The Impact of Credit Counseling on Subsequent Borrower Behavior

The study examined the impact of individualized credit counseling delivered to nearly 8,000 consumer clients during 1997. Credit bureau data provided objective measures of credit performance at a variety of margins between 1997 and 2000 for counseled clients, relative to a comparison group of uncounseled borrowers. Receipt of counseling was associated with a positive change in borrower credit profiles. Techniques to control for self‐selection into counseling reveal that much of the improvement was attributable to characteristics unique to consumers who sought counseling. But counseling itself was associated with substantial reductions in debt and account usage, and appeared to provide the greatest benefit to those borrowers who had the least ability to handle credit prior to counseling.     

Superannuation: Switching and Roulette Wheels

The introduction of choice has resulted in Australia's superannuation system providing unprecedented flexibility (through increased investment options and the timing choices) for members to optimise their expected benefits. This paper examines the impact of switching between investment options using a normalised ranked return or "roulette wheel" approach developed by Bauer and Dahlquist (2001) for the Australian setting. The paper tests various switching strategies for both single-sector and blended options, for the period 1985–2005, finding that members require forecast accuracy of around 70% to be successful at market timing. Finally, the paper considers the impact of switching strategies on accumulated balances.     

Expertise and Knowledge Management in Public Accounting Professional Services Firms: A North American Perspective

This article identifies significant knowledge management issues experienced by North American professional services firms, obtained from a review of the literature and from interviews conducted with senior partners in three of the Big 5 firms. Professional services firms face demanding client needs in a rapidly changing global business envimnment. They must have a talented, diverse professional staff and be able to share and leverage the knowledge of this staff. The critical resource that the firms sell is knowledge. Knowledge management is at the core of this process.     

The Influence of Culture on Judgments of Accountants in Fiji

This study examines whether culture affects interpretation and application of International Accounting Standards (IAS) and International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS). Specifically, it investigates the influence of culture on the propensity to frame and execute judgments by professional accountants from two different ethnic groups in Fiji (Fijians and Indo-Fijians) while applying selected IAS/IFRS. No significant differences in the propensity to make judgments or the nature of judgments formulated by the professional accountants were detected. The results suggest that one or more sources of professional influence serve to override the different cultural values of the two ethnic groups while providing judgments.     

Covenants and Accounting Information in the Market for Classes of Preferred Stock*

Abstract. This study investigates variations in covenants across different classes of preferred stock and describes the role of accounting numbers in such covenants. The findings indicate that covenants in contracts that protect the priority of the claims of preferred stockholders are more prevalent in very debt-like preferred stock issues when there are greater anticipated conflicts over claim priority with common stockholders. When the preferred stock issues take on common equity-like interests, there is less opportunity for common stockholders to gain from diluting the priority of the claims of the preferred stockholders. Consequently, the contracts are not configured to the same extent of restrictions on wealth transfers. Audited accounting numbers are utilized extensively in these covenants, and the contracts adjust these numbers to limit management's discretion in their choice of accounting policies for relaxing the covenants. Résumé. Les auteurs analysent les différences observées dans les clauses restrictives associées à diverses catégories d'actions privilégiées et décrivent le rôle des données comptables chiffrées dans ces clauses. Les conclusions de l'étude révèlent que les clauses restrictives des contrats qui assurent la priorité des créances des actionnaires privilégiés sont plus répandues dans les émissions d'actions privilégiées s'apparentant très étroitement à des titres d'emprunt lorsque les conflits prévus avec les actionnaires ordinaires en ce qui a trait à la priorité des créances sont plus importants. Lorsque les actions privilégiées émises s'apparentent davantage à des actions ordinaires, les actionnaires ordinaires sont moins susceptibles de tirer profit d'une dilution de la priorité des créances des actionnaires privilégiés. Par conséquent, les contrats ne sont pas structurés de façon à contenir des restrictions de même portée sur les transferts de richesse. Les données comptables vérifiées sont abondamment utilisées dans ce genre de clauses restrictives, et les contrats prévoient l'ajustement des données chiffrées de façon à limiter la discrétion dont jouit la direction dans le choix des conventions comptables susceptibles d'assouplir le caractère restrictif des clauses.     

