia's FDI performance index since 1992. Further, international tourism has fallen on average since 2014, due largely to a drop in tourist arrivals from Singapore. Policymakers should introduce policies to enhance international competitiveness, such as reforming the education system to produce skilled workers and reducing reliance on low‐skilled foreign workers.     

Damaging democracy? Security provision and turnout in Afghan elections†

In emerging democracies, elections are encouraged as a route to democratization. However, not only does violence often threaten these elections, but citizens often view as corrupt the security forces deployed to combat violence. We examine the effects of such security provision. In Afghanistan's 2010 parliamentary election, polling centers with similar histories of pre‐election violence unintentionally received different deployments of the Afghan National Police, enabling identification of police's effects on turnout. Using data from the universe of polling sites and various household surveys, data usually unavailable in conflict settings, we estimate increases in police presence decreased voter turnout by an average of 30%. Our results adjudicate between competing theoretical mechanisms through which security forces could affect turnout, and show behavior is not driven by voter anticipation of election‐day violence. This highlights a pitfall for building government legitimacy via elections in weakly institutionalized and conflict‐affected states.     

Overconfidence and Corporate Tax Policy

Review of Accounting Studies - Using a sample of firms experiencing exogenous CEO departures, we investigate whether firms with overconfident CEOs avoid more tax. We find robust evidence of a...     

Repeated Auctions with Impatient Bidders and Externalities

This article studies collusion in repeated auctions both among patient and among impatient bidders when the outside option of the participation constraint is endogenous due to negative externalities. We find that (i) there are no bidding wars along the equilibrium path both for patient and for impatient bidders; compared to the optimal collusive bidding scheme for patient bidders, that for impatient bidders involves (ii) a lower threshold type above which bidding starts when externalities are small or (iii) more frequent jumps in a bidding scheme when externalities are large. The results carry an empirical implication that we should observe either a higher probability of sales or a higher number of bid levels in auctions that are repeatedly offered in unstable markets than those offered in stable markets.     

Preferenced Trading,Quote Competition,and Market Quality: Evidence from Decimalization on the NYSE

We examine the impact of decimalization on preferenced trading in NYSE‐listed stocks and show a significant decline in preferenced trading around decimalization. For the largest NYSE stocks, the total decline is nearly 22%. We also find a negative correlation between the changes in preferenced trading and the changes in quote competition intensity, and a positive correlation between the changes in preferenced trading and the changes in spreads. Consistent with the cream skimming hypothesis, we find that abnormal changes in information asymmetry cost for NYSE trades are positively correlated with the changes in preferenced trading.     

Can mergers increase output? Evidence from the lodging industry

We find that hotel mergers increase occupancy. In some specifications, price also rises. Because these effects occur only in markets with high capacity utilization and high uncertainty, we reject simple models of price or quantity competition in favor of models of “revenue management,” where firms price to fill available capacity in the face of uncertain demand.     

Measuring returns to scale and technological change in co-operative banks: A provincial analysis of Canadian credit unions and caisses populaires

In Canada economies of scale in credit unions come not only from large single office arrangements but from external economies realized from belonging to central provincial credit unions. Making use of aggregate provincial time series and cross-sectional data, this study begins by employing a sequential Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC) test to select the most appropriate model. This procedure permits the isolation of economies of scale from technological change effects. For all provinces, economies of scale are discovered to be significantly different from 1, and for five of the eight provinces examined, technological change was statistically significant from zero. The larger the provincial organization, as illustrated by the Quebec caisses populaires, the higher we find estimates of returns to scale and technological change. An implication may be that both expansion and more centralization should be encouraged and that other provinces may be able to increase efficiency by imitating some of Quebec's operational and administrative practices.