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Dick van Dijk Siem Jan Koopman Michel van der Wel Jonathan H. Wright 《Journal of Applied Econometrics》2014,29(5):693-712
We consider forecasting the term structure of interest rates with the assumption that factors driving the yield curve are stationary around a slowly time‐varying mean or ‘shifting endpoint’. The shifting endpoints are captured using either (i) time series methods (exponential smoothing) or (ii) long‐range survey forecasts of either interest rates or inflation and output growth, or (iii) exponentially smoothed realizations of these macro variables. Allowing for shifting endpoints in yield curve factors provides substantial and significant gains in out‐of‐sample predictive accuracy, relative to stationary and random walk benchmarks. Forecast improvements are largest for long‐maturity interest rates and for long‐horizon forecasts. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
34.
James A. yardley Gail B. Wright N. Leroy Kauffman 《Accounting Education: An International Journal》2013,22(2):155-165
Audit education is typically offered only to accounting majors. We argue that auditing provides a way of thinking that could serve as a framework for an accounting curriculam. We describe two parts of a course content that could be incorporated into an existing auditing course or a begining accounting course. The first section emphasizes accountability; the second emphasizes the role of the auditor in the accountability process. The concepts are best taught within an international paradigm that permits examination of various institutional environments. 相似文献
35.
This article explores how far the emergence of public sector Equality Representatives represents a departure from a distinct radical model of union self‐organisation generated by the collective mobilisation of politically conscious identities, towards a more inclusive liberal model of equality based on abstract notions of ‘fairness’. 相似文献
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Malcolm C. Munro 《Canadian Journal of Administrative Sciences / Revue Canadienne des Sciences de l\u0027Administration》1986,3(2):359-375
A major problem infield research in Management Information Systems (mis) is that of controlling and measuring complex behavioural and organizational factors. This paper addresses the difficulties of field research in the area of Information Requirements Analysis (ira) and examines the relationship between the concept of information value and ira. Measurement of the value of information is thus identified as a major source of experimental difficulty. The use of subjective evaluation by users is suggested as a possible approach, and the absence of conclusive field experiments in ira is noted. Possible reasons why a particular field experiment utilizing subjective evaluations did not yield conclusive results are examined. Re-analysis of the data of that study with a new technique yielded more convincing results demonstrating that obtaining significant results in ira field experiments is possible. It is noted that although statistically significant results are not uncommon in laboratory experiments (e.g., simulations), such successes in mis field experiments are rare. The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate that meaningful results can be obtained in an ira field experiment if the experimental design and technique of analysis are appropriate. Résumé Un des problèmes majeurs dans la recherche relative aux problèmes de gestion de l'information (sgi) est de contrǒler et mesurer les facteurs complexes de comportement et les facteurs organisationnels. Cette étude traite des difficultés que pose la recherche dans le domaine de l'analyse des exigences requises (aer) et examine la relation entre le concept de valeur de l'information et I'aer. La mesure de la valeur de l'information est donc identifiée comme source de difficulté expérimentale. L'usage d'évaluation subjective par les utulisateurs est suggéré à titre d'approche possible et l'absence d'expériences concluantes dans le domaine de I'aer est notée. Les raisons pour laquelle une expérience particulière menée avec des évaluations subjectives n'a pas fourni de résultats concluants ont ete examinées. 相似文献
38.
The Role of Ideas in Understanding Industrial Relations Policy Change in Liberal Market Economies 下载免费PDF全文
This paper analyzes the uneven processes underpinning industrial relations policy liberalization in New Zealand, Australia, the UK, and Ireland. Drawing upon 140 elite interviews and building upon ideational comparative political theories, the paper highlights the role of ideas in the policy change process. It identifies how particular ideas can be used to construct policy problems, how these ideas can gain legitimacy through battles with competing ideas, and how policy legacies can influence whether ideas take root. The findings from the comparative case analysis expose a critical difference between “positive legacies” and “negative legacies” to account for different liberalization trajectories. 相似文献
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There has been significant concern in auditing about the effects of relying on prior working papers in planning audit procedures (“anchoring”). This study employed an experiment with varying information sets: prior working papers, current year information and “scenario” (summarized prior year information). Practicing auditors were asked to design a substantive audit program for a case where changes in the client's environment dictated additional procedures. A consensus program from three partners was used as a bench-mark. Experimental groups were about equally adaptive to the changing environment. However, auditors provided with prior working papers demonstrated lower efficiency. The scenario group exhibited both high relative effectiveness and efficiency, while current information subjects displayed the lowest overall level of performance. 相似文献
40.
Malcolm Abbott David Merrett 《The Australian journal of agricultural and resource economics》2019,63(4):790-813
This paper provides a policy commentary on the collapse in 1991 of the Australian Reserve Price Scheme for wool. A key cause of the collapse in the Scheme was a change in the RPS's governance arrangements, which led to increased political pressures to raise prices to unsustainable levels. In addition, in this paper an estimation has been made of the direct, upfront costs of the operation of the scheme, drawing on the financial accounts of the various agencies operating the RPS and subsequent wool stockpile. This was undertaken to determine the scale of the policy failure. 相似文献