A systematic approach to technological forecasting

Past attempts to rationalize the many methods of technological forecasting have not been sufficiently practical; they have largely been based on an abstract sort of classification while their use has been of an ad hoc nature. This paper reviews the position and puts forward a rationale leading to a more logical classification of methods and a systematic approach to their use in practice. The proposed classification and systematic use of the many methods is based on the concept that a technological forecast has four prime elements or dimensions, qualitative, quantitative, time and probability. Only when all these elements are provided can a technological forecast be responsibly used in decision making in R & D and corporate planning.     

Cognitive skill and technology diffusion: An empirical test

Cognitive skills are robustly associated with good national economic performance. How much of this is due to high-skill countries doing a better job of absorbing total factor productivity from the world's technology leader? Following Benhabib and Spiegel (Handbook of Economic Growth, 2005), who estimated the Nelson–Phelps technology diffusion model, I use the database of IQ tests assembled by Lynn and Vanhanen, 2002, Lynn and Vanhanen, 2006 and find a robust relationship between national average IQ and total factor productivity growth. Controlling for IQ, years of education is of modest statistical significance. If IQ gaps between countries persist and model parameters remain stable, TFP levels are forecasted to sharply diverge, creating a “twin peaks” result. After controlling for IQ, few other growth variables are statistically significant.     

Let’s Not Go Down that Path Again: Lessons from the Past Applied to Immigrant-Targeted Discrimination

Immigrants, both legal and illegal, are a staple of the modern United States workplace. While much of the discussion of this fact centers on negative consequences for the U.S., far less attention has been paid to the detrimental impact on immigrants resulting from their workplace experiences, particularly relating to being targets of discrimination. In this article, we outline: a) a variety of types of workplace discrimination potentially relating to immigrant status; b) potential negative outcomes arising from said discrimination for both immigrant employees and their employers, and; c) how existing and predicted employment law standards place organizations in a legally vulnerable position when such discrimination goes unchecked. We further discuss implications of immigrant-targeted discrimination (ITD) for organizations and managers, and plausible extensions of workplace discrimination laws to specifically include ITD.     

The effects of privatization on productive efficiency: evidence from the Baltic republics

By using new and unusual data sets for large samples of firms in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania we find that, since privatization, diverse patterns of enterprise ownership have emerged and ownership configurations are quite dynamic.   To test competing theories on the productivity effects of alternative ownership structures, identical cross sectional production functions specifications are estimated for each country for varying years during 1993 1996. While the effects of private ownership upon productivity are found to vary considerably over time and across countries, productivity effects are always found to be either zero or positive, thus providing partial support for the hypothesis that state ownership is less efficient than private ownership.   Findings are mixed concerning hypotheses on the effects of particular ownership structures. Often (e.g. for Lithuania) estimates indicate that all forms of private ownership have zero productivity effects. However, some estimates for Estonia provide support for the mainstream hypothesis that outside (and especially foreign) ownership is preferred to insider ownership. But in other estimates (again for Estonia) majority ownership by employees is found to deliver better business performance than majority ownership by managers (thus refuting the hypothesis that the preferred form of insider ownership is ownership by managers).     

Competitive trade models and real world features

Competitive small-dimension international trade models perform well in comparing free (or restrictive) trade with autarky, especially in emphasizing that consumption patterns can differ from production patterns and that production becomes highly concentrated while consumption patterns are expanded. Variations on these small-dimensional models can usefully show how with trade production patterns may nonetheless be more diverse and a country’s labor force become more heterogeneous in its skills. The paper illustrates how the Middle Products framework can be reinterpreted to support variety in production and in labor skills.      

Telematics: Decision Time for Detroit

With implications for navigation, safety, entertainment and vehicle maintenance as well as regulation and infrastructure investment in roads, telematics has the potential to transform driving more than any other innovation for decades. In the already well-established Asian telematics industry, revenue tends to come from extra charges at the time of vehicle-sale, with most subsequent services provided free. The US model has evolved differently, with much of the cost of telematics hardware and software subsidized in the initial vehicle sale price and revenue coming from services used. The decision to invest in telematics is therefore riskier in the US. This article first briefly summarizes the potential of telematics. It then analyzes the investment risks, particularly for automakers. It concludes with recommendations on how the US auto industry can minimize risk and make the most of the opportunities.     

Developing countries and the future of the automobile industry

This paper reassesses the controversial view which has assumed that, at some point in the future, the global automobile industry, having reached maturity, would naturally migrate to the leading developing countries where the markets are growing more rapidly and wages are substantially lower. The authors argue that the threshold facing a developing country seeking to establish a domestic automobile industry has risen because of two recent developments: the rise of Japan as a major automobile producer; and a new wave of technological and organizational innovation. This involves use of state-of-the-art microelectronics and flexible manufacturing system, as well as complete restructing of component supply resulting in considerable unit cost and lead-time advantages.The authors look at what these trends mean for both the OECD and the developing countries. They outline the conventional view in more detail and then present an alternative analysis of the evolution of the industry. New policy options for the developing countries are spotlighted.     

Accounting Revolution at Oxford in 1882. The Case of a Governmental ‘Deus ex Machina’

In 1882 new statutes were prepared for the University and colleges of Oxford. This paper looks at the legislative developments leading up to these changes, and by examining the case of Magdalen College shows how these external pressures led to the replacement of charge and discharge accounting by double entry bookkeeping and the appointment of external auditors.     

Human resources in Sino-foreign joint ventures: selected case studies in Shanghai,compared with Beijing

This article examines HRM in joint ventures (JVs) in Shanghai compared with those in Beijing using a case-study approach. It focuses primarily on issues relating to labour contracts, rewards and benefits, social insurance, trade unions and personnel policies, and describes current developments in China in each of these areas. In order to place these JV human resource practices in context, we also draw on interviews in state-owned enterprises (SOEs) in Shanghai and Beijing. Taking as a starting point a summary of traditional SOE 'iron rice-bowl' ( tie fan wan ) practices in the management of personnel, we ask to what extent HRM in the present JV sample differs from traditional methods and to what extent 'iron rice-bowl' practices continue despite foreign ownership. The extent to which HR practices in JVs are distinct from those in contemporary SOEs is also examined. We conclude that, although, as one would expect, foreign ownership has modified traditional practice, the degree and extent to which this is true varies widely. There is strong evidence of institutional and organizational continuity in 'iron rice-bowl' practices in both JVs and SOEs. Finally we propose a framework for categorizing the companies investigated in terms of their distance from traditional 'iron rice-bowl' HR practices and proximity to 'imported' practices. This consists of two 'pure' and two hybrid categories: pure 'iron rice-bowl'; hybrid I (predominantly local); hybrid II (predominantly imported): and, finally, pure imported. In this schema, the companies examined do not however group neatly according to whether they are JVs or SOEs.