Forecasting interest rates with shifting endpoints

We consider forecasting the term structure of interest rates with the assumption that factors driving the yield curve are stationary around a slowly time‐varying mean or ‘shifting endpoint’. The shifting endpoints are captured using either (i) time series methods (exponential smoothing) or (ii) long‐range survey forecasts of either interest rates or inflation and output growth, or (iii) exponentially smoothed realizations of these macro variables. Allowing for shifting endpoints in yield curve factors provides substantial and significant gains in out‐of‐sample predictive accuracy, relative to stationary and random walk benchmarks. Forecast improvements are largest for long‐maturity interest rates and for long‐horizon forecasts. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Internationalizing audit education

Audit education is typically offered only to accounting majors. We argue that auditing provides a way of thinking that could serve as a framework for an accounting curriculam. We describe two parts of a course content that could be incorporated into an existing auditing course or a begining accounting course. The first section emphasizes accountability; the second emphasizes the role of the auditor in the accountability process. The concepts are best taught within an international paradigm that permits examination of various institutional environments.     

Shifting models of equality? Union Equality Reps in the public services

This article explores how far the emergence of public sector Equality Representatives represents a departure from a distinct radical model of union self‐organisation generated by the collective mobilisation of politically conscious identities, towards a more inclusive liberal model of equality based on abstract notions of ‘fairness’.     

Counting the cost: the reserve price scheme for wool 1970‐2001

This paper provides a policy commentary on the collapse in 1991 of the Australian Reserve Price Scheme for wool. A key cause of the collapse in the Scheme was a change in the RPS's governance arrangements, which led to increased political pressures to raise prices to unsustainable levels. In addition, in this paper an estimation has been made of the direct, upfront costs of the operation of the scheme, drawing on the financial accounts of the various agencies operating the RPS and subsequent wool stockpile. This was undertaken to determine the scale of the policy failure.     

On globalization ‘with Chinese characteristics’?

This Commentary looks at Globalization ‘with Chinese Characteristics’ (quanqiu hua yu zhongguo tese) as revealed through the lens of President Xi Jinping’s recent speech to the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland in January, 2017. In this, he sets out a positive role for the PRC in the ‘Globalization’ stakes. He also puts himself forward as ‘Expert’, rather than ‘Red’, in the ongoing polemic on the benefits of further reductions in barriers to doing business. But whether this may be taken at its face value remains to be seen. Whilst the Chinese appear to promote more of ‘Globalization’ and the Americans seem to retreat from the model, the world economic community may well suspend its judgement.     

The impact of prior working papers on auditor evidential planning judgments

There has been significant concern in auditing about the effects of relying on prior working papers in planning audit procedures (“anchoring”). This study employed an experiment with varying information sets: prior working papers, current year information and “scenario” (summarized prior year information). Practicing auditors were asked to design a substantive audit program for a case where changes in the client's environment dictated additional procedures. A consensus program from three partners was used as a bench-mark. Experimental groups were about equally adaptive to the changing environment. However, auditors provided with prior working papers demonstrated lower efficiency. The scenario group exhibited both high relative effectiveness and efficiency, while current information subjects displayed the lowest overall level of performance.     

The Role of Ideas in Understanding Industrial Relations Policy Change in Liberal Market Economies

This paper analyzes the uneven processes underpinning industrial relations policy liberalization in New Zealand, Australia, the UK, and Ireland. Drawing upon 140 elite interviews and building upon ideational comparative political theories, the paper highlights the role of ideas in the policy change process. It identifies how particular ideas can be used to construct policy problems, how these ideas can gain legitimacy through battles with competing ideas, and how policy legacies can influence whether ideas take root. The findings from the comparative case analysis expose a critical difference between “positive legacies” and “negative legacies” to account for different liberalization trajectories.