Predicting Corporate Bankruptcy: An Evaluation of Alternative Statistical Frameworks

Corporate bankruptcy prediction has attracted significant research attention from business academics, regulators and financial economists over the past five decades. However, much of this literature has relied on quite simplistic classifiers such as logistic regression and linear discriminant analysis (LDA). Based on a large sample of US corporate bankruptcies, we examine the predictive performance of 16 classifiers, ranging from the most restrictive classifiers (such as logit, probit and linear discriminant analysis) to more advanced techniques such as neural networks, support vector machines (SVMs) and “new age” statistical learning models including generalised boosting, AdaBoost and random forests. Consistent with the findings of Jones et al. ( 2015 ), we show that quite simple classifiers such as logit and LDA perform reasonably well in bankruptcy prediction. However, we recommend the use of “new age” classifiers in corporate bankruptcy modelling because: (1) they predict significantly better than all other classifiers on both the cross‐sectional and longitudinal test samples; (2) the models may have considerable practical appeal because they are relatively easy to estimate and implement (for instance, they require minimal researcher intervention for data preparation, variable selection and model architecture specification); and (3) while the underlying model structures can be very complex, we demonstrate that “new age” classifiers have a reasonably good level of interpretability through such metrics as relative variable importances (RVIs).     

The fundraiser's journey: A developmentally informed,grounded theory analysis

Fundraisers play a vital role in the success of nonprofit organizations, yet relatively little is known about the experiences, motivations, and thought processes that inform their career choice and development. This exploratory, cross-comparative case study of 3 fundraisers addresses this gap in the literature by examining some formative influences on fundraisers' careers, their professional growth aspirations and opportunities, and how, if at all, they engage in personal philanthropy. Results suggest that fundraisers' aptitudes, skills, and abilities may influence their career choice more than a sense of connection to the nonprofit sector or organizational mission. Further, fundraisers seek opportunities to exercise leadership at the individual, organizational, and community levels. Additionally, their personal philanthropy and social embeddedness play integral roles in their professional development. Although not large enough for generalization, these results suggest the need to study fundraisers holistically, including their psychological development and social embeddedness over time. We argue for the need to move beyond traditional marketing and public relations perspectives to explain fundraising. Instead, future studies should adopt a service-dominant logic framing that considers fundraisers as part of a larger philanthropic ecosystem. We conclude with several questions to guide future studies toward this line of inquiry.     

A model of serious leisure identification: the case of football fandom

Stebbins (1992) has suggested that the ‘profit hypothesis’, whereby the perceived benefits of taking part in an activity exceed the perceived costs, can be used to explain continued engagement in serious leisure activities. This argument, however, fails to explain the continued participation in such activities where the costs to the individual seem to exceed the rewards. This paper adopts a social identity perspective to identify and demonstrate the role of four compensatory behaviours – in-group favouritism, out-group derogation, unrealistic optimism, and voice – in ensuring continued participation in serious leisure. Such behaviours are described in the context of one particular serious leisure activity – that of football fandom – to explain why engagement in such an apparently unrewarding activity is maintained. A model of serious leisure participation is presented based upon these behaviours     

Cross-cultural competence in the context of NGOs: bridging the gap between ‘knowing’ and ‘doing’

Abstract

International human resource management research in non-governmental organisations (NGOs) is scarce and it predominantly focuses on the recruitment and retention of volunteers. The context of NGOs is different from conventional for-profit international business settings with different kinds of challenges, especially in terms of providing appropriate training on managing multi-cultural teams and working with local project partners and communities. The literature also tends to focus on expatriate perspective and not on a host country perspective. We address this gap by examining how project managers and hosts experience cross-cultural issues on overseas assignments. We study volunteer project managers leading international and local youth volunteers during the Raleigh International programme in Malaysia. We use a qualitative methodology and data collected at 3 case locations via participant observation during 120 days contact with the respondents as well as interviews and surveys. We propose the CPACE (Curiosity, Passion, Adaptability, Communication and Empathy) framework describing competences needed in cross-cultural encounters and based on respondents’ actions as well as their words and it is relevant to a NGO context. The framework is intended to lay the foundation for future research and in particular to demonstrate the need for cross-cultural competence to be more grounded in particular contexts.     

Not part of the family? The limits to managing the corporate way in international hotel chains

Companies increasingly seek solutions to the corporate/local dichotomies perceived to be a feature of more traditional approaches to managing across national boundaries. At the human resource level, the rhetoric of transnationalism emphasizes integration being achieved through 'soft' mechanisms, such as corporate culture devices, which encourage all managers to develop an international (for this read corporate) perspective on what they do. In theory, managerial staff are recruited and promoted on a 'best person for the job' basis and national identities are played down. Drawing upon evidence from three international hotel chains (one American, one French and one Swedish), this paper argues that there is a disjuncture between corporate culture devices which assume that they can transcend national origins and the issues of interest and identity which inform the activities and experiences of managers at unit level. The paper suggests that companies need to be aware of the danger of assuming that one can be trained to be 'one of the family'. Rather, we argue that local managers are potentially disadvantaged in terms of career progression as managers from the parent country utilize criteria of acceptability informed by processes of socialization which are more institutionally embedded and derived than has been assumed.     

Motivations and Barriers to Corporate Environmental Management

This paper integrates two conceptual frameworks, utility maximization and institutional theory, to analyze voluntary corporate environmental management. The utility maximization or economic approach centers on motivations to decrease cost, increase revenue and improve manager utility. Institutional theory emphasizes how external pressures from market and non‐market constituents shape the firm's environmental efforts. We view the two frameworks as complementary and postulate a model that includes both types of influences. Survey data from six major industries consisting of a diverse set of facilities are used to estimate the effects of economic and institutional factors on a facility's use of environmental practices and pollution‐prevention activities. Our results support the hypothesized model, and show that cost barriers, management attitudes toward environmental stewardship, company ownership and external institutional forces, including competitiveness, investor and regulatory pressures, all affect a facility's environmental practices and pollution prevention activities. Findings suggest that a multifaceted policy strategy is needed to advance corporate environmental management across diverse firms. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment     

Consumers as researchers – innovative experiences in UK National Health Service Research

Consumer involvement is an established priority in UK health‐ and social‐care service development and research. To date, little has been published describing the process of consumer involvement and assessing ‘consumers’ contributions to research. This paper provides a practical account of the effective incorporation of consumers into a research team, and outlines the extent to which they can enhance the research cycle; from project development and conduct, through data analysis and interpretation, to dissemination. Salient points are illustrated using the example of their collaboration in a research project. Of particular note were consumers' contributions to the development of an ethically enhanced, more robust project design, and enriched data interpretation, which may not have resulted had consumers not been an integral part of the research team.     

International Activity of Japanese Department Stores

Japanese retailers have embarked on a number of overseas developments. Department store operators have instituted wide networks of representative oflces in locations chosen primarily as sources of luxury goods. Additionally, they have developed overseas branches to service Japanese tourists and, increasingly, local populations, particularly in the Far East. The location and nature of these operations are identified. Consideration is given to the stated globalisation policies of some firms, and the implication of new competitors for occidental companies highlighted. The internationalis