Issuer Operating Performance and IPO Price Formation

We study the relation between issuer operating performance and initial public offering (IPO) price formation from the initial price range to the offer price to the closing price on the first trading day. For a post‐bubble sample of 2001–2013 IPOs, we find that pre‐IPO net income and, in particular, operating cash flow are strongly, positively associated with the revision from the mid‐point of the initial price range to the offer price and that the “partial adjustment phenomenon” concentrates among issuers with the strongest operating performance. As for why publicly observable information helps predict changes in valuation from when the initial price range is set to when the offer price is set, our findings suggest that strong‐performing issuers, especially those offering small slices of ownership, have lower bargaining incentives and are susceptible to the underwriter(s) low‐balling the price range. Overall, our results suggest an important role for accounting information in understanding the pricing of book‐built IPOs and are consistent with the presence of agency problems between issuers and underwriters.        

From Research to Policy: Lessons from Individual Development Accounts

There goes in the world a notion that the scholar should be a recluse, a valetudinarian…. As far as this is true of the studious classes, it is not just and wise. Action is with the scholar subordinate, but it is essential…. Without it, thought can never ripen into truth… (Ralph Waldo Emerson).     

Economic Viewpoint

The search for a policy device which will yield the benefits of monetary discipline without the pain is as old as it is fruitless, and the central message of this Economic Viewpoint is that going into the EMS will not provide a magic answer to our problems. However we believe that if we go into the EMS at today's rate, and pursue monetary policies consistent with maintaining that rate, the authorities' target of 3 per cent inflation by 1988 is well within reach… Our analysis of the experience of other countries, inside and outside the EMS, over the floating rate period suggests that membership of the EMS should also reduce exchange rate fluctuations and help to create a more stable environment for business planning. However, sterling's vulnerability to oil-related fluctuations cannot be eliminated just by joining the EMS. We therefore suggest that an oil bond, which capitalises the value of our North Sea assets, is created and sold to our EMS partners, thus equalising the exposure to fluctuations in oil prices and removing one major cause of exchange rate instability.     

Corporate Financial Policy and the Value of Cash

We examine the cross‐sectional variation in the marginal value of corporate cash holdings that arises from differences in corporate financial policy. We begin by providing semi‐quantitative predictions for the value of an extra dollar of cash depending upon the likely use of that dollar, and derive a set of intuitive hypotheses to test empirically. By examining the variation in excess stock returns over the fiscal year, we find that the marginal value of cash declines with larger cash holdings, higher leverage, better access to capital markets, and as firms choose greater cash distribution via dividends rather than repurchases.     

Change You Can Believe In? Hedge Fund Data Revisions

We analyze the reliability of voluntary disclosures of financial information, focusing on widely‐employed publicly‐available hedge fund databases. Tracking changes to statements of historical performance recorded between 2007 and 2011, we find that historical returns are routinely revised. These revisions are not merely random or corrections of earlier mistakes; they are partly forecastable by fund characteristics. Funds that revise their performance histories significantly and predictably underperform those that have never revised, suggesting that unreliable disclosures constitute a valuable source of information for investors. These results speak to current debates about mandatory disclosures by financial institutions to market regulators.     

Are Professional Macroeconomic Forecasters Able To Do Better Than Forecasting Trends?

This paper investigates whether survey forecasters are able to make more accurate forecasts than simply supposing that the future values of the variable will move monotonically to the long‐run expectation. We consider the forecasts individually, and the consensus forecasts. Consensus survey forecasts are able to do so to varying degrees depending on the variable, but this ability is largely limited to forecasts of the current quarter.     

Timing Equity Issuance in Response to Information Asymmetry Arising from IFRS Adoption in Australia and Europe

This study examines the association between changes in reported financial performance resulting from mandatory adoption of International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) and equity issuance during the transition period leading up to IFRS adoption for listed firms in Australia and Europe. We hypothesize that firms affected by the accounting standards change strategically time equity issuance around the time the firm discloses the effects of IFRS adoption on reported financial performance. We document circumstances where market returns are associated with the reconciliation of net income between local GAAP and IFRS. We find that a firm's likelihood of equity issuance and equity issue size during the three years prior to the IFRS reconciliation disclosure are negatively associated with the unexpected change in net income resulting from the conversion to IFRS.     

Issues in the Hidden Economy—A Survey*

This paper discusses a number of questions concerning the so-called hidden economy. What is the hidden economy? How big is it? Is it really growing? Does it matter? What should we do about it? The paper is not an exhaustive survey of the literature on the hidden economy. Its objective is more modest - namely to present an overview of the state of research, identify the major themes and issues and provide a framework for further work.     

The Speed and Stability of Price Adjustment in Australian Manufacturing*

A model of industry speed of price adjustment is derived from firm pricing behaviour. The model is applied to quarterly two‐digit Australian manufacturing data for the period 1985 (Q3) to 2002 (Q3). The results suggest that the industry speed of price adjustment is positively related to the average size of large firms within the industry and is negatively related to industry concentration. We also find that import share has a role in attenuating the effects of industry concentration and that growth in a moving average of real gross domestic product reduces the speed of price adjustment. Calculated industry speeds of price adjustment are both stable across the period of examination and small, suggesting that manufacturing prices are sticky.