Issuer Operating Performance and IPO Price Formation

We study the relation between issuer operating performance and initial public offering (IPO) price formation from the initial price range to the offer price to the closing price on the first trading day. For a post‐bubble sample of 2001–2013 IPOs, we find that pre‐IPO net income and, in particular, operating cash flow are strongly, positively associated with the revision from the mid‐point of the initial price range to the offer price and that the “partial adjustment phenomenon” concentrates among issuers with the strongest operating performance. As for why publicly observable information helps predict changes in valuation from when the initial price range is set to when the offer price is set, our findings suggest that strong‐performing issuers, especially those offering small slices of ownership, have lower bargaining incentives and are susceptible to the underwriter(s) low‐balling the price range. Overall, our results suggest an important role for accounting information in understanding the pricing of book‐built IPOs and are consistent with the presence of agency problems between issuers and underwriters.        

Change You Can Believe In? Hedge Fund Data Revisions

We analyze the reliability of voluntary disclosures of financial information, focusing on widely‐employed publicly‐available hedge fund databases. Tracking changes to statements of historical performance recorded between 2007 and 2011, we find that historical returns are routinely revised. These revisions are not merely random or corrections of earlier mistakes; they are partly forecastable by fund characteristics. Funds that revise their performance histories significantly and predictably underperform those that have never revised, suggesting that unreliable disclosures constitute a valuable source of information for investors. These results speak to current debates about mandatory disclosures by financial institutions to market regulators.     

Forecasting National Recessions Using State‐Level Data

We investigate whether there is information useful for identifying U.S. business cycle phases contained in subnational measures of economic activity. Using a probit model to forecast the National Bureau of Economic Research expansion and recession classification, we assess the incremental information content of state‐level employment growth over a commonly used set of national‐level predictors. As state‐level data adds a large number of predictors to the model, we employ a Bayesian model averaging procedure to construct forecasts. Based on a variety of forecast evaluation metrics, we find that including state‐level employment growth substantially improves nowcasts and very short‐horizon forecasts of the business cycle phase. The gains in forecast accuracy are concentrated during months of national recession.     

STRESS AND SMOKING: ASSOCIATIONS WITH TERRORISM AND CAUSAL IMPACT

This study analyzes the effects of the Oklahoma City bombing and 9/11 terrorist attacks on stress, smoking, and smoking quit attempts using 1,657,985 observations from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System. Regression discontinuity results suggest that, in the fourth quarter of 2001, stress increased by nearly an extra half day per 30 days (11.9%) among ever smoking adults. In the 2 years after 9/11, smoking prevalence increased by 1.1 percentage points (2.3%) among ever smoking adults, resulting in between 950,000 and 1,300,000 adult former smokers becoming smokers again because of terrorism. The net cost to the government was between $530 million and $830 million through the end of 2003. Adults reported disproportionate stress increases based on community military participation and education. Simultaneity between smoking and stress is addressed by an instrumental variables model, providing validity to the hypothesized causal pathway between terrorism, stress, and smoking. This model suggests that an extra day of stress per 30 days causes a 3.4 percentage point increase in smoking among ever smoking adults. Results help to quantify a hidden cost of terrorism and provide a better understanding of utility maximization during periods of high stress. (JEL I12, I18)     

Borrowing Capacity and Financial Decisions of Low‐to‐Moderate Income First‐Time Homebuyers

This study documents the extent to which first‐time homebuyers seeking a mortgage accurately estimate their borrowing capacity and how this is associated with their decisions regarding mortgage debt and the take‐up of a free offer of financial coaching. We find that consumers who underestimate their nonmortgage debt (31.5% of the sample) also take out larger mortgages relative to income. Consumers who underestimate or overestimate their total debt as well as their monthly debt payments are more likely to accept the offer of financial coaching. Moreover, overconfidence in financial matters reduces the take‐up of financial coaching. These biases in perceived financial status appear to be systematically related to behavior among a group of relatively inexperienced consumers. These findings suggest that efforts to extend homeownership may need to include debiasing mechanisms to help less informed consumers accurately assess their current debt levels and ability to make ongoing mortgage payments.