Financial Imbalance Index as a New Early Warning Indicator： Methods and Applications in the Chinese Economy

Based on the stylized facts of financial crises and systemic risk accumulation, this paper constructs a new financial imbalance index （FII） from the perspective of endogenous financial cycles and assesses its application in China＇s macro-financial analysis. The results show that the FII is not only an effective index to detect financial imbalances in China＇s economic cycles, but is also more accurate than and plays more of a leading role than conventional indicators, such as the consumer price index, the financial conditions index and the purchasing managers indicator. Empirical analysis shows that the FII can be used as an effective indicator to measure systemic financial risk, and can provide policy-makers and market participants with useful information to make appropriate decisions.     

Convergence analysis and optimal strike choice for static hedges of general path-independent pay-offs

In this paper, we propose a new algorithm to find the optimal static replicating portfolios for general path-independent nonlinear pay-off functions and give an estimate for the rate of convergence that is absent in the literature. We choose the static replication by designing an adaptation function arising in the error bound between the nonlinear pay-off function and the linear spline approximation and derive the equidistribution equation for selecting the optimal strikes. The numerical tests for variance swaps, swaptions, static quadratic hedges and also for a jump-diffusion process, allowing for the default of the underlying asset, show that the proposed iterative equidistribution equation algorithm is simple, fast and accurate. The paper generalizes and improves the results on static replication and approximation in the literature.     

Measuring misleading information in IPO prospectuses

Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting - Newly public firms may provide misleading information about their business plans in their initial public offering (IPO) prospectuses. Using textual...     

The 52-week high momentum strategy in international stock markets

We study the 52-week high momentum strategy in international stock markets proposed by George and Hwang [George, T., Hwang, C.Y., 2004. The 52-week high and momentum investing. Journal of Finance 59, 2145-2176.]. This strategy produces profits in 18 of the 20 markets studied, and the profits are significant in 10 markets. The 52-week high momentum profits exist independently from the Jegadeesh and Titman [Jegadeesh, N., Titman, S., 1993. Returns to buying winners and selling losers: implications for market efficiency. Journal of Finance 48, 65-91.] individual stock and Moskowitz and Grinblatt [Moskowitz, T.J., Grinblatt, M., 1999. Do industries explain momentum? Journal of Finance 54, 1249-1290] industry momentum strategies. These profits do not show reversals in the long run. We find that the 52-week high is a better predictor of future returns than macroeconomic risk factors or the acquisition price. The individualism index, a proxy to the level of overconfidence, has no explanatory power to the variations of the 52-week high momentum profits across different markets. However, the profits are no longer significant in most markets once transaction costs are taken into account.     

规划建设沿边经济带的政策思考

规划建设沿边经济带是巩固边疆的战略举措,有利于保障国土安全和边疆社会稳定,促进区域协调发展,增进民族团结,改善与邻国边疆局面的关系.目前,自然地理条件普遍较差,人口分布稀少,经济发展和基础设施建设滞后,城市发育不足,营商环境不佳是我国沿边经济带发展的主要制约因素.规划建设沿边经济带,应以地级行政区为基础单元,聚焦于培育新的经济增长极、完善区域性中心城市功能和改善营商环境,需要国家和地方政府的大力支持,推进体制机制创新,加强国内区域和国际区域次区域合作.     

安徽:打造农村文明交通名片

正近年来,随着农村道路建设步伐的不断加快和机动车辆的不断增加,农村交通安全问题也日益突出。安徽交警加强多部门协作联动,围绕实施"文明交通行动计划"工作重点,开展农村地区交通安全宣传工作,全力打造农村文明交通名片。推动文明交通进农村安徽省长助理、省公安厅厅长李建中对农村交通安全管理工作高度重视,在省十二届人大常委会第八次会议联组会议暨全省农村公路建设发展情况省人大代表专题询问会上,提出了以农村公路交通事故数下降、事故     

债权人主义视阈下商业银行大股东行为约束之完善

以利益相关者理论为基石的债权人主义是在商业银行特殊治理模式下对股东至上主义的制度修正.债权人主义下,发挥债权人的公众监督作用是强化商业银行大股东行为约束、实现债权人权益保护的重要途径.然而现行的商业银行大股东行为约束制度存在外部宏观审慎监管引发利益相关者的道德风险,内部商业银行公司治理独立董事作用难以发挥等公众监管实质缺失等问题.因此,债权人主义视阈下完善商业银行大股东行为约束,外部监管要充分发挥债权人作为重要利益相关者的公众监督作用,内部公司治理要重构董事会,发挥独立董事的"居中裁判"作用,为债权人的利益发声.     

Feed use intensification and technical efficiency of dairy farms in New Zealand

In recent years, the traditionally pasture‐based dairy farms in New Zealand have become more intensive by using higher proportions of supplementary feed. This trend has been attributed to a range of factors, such as productivity enhancement, overcoming pasture deficits and the improvement of body condition scores. However, there is a lack of knowledge as to how feed use intensification affects the technical efficiency of dairy farms in New Zealand. This paper addresses the research gap by estimating the impact of feed use intensification on the technical efficiency of New Zealand dairy farms, using a fixed effects stochastic production frontier model and a balanced panel of 257 farms from 2010 to 2013. The empirical results show that technical efficiency on New Zealand dairy farms is positively and significantly influenced by feed use intensification, herd size and milking frequency.