Quality,experience, and monopoly: the Soviet market for weapons under Stalin1

Monopoly is a particular problem in markets where experience goods are traded, since the consumer cannot respond to bad experiences by switching repeat purchases to another supplier. New evidence shows how the defence ministry as buyer in the Soviet market for military goods responded to this problem by investing in an evaluation of quality prior to purchase, by showing reluctance to buy, and by exploiting the available non‐market means to influence the defence industry as supplier. The effectiveness of these stratagems was limited by the defence industry's counteractions and because the buyer had no choice but to come to a compromise with the supplier.     

The Controllability of Financial Outcomes

Accounting performance measures that capture results not controlled by the person being evaluated may be dysfunctional. The aim of this paper is to provide a framework for identifying situations in which outcomes are captured by such measures as are more (less) likely to be controllable. Results of a questionnaire survey support the claim that as task uncertainty increases, individuals perceive less control over financial outcomes.     

Improving Experienced Auditors’ Detection of Deception in CEO Narratives

We experimentally study the deception detection capabilities of experienced auditors, using CEO narratives from earnings conference calls as case materials. We randomly assign narratives of fraud and nonfraud companies to auditors as well as the presence versus absence of an instruction explaining that cognitive dissonance in speech is helpful for detecting deception. We predict this instruction will weaken auditors’ learned tendency to overlook fraud cues. We find that auditors’ deception judgments are less accurate for fraud companies than for nonfraud companies, unless they receive this instruction. We also find that instructed auditors more extensively describe red flags for fraud companies and more accurately identify specific sentences in narratives that pertain to underlying frauds. These findings indicate that instructing experienced auditors to be alert for cognitive dissonance in CEO narratives can activate deception detection capabilities.     

COMMON COSTS AND CROSS-SUBSIDIES: MISESTIMATION VERSUS MISALLOCATION

Existing models of cross-subsidization have focused on either ex ante distortions to investments or misallocations of common costs as the principal sources of cross-subsidies in regulated firms. In this paper, we identify a third vehicle for such cross-subsidization that, given regulators' preferences, is not only likely but likely to be prominent; namely, the misestimation of the magnitude of common costs. Because our results incorporate regulators' preferences, they may provide the necessary building block for a positive theory of the magnitude of observed common costs that has, heretofore, been absent in the literature. ( JEL L51, L97 )     

Constructing Asset Pricing Models With Specific Factor Loadings

We demonstrate how one can build pricing formulae in which factors other than beta may be viewed as determinants of asset returns. This is important conceptually as it demonstrates how the additional factors can compensate for a market portfolio proxy that is mis‐specified, and also shows how such a pricing model can be specified ex ante. The procedure is implemented by first selecting an ‘orthogonal’ portfolio which falls on the mean‐variance efficient frontier computed from the empirical average returns, variances and covariances on the equity securities of a large sample of firms. One then determines the inefficient index portfolio which leads to a vector of betas that when multiplied by the average return on the orthogonal portfolio, and which when subtracted from the vector of average returns for the firms comprising the sample, yields an error vector that is equal to the vector of numerical values for the variables that are to form the basis of the asset pricing formula. There will then be a perfect linear relationship between the vector of average returns for the firms comprising the sample, the vector of betas based on the inefficient index portfolio and such other factors that are deemed to be important in the asset pricing process. We illustrate computational procedures using a numerical example based on the quality of information contained in published corporate financial statements.     

Methodological Issues in Cross-Sectional and Panel Estimates of the Human Resource-Firm Performance Link

Because companies differ in factors such as management ability that may lead to both high performance work systems and enhanced firm performance, conventional estimates of the effects of human resource (HR) management practices on firm performance may be biased upward. Alternatively, if HR management practices are measured with error, estimates of their effects on firm performance may be biased downward. We find that although longitudinal estimates that avoid the first source of bias are substantially smaller than cross-sectional estimates, the former are strongly influenced by errors in measuring HR management practices. Based on independent estimates of the measurement error, we calculate a range of estimates that correct for both biases. We estimate that a one standard deviation increase in our measure of high performance work systems raises the market value of the corporation by approximately $15,000 per employee.     

Nutrition knowledge and lunchtime eating habits of secondary school children in Lothian

A total of 103 secondary school children attending five schools managed by Lothian Regional Council were surveyed to establish nutrition knowledge, attitudes and beliefs about healthy eating and their patterns of food consumption at lunchtime on schooldays. The results indicate that nutrition knowledge was surprisingly good and the children surveyed were proficient at identifying foods that were high in fibre and low in sugar, salt and fat. When questioned about their liking for foods, however, many identified foods that were characteristically high in fat, sugar and salt, and low in fibre. Examination of the dietary diaries kept at lunchtime confirmed that consumption of these types of foods was typically high, with very low consumption of fruit and vegetables being reported and high intakes of carbonated drinks, confectionery and chocolate. This conflict between nutrition knowledge and food choice patterns is discussed in the light of the probable future effects on health and the implications for health educators